US Gulf:
NOLA urea continued to climb on limited supply and strong, early demand. The market was pegged at a high of $408-$417/st FOB for loaded barge transactions during the week, with full March business quoted at $403-$410/st FOB. Trades were also confirmed in the $382-$385/st FOB range for the first five days of April, with first-half April business reported at $375-$380/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was quoted solidly at the $455-$460/st level FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, though some locations were reportedly sold out for March. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market remained at $455-$460/st FOB, unchanged from last week, with most Illinois River terminals pegged in the same range.
The latest urea offers in Michigan firmed to a high of $490-$500/st FOB on a spot basis for March-April tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices edged up to $445-$470/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices narrowed to a firm $485-$495/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with both the high and low reported at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., during the week, depending on supplier.
South Central:
Urea prices continued to climb in the South Central region, fueled by tight supply and steadily firming NOLA barge prices.
The regional terminal market strengthened to $455-$475/st FOB, up from last week’s broad $425-$460/st FOB range. The low was confirmed at Memphis, Tenn., and out of spot Ohio River terminals in Kentucky, with the high reported in Arkansas.
Southeast:
Urea firmed to $435-$440/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up from $410-$435/st FOB the week before. The latest offers in the Northeast were pegged at $440-$450/st FOB Baltimore, Md., and Fairless Hills, Pa., up from $430-$445/st FOB last week.
India:
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) called the long-awaited urea tender on March 15. The tender will close on March 27 with a shipping deadline of May 20. The buyer did not specify a quantity it was seeking in the tender, though sources previously speculated that the final take would land below 1 million mt.
Sources said there are enough urea reserves on hand in the country to cover India’s seasonal needs without a large purchase. Previous tenders in April/May provide little guidance as to what will happen this year. The tonnage has ranged from 375,000 mt in April 2019 to 1.6 million mt in May 2022.
The long shipping period could allow for some Chinese urea to be included in offers. There are expectations that China will allow urea to be exported beginning on May 1. There is still some question whether the government will allow large quantities for export or if it will restrict offshore sales to smaller lots for regional buyers.
If China limits the amount of urea available for India, the tender will have to depend on product sourced from the Arab Gulf and Russia, with smaller lots possibly coming from Southeast Asia.
Getting product from Russia can go one of two ways. One will require transiting the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. Many ship owners are reluctant to send their vessels into the area, and those that do are on the hook for massive insurance charges. Alternatively, vessels can take the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.
In both cases, the shipping costs are high enough that any Black Sea provider will have to take a serious reduction in their netback to be competitive with the Arab Gulf suppliers.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea out of the area was quoted down to $290-$300/mt FOB. Sources reported a granular sale from Azerbaijan at $350/mt FOB loading from Poti, in the far eastern end of the Black Sea. The price range for Black Sea granular is now pegged at $300-$376/mt FOB. Poti has become a major source of urea from the region, as it is well clear of the Ukraine-Russian war zone.
Turkish urea imports fell slightly in January, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 280,000 mt from 298,000 mt in January 2023. Egypt led suppliers with 112,000 mt, followed by Oman with 105,000 mt and Turkmenistan with 39,000 mt.
Mediterranean:
Spanish and French urea buyers are reportedly well-covered, resulting in minimal new import demand. Offers into Italy at $405-$410/mt CFR did not garner much interest either, and one sale below $400/mt CFR was suggested but could not be confirmed.
Offers in nearby Romania were reported at $400/mt CFR. Based on these reports and amid muted demand and illiquidity, granular urea prices in the Mediterranean slipped to $400-$410/mt CFR, down from last week’s $405-$420/mt range.
Once Mediterranean buyers decide to step back into the market, they are likely to be met with sufficient North African availability, with Egypt still understood to have up to 30,000 mt not yet committed for March.
Indonesia:
A lack of new business from Indonesia left traders talking about the impact of recent prilled urea sales on the granular market.
Last week’s $355/mt FOB sale of prilled urea led sources to estimate the market’s granular urea price at $365-$370/mt FOB, some $15-$20/mt below the price achieved in the last granular tender, but matching what many market players were already talking about for the next granular sale out of Indonesia.
With Gurun and Bintulu still down in Malaysia and Brunei committed for March, supply in Southeast Asia remains snug.
Middle East:
The withdrawal of Vietnam and Australia as major buyers has led to a slump in Middle East pricing. While no new deals have been confirmed, some smaller deals have reportedly caused the low end of the market to dip to $370/mt FOB, leaving a range of $370-$380/mt FOB.
The paper market reflected an even more dramatic fall, with March prices quoted at $350-$365/mt FOB and April at $327-$340/mt FOB.
The Egyptian market remained quiet during the week. While sources did report a 30,000 mt granular sale to Argentina, no prices were attached to the deal. Producers are struggling to keep price discussions above $380/mt FOB, traders said, representing a significant drop from the last-done $406/mt FOB price out of Egypt.
The paper market backed up the idea of softer prices. March quotes came in at $360-$370/mt FOB, and April quotes at $345-$350/mt FOB.
China:
Reports are circulating that China is allowing some producers to talk with traders about urea exports. Nothing firm has been announced as to when the exports will be allowed, however, nor regarding how many tons will be permitted to ship.
Sources continue to expect an official announcement in early April indicating that the official export paperwork may begin on April 15, but with nothing allowed to ship until May 1.
Until actual export deals are secured, sources have been looking at the price of domestic urea either from the factory gate or regional warehouses. Based on these values, the estimated export price for prilled urea has edged up to $360-$370/mt FOB. Traders stressed that these numbers represent an intellectual exercise, as no deals have concluded and no urea has been sold for export.
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices declined 6.3%, to $365-$375/mt CFR from last week’s flat $395/mt CFR, with tons arriving in April setting the bottom of the range. Product originating from sanctioned countries transacted at $350-$355/mt CFR against bids reported at $340/mt CFR.
Rondonópolis references fell to $505-$510/mt FOB ex-warehouse, narrowing from last week’s $500-$520/mt FOB. Negotiations for the 2025 second corn crop have advanced in the Nova Mutum, Lucas do Rio Verde, Tapurá, and Sorriso regions of Mato Grosso, sources said, but remained inactive in other parts of the state. According to reports, the deals were done on a barter basis using corn harvested during the 2024 second corn crop.
January-February urea imports to Brazil totaled 1.2 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 17% from the year-ago 1 million mt. Nigeria accounted for about one-quarter of the imports with 286,000 mt, while Qatar supplied 197,000 mt and Oman sent 165,000 mt. February imports were 490,000 mt, a 40% increase from the 349,000 mt received one year earlier.