US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia contract for April was concluded at $475/mt CFR, up $30/mt from the March settlement of $445/mt CFR. Industry watchers had been expecting an increase, citing firming inland prices and tight supply following an early start to spring demand.
The Tampa bump also pushed Caribbean and NOLA barge prices higher, with the former moving to an indicative $420/mt FOB and the latter to $432/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices in the Eastern Cornbelt continued to rise, fueled by extremely tight supply and strong, early demand. Most terminals were quoted in the $635-$660/st FOB range at midweek, where tons were available, up from the prior week’s $625-$645/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio, and the higher numbers in Illinois and Indiana. Sources late in the week said some locations had even edged up to the $670-$675/st FOB level on a spot basis.
“Ammonia availability for new prompt sales is almost nonexistent in the southern half of Illinois and in eastern Indiana,” commented one regional contact at midweek. “Terminals are empty and loading off the pipe.”
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices ramped up again in the Western Cornbelt as the early season drained terminals and forced suppliers to move tons from one location to another to meet demand. Pricing in Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri firmed to $645-$670/st FOB during the week, up from the prior $615-$635/st FOB range, with the low confirmed in Nebraska and the high in Missouri.
Ammonia prices also strengthened in Oklahoma, moving to $615-$625/st FOB from the prior $590-$615/st FOB range.
Northern Plains:
Sources reported firming ammonia prices in the Northern Plains, with the earliest application still estimated at three to four weeks out in the region. Spring pricing was quoted at $650/st FOB regional terminals, up from $635-$640/st FOB, with the latest delivered offers at the $650-$670/st level.
Northwest Europe:
Natural gas prices in Europe have edged higher to around $9/mmBtu but are expected to remain range-bound as Europe exits winter with gas storage levels above 50% capacity, which is a 10-year high. Consequently, the cost of production for European ammonia remains significantly below offshore tons.
European actors looked to Tampa, where a $475/mt CFR settlement for April was posted on March 29. The firmer sentiment pushed the Northwest Europe price up $10/mt, to $450-$460/mt CFR.
India:
India imported 184,000 mt of ammonia in January, according to Trade Data Monitor, down from 205,000 in January 2023. Saudi Arabia supplied 67,000 mt, followed by 40,000 mt from Oman.
Southeast Asia:
Spot ammonia activity in the region has been subdued, with prices stable and supported by turnarounds at Bontang in Indonesia and Bintulu in Malaysia.
Thailand:
Ammonia imports to Thailand totaled 64,000 mt in January-February, according to Trade Data Monitor, off slightly from the 65,000 mt reported through the first two months of 2023. February imports were 33,000 mt, up from 30,000 mt in February 2023. Malaysia and Australia sent roughly 15,000 mt each during the month.