US Gulf/Tampa:
No news was reported regarding the May Tampa ammonia contract, though some industry contacts speculated that a rollover from April’s $475/mt CFR is likely.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia remained at $625-$645/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and supplier. Truck pricing at East Dubuque, Ill., was pegged at $630-$635/st FOB in late April, while the market FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at the $635/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia terminal prices were unchanged at $605-$645/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Iowa and the high in Missouri.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia pricing continued at $580-$615/st FOB production points in the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Pryor, Okla. The latest truck pricing out of Gulf Coast production points remained in the $525-$550/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Beaumont, Texas.
South Central:
Prompt ammonia slipped to $525-$580/st FOB terminals in the South Central region for truck tons, with the low confirmed out of Gulf Coast production points and the high at Cherokee, Ala. While no offers were reported at El Dorado, Ark., sources said truck pricing FOB Midway, Tenn., slipped to the mid-$500s/st FOB for limited tons.
India:
FACT closed a tender for 8,000 mt of ammonia this week at the low price of $307/mt CFR. Sources largely attributed the price, down from the previous public purchase price of $335/mt CFR, to the shipment’s Iranian origins. The bulk of India’s ammonia imports comes from formula-based contracts. Only the occasional FACT tender or quick purchase from another buyer offers a glimpse into the spot market.
Ammonia imports fell 40% through the first two months of the year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 288,000 mt from 482,000 mt in January-February 2023. Saudi Arabia sent 120,000 mt, Oman added 63,000 mt, and Indonesia shipped 50,000 mt. February imports were pegged at 104,000 mt, down 62% from the 276,000 mt received in February 2023.
Middle East:
Sources estimated the netback to Iran from the FACT/India tender at $245-$247/mt FOB. Given the usual $25-$30/mt difference between the Arab Gulf and Iranian prices, the Arab Gulf equivalent was estimated in the upper-$270s/mt FOB.
Producers have been focused on covering contracts and are not eager to chase potential spot business, sources said. Supplies are reportedly tight for May, and the market will tighten further following an announcement that Ma’aden will take a maintenance turnaround in April and most of May, one trader noted.
Demand for Arab Gulf material West of Suez has become a questionable issue. Shippers are loathe to utilize the Red Sea/Suez Canal route because of terrorist activities against ships. This forces vessels to go around Africa, adding significant time to the shipping period. Deals that involve this longer route appear to be taking longer to settle as parties consider the higher freight rate.
In addition to the threats in the Red Sea, more ship operators are expressing concerns about passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s seizure of the MSC Aries container vessel has left operators nervous, which in turn is raising the insurance costs for shipping out of the Arab Gulf.
Northwest Europe:
Yara suffered an unexpected shutdown in its German operations, sources reported, easing ammonia demand in the area. At the same time, supply from the Arab Gulf has become stressed by vessels taking the longer route around Africa in lieu of the Suez Canal due to ongoing threats in the Red Sea.
With European natural gas now firmly above the $10/MMBtu threshold and reports of several buyers in the market for offshore tons, some upward momentum is expected for Northwest Europe ammonia by some market participants.
Sources said much will depend on the sentiment derived from the upcoming Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic, however, as well as on the evolution of downstream nitrates demand during the new season. For now, the Northwest Europe ammonia price was indicated slightly higher at $460-$470/mt CFR.
China:
First-quarter ammonia imports were 151,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 44% from the 105,000 mt received during the same period of 2023. Indonesia was the main supplier with 88,000 mt, while Malaysia sent 32,000 mt and Saudi Arabia shipped 23,000 mt. March imports were 56,000 mt, up slightly from 50,000 mt in the prior March.
China became a steady exporter of ammonia when prices were up. As prices softened in Southeast Asia, however, Chinese product became too expensive for buyers. This reduced demand was evident in the first-quarter exports. Stepped-up local demand from urea and DAP producers for the domestic market also played a role.
Exports totaled 15,500 mt for the first quarter, an 88% decline from the 126,000 mt shipped through the first three months of 2023. March exports were 1,300 mt, compared to 24,000 mt in March 2023.