US Gulf:
NOLA urea was up from last week, with new barge business reported at $308-$315/st FOB for prompt and full April, $295-$308/st FOB for first-half May, and $288-$295/st FOB for full May. Last week’s range was $300-$311/st FOB for prompt and full April and $287-$290/st FOB for first-half May.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices dropped to $390-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down sharply from last week’s $410-$440/st FOB, with the low confirmed out of spot Ohio River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, and Ottawa, Ill., markets were pegged at $400-$410/st FOB, with pricing at LaSalle, Ill., quoted at the $400/st FOB mark for April-May tons.
In the Great Lakes region, the latest Michigan terminal prices slipped to $438-$450/st FOB for urea, down from last week’s $450-$480/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt slipped to $380-$400/st FOB, down another $20/st from last week, with the high reported in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market was pegged at $380-$395/st FOB during the week, down from a high of $410/st FOB last week.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices continued to fall in the Southern Plains. The latest offers were pegged at $390-$420/st FOB, with the upper end reported at Houston, Texas, and Enid, Okla. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market slipped to a broad $390-$410/st FOB range in late April, down from last week’s $415-$420/st FOB.
South Central:
Urea prices continued to drop in the South Central region, with the latest offers quoted at $370/st FOB Convent, La., $380-$390/st FOB in Kentucky, and $400-$415/st FOB terminals in Arkansas and Tennessee.
Southeast:
Urea pricing in the Southeast slipped to $420-$430/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., Charleston, S.C., and Chesapeake, Va. Rail-DEL offers dropped to a low of $400/st in the region, well below the prior $450/st DEL level.
India:
Expectations remain that a new urea tender will be called in mid- to late-May. The tender call could even be pushed into June, depending on how prices move. The drop in prices from the Arab Gulf, Indonesia, and Egypt have left buyers hoping the trend will continue after Chinese urea finally hits the market.
As prices are softening in the global market, the Indian government is stepping up its campaign for farmers to use India’s domestically produced Nano Urea. The move to this new product from Indian producers will not only reduce the demand for imported urea, sources said, but will also decrease the amount the government must pay in subsidies for those imported tons.
When the next tender is called, sources expect to see a longer shipping period. Recent tenders have allowed 40 days for shipping instead of the traditional 30 days. One trader said the extra time was instituted to allow for Russian material to be included in the tenders. Russian urea destined into India has originated from Baltic ports since the start of the war in Ukraine. Because of the danger of terrorist actions against ships transiting the Suez Canal and Red Sea, these Russian cargoes are forced to transit around Africa.
India imported 672,000 mt of urea in January-February, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 54% decline from the year-ago 1.4 million mt. Oman shipped 206,000 mt, Russia sent 199,000 mt, and the UAE added 107,000 mt. February imports were reported at 271,000 mt, up significantly from 141,000 mt in February 2023.
Prilled urea prices were steady at $245-$260/mt FOB in the Black Sea.
Mediterranean:
Mediterranean granular urea slipped to $315-$330/mt CFR. Imported granular offers in Italy declined to $330/mt CFR, with some small volumes reportedly concluded at or just below this price level. Buyer price ideas have since fallen south of $320/mt CFR, however.
Business concluded in nearby Romania supports the high end of $330/mt CFR, but is considered by some to no longer be repeatable, especially as the country has high stocks.
Egyptian granular indications slipped but no sales were confirmed despite rumors of $290-$295/mt FOB closing, followed by a rebound to $302/mt FOB with MOPCO’s sale of 10,000 mt for May shipment.
Indonesia:
Pupuk Holdings closed a selling auction for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea this week. Sources put the top price at $305-$306/mt FOB for 30,000 mt to be shipped in May, while subsequent talks reportedly nailed down a second 30,000 mt cargo at the same price. The settled price reflected a roughly $50/mt drop from the last recorded deal.
It has been normal practice for Pupuk to secure the sale of an initial lot at a favorable price via auction before opening talks with other potential buyers for additional cargoes. There are rumors that at least two more cargoes of at least 30,000 mt each might be sold as well, sources reported.
Southeast Asia:
Granular urea availability in Southeast Asia appeared to be facing some issues due to a technical problem reported last week at Malaysia’s Sipitang facility, as well as to rumored lower operating rates in Brunei.
However, news of a fresh Indonesian granular export tender, the first since February, emerged late last week and assuaged such concerns. The tender was followed by several back-to-back sales by Pupuk at the same level, shifting the granular market lower in the region.
Prior to the Indonesian tender, the only recent granular price reference was CFR Thai business netting back to around $310/mt FOB, which aligns with this week’s high end. The Southeast Asia granular price was quoted at $305-$310/mt FOB.
Middle East:
Egyptian producer MOPCO reportedly sold 10,000 mt at $302/mt FOB for May shipment, a roughly $20/mt decline from deals closed late last month.
The cargo was said to be for a European buyer. In addition to the European interest, three cargoes of 52,000 mt each were reportedly offered into the Ethiopian tender for May shipment. The trader handling the product did not have the lowest offer in the tender, however. Should the parties fail to reach a deal on pricing, the tons will have to find a new home in a declining market.
With major producers such as Indonesia and Egypt showing dramatic price drops, Arab Gulf producers came under pressure and eventually capitulated, leaving a wide range of prices in the area.
A number of reports indicated granular urea going for $280-$285/mt FOB, and at least one deal reportedly popped prices above the $300/mt FOB mark. Follow-up deals could not maintain that price level, however. The prices from the just-closed Ethiopian tender showed a netback to the Arab Gulf of $285-$290/mt FOB.
The prices under discussion this week left sources discussing a range of $280-$305/mt FOB, though players expected the price to settle below $300/mt FOB by next week. In an unusual move, a deal for 45,000 mt of prilled urea was concluded at $290/mt FOB. Granular is typically sold at a premium to prilled.
The softer market has left producers unwilling to chase after business. One trader described each bid coming lower than the previous one, and no producer wants to lead the way to ever-lower prices, he said.
China:
More changes to the export process in China left the market trying to figure out how many tons might eventually be allowed for export.
New policy guidelines released to urea producers said the CIQ process will now include an examination of the terms and pricing spelled out in export contracts. Previously, the CIQ process focused only on how many tons were available in reserve and how much material would be allowed to be exported. One of the first changes was to remove all clauses requiring prepayment for potential cargoes.
In the past, prepayments were made as a way to lock in tons, one trader noted, making it difficult for traders to abandon the deal if prices softened. Prepayments also ensured the tons would be sent to an export port on time, however, a benefit to traders. Efforts to cancel sales that involved prepayments meant the producer had to invoke force majeure and deal with the multitude of legal actions that such a declaration entails.
The new guidelines will also essentially ban product swaps, making the destination of the exported urea a part of the approval process. The new guidelines state that changes cannot be made to a product’s destination once the process begins. That means swaps of cargoes will not be allowed, said one trader.
Urea sellers will also have to ensure the remaining export paperwork is completed within 30 days of initiating the CIQ inspection. Sources were unclear if this means the product must be loaded and shipped within those 30 days, or just sent to a bonded warehouse for a timely shipment outside the 30 days.
No material was loaded for shipment following last week’s announced changes in the export process, and no movement is expected next week as well. Most of the country will be closed for a Golden Week holiday celebrating the May 1 International Labor Day.
China’s ban on urea exports was evident in the country’s first-quarter export figures. Urea exports totaled just 26,000 mt through the first three months of the year, down from 526,000 mt in January-March 2023. South Korea, reportedly in need of urea for its antipollution devices, topped the buyer list with 13,000 mt. March exports were noted at 14,000 mt, a major drop from the 241,000 mt shipped in March 2023.
Ethiopia:
Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) closed its urea tender on April 25 with eight companies offering material. The tender required offers for three cargoes of 52,000 mt and a 52,444 mt cargo of granular to all ship in May. One additional cargo of 52,000 mt was to be loaded in June.
Offers were accepted on either an FOB or CIF basis. The low price was submitted by Promise International at $316-$317/mt CIF, with an estimated netback to the Arab Gulf at $285-$290/mt FOB. Samsung offered three May cargoes from Egypt at an estimated $308/mt FOB netback.
The buyer will reportedly consult with Ethiopian Shipping Lines to determine on what basis they will accept the offers. The vessels are required to unload their product in Djibouti.
Brazil:
Brazil granular urea prices increased $5/mt at the bottom of the range, to $305-$320/mt CFR from the week-ago $300-$320/mt CFR, while product from sanctioned origins traded at $290/mt CFR. Market players see the market as stabilizing, and limited transactions concluded during the week.
The inland market reflected a $5/mt drop, with few transactions confirmed at $455-$475/mt FOB Rondonópolis. Most buyers remain unwilling to compromise on price, sources said, and limited corn safrinha demand continues in the region. Some sellers have stepped out of the urea market and are not currently offering product.
Argentina:
January-March urea imports in Argentina totaled 202,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, rising from the 29,000 mt received in first-quarter 2023. Nigeria shipped 86,000 mt and Algeria sent 42,000 mt. March imports were 42,000 mt, above the year-ago 16,000 mt, with more than half of the tonnage coming from Turkmenistan.