Central Florida:
Central Florida phosphates prices continued to fall. DAP slipped to $580/st FOB from $600-$630/st FOB, sources said, and MAP softened 8.4%, to $600/st FOB from the prior $655/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings held steady at $650/st FOB, however.
US Gulf:
Phosphate interest shifted from NOLA during the week, sources said, and was focused on upriver barges with limited trades. DAP prices declined to $520-$535/st FOB, falling from $525-$550/st FOB, while MAP barges held their value following last week’s drop to $480-$485/st FOB.
US Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the US Gulf market, leaving DAP and MAP exports flat at $570/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Terminal prices for DAP and MAP were in retreat in the Eastern Cornbelt. The latest DAP offers out of Illinois and Ohio River terminals fell to $640-$675/st FOB, down from last week’s $660-$680/st FOB range, with the low confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati DAP market held at the $665-$675/st FOB level in late April.
MAP was quoted at $680-$700/st FOB in the region, with the low again reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. MAP pricing at Cincinnati slipped to the $680-$690/st FOB range, down from last week’s $690-$695/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing dropped to $650-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $675-$700/st FOB in the region. The St. Louis market was quoted at $655-$660/st FOB for DAP and $675-$685/st FOB for MAP, down from the prior $670-$680/st FOB and $690-$700/st FOB ranges, respectively.
Southern Plains:
DAP and MAP prices were under pressure in the Southern Plains. Catoosa/Inola offers were reported at $670-$700/st FOB for DAP and $685-$725/st FOB for MAP, reflecting a $10-$30/st decline.
South Central:
DAP pricing in the South Central region was quoted at $645-$665/st FOB, down sharply from the prior $680-$710/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high in Arkansas. Kentucky sources reported Ohio River terminal pricing at the $665/st FOB level for prompt tons.
Southeast:
Nutrien’s MAP postings at Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., were unchanged at $650/st FOB in late April. The latest rail-DEL offers in Virginia included $640/st for DAP and $660/st for MAP.
Baltic:
Baltic MAP prices continue to be supported by robust Brazilian MAP values, though sources appear divided as to further price direction and the level of coverage for the upcoming season. For now, MAP prices remained at $515-$525/mt FOB in the Baltic.
Morocco:
With the Moroccan producer resuming sales to Western Europe after several weeks of limited availability, a slight increase at the higher end from European netbacks brought DAP prices up to $510-$600/mt FOB.
Still, with US and Europe largely out the market and lower CFR prices in India, it is expected that Moroccan FOB levels will continue to experience some downward pressure as the second quarter advances and before Brazilian demand kicks off in earnest.
China:
Players have raised concerns that the new restrictions imposed on urea exports may also be applied to phosphate exports. So far, said one trader, there has been no confirmation of such a change, but rumors are circulating.
Despite reports that some DAP was supposedly ready for export, sources have been unable to confirm that any loadings have taken place. The uncertainty of the situation, said one trader, has potential buyers looking to Jordan and Russia for product.
Because no new deals have been reported, the market’s estimated DAP price continues to be based on the latest Indian business. Business from last week showed netbacks at an estimated $528-$530/mt FOB. This week, however, players reported some very quiet talks underway that could potentially drop the price to $500-$510/mt FOB. While no deals were confirmed at those prices, the rumors fit with the Chinese government’s plan to keep prices down.
First-quarter DAP exports illustrated the impact of the government’s export restrictions. China shipped just 142,000 mt in the first quarter, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 78% from the 633,000 mt exported through the first three months of 2023. India led buyers with 44,000 mt, followed by Thailand with 36,000 mt and Japan with 28,000 mt. March exports fell sharply, to 26,000 mt from 263,000 mt in March 2023.
January-March MAP exports totaled 100,000 mt, an 80% decline from the year-ago 534,000 mt. Australia took 56,000 mt, followed by Chile with 12,000 mt. China exported just 356 mt in March – all to India – compared to the 188,000 mt noted one year earlier.
India:
No new deals were reported, leaving the DAP price at $548/mt CFR. Buyers may be holding off from making purchases to see if the lower prices rumored out of China materialize, one trader said. If the rumors become reality, prices could drop to $515-$530/mt CFR into India. For now, however, India continues to actively seek better deals from Jordan and Russia.
January-February DAP imports fell nearly 70% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 266,000 mt from 853,000 mt. Saudi Arabia supplied 151,000 mt, followed by Morocco with 115,000 mt. February imports were pegged at 222,000 mt, down from the 290,000 mt received in February 2023.
Brazil:
MAP imports slipped to $565-$575/mt CFR, off from last week’s $570-$575/mt CFR range. A strong dollar and buyer expectations of declining phosphate prices are keeping the market muted for now. NP 11-44 was reportedly priced in the $470-$475/mt CFR range during the week.
After several weeks of firm prices, MAP softened at Rondonópolis. New business was reported in the $690-$705/mt FOB range, though demand remains limited for the next soybean season.
Argentina:
First-quarter MAP imports to Argentina totaled 62,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 14% from the 54,000 mt received in January-March 2023. Morocco sent 34,000 mt, while China added 24,000 mt. March 2024 imports were reported at 30,000 mt – all from Morocco – against 43,000 mt received in March 2023.