Nutrien Ltd. on July 2 confirmed that it had no impact or production issues at its nitrogen production facility in Trinidad from Hurricane Beryl, which was a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph in the Caribbean late on Tuesday. Yara International ASA also reported no damage or production interruptions at is nitrogen operation in Trinidad.
Heavy rain and high storm surges were predicted for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday, the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and Belize on late Thursday and early Friday, prompting hurricane and tropical storm watches across the Caribbean.
Beryl had weakened slightly from Monday, when it became the Atlantic’s earliest Category 5 storm on record as it made landfall on Carriacou, the second largest of Grenada’s islands. “Beryl is expected to continue to gradually weaken for the next day or two but is still forecast to be at or near a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and near the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night,” the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.
While the humanitarian losses are still being assessed, there are signs Beryl is having an impact on markets. European insurers’ stocks fell as the storm raised worries that an unusually active storm season will drive up claims. Munich Re and Swiss Re, the two biggest reinsurers, continued their slide on July 3 after dropping 3.3% and 4%, respectively, in trading on July 2.
There is a risk that a significantly weaker Beryl will spiral into the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. The storm has a 30-40% chance of reaching the upper Gulf as a tropical storm or weak hurricane, but it probably wouldn’t cause any damage, said Matt Rogers, President of the Commodity Weather Group LLC.
“I think it may stay farther south into Mexico like Alberto and Chris did, particularly if it starts to weaken in coming days as projected, but the odds of an upper Gulf entry have increased,” Rogers said. In the last two weeks, Tropical Storms Alberto and Chris developed off Mexico’s east coast and quickly made landfall without causing extensive damage.
Typically, the first hurricane arrives in the Atlantic by Aug. 11 and the first major storm — Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale — comes by Sept. 1, according to the National Hurricane Center. The other Category 5 system to occur in the Atlantic basin during July was Emily in 2005.
“Unfortunately, Beryl is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005, two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Senior Research Scientist at Colorado State University. It likely points to a hyperactive season, he added.