US Gulf/Tampa:
It’s still early for news on the August Tampa ammonia price, but sources this week speculated that an increase from July’s $415/mt CFR settlement seems likely, citing stronger pricing in some international markets, a good response to recent fall prepay offers in the Midwest, and an uptick in fall pricing this week.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia fall prepay offers were reportedly up some $15/st, to $515-$520/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana. No prompt or prepay ammonia price was reported at Lima, Ohio, during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prepay offers were up $15/st from last week, to $515/st FOB Nebraska terminals, $520/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., and $525/st FOB Iowa terminals.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia 4Q prepay prices in the Southern Plains were up slightly from last week. New offers were quoted at $480-$500/st FOB regional terminals, depending on location, up from initial offers last week at $470/st FOB Enid and Woodward, Okla., $480/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., and $490/st FOB Dodge City, Kan. Prompt tons were pegged at the $435/st level FOB Woodward.
Prompt ammonia pricing out of Gulf Coast terminals in Eastern Texas and Oklahoma continued at $380-$400/st FOB in mid-July.
South Central:
Limited prompt ammonia offers in the South Central region were quoted in the $350-$400/st FOB range at mid-month.
Northwest Europe:
A sale late last week to a German industrial buyer at $510/mt CFR Antwerp brought the Northwest European CFR ammonia market out of a long stint of illiquidity, pushing the range to $470-$510/mt CFR from the previous $460-$470/mt CFR.
Still, several market participants expressed doubts whether this level is repeatable. Natural gas prices in Europe have edged slightly higher, with the Dutch TTF forward month now at $9.45/MMBtu. However, downstream nitrates demand remains seasonally muted, so the fundamentals for further ammonia price increases are not quite there.
Southeast Asia:
TheSoutheast Asia ammonia market was unchanged at $350-$400/mt FOB for now, though producer indications have reportedly slipped below $400/mt FOB. CFR prices in destinations such as South Korea and Japan remain stable, supporting the current FOB range.
India:
India imported 830,000 mt of ammonia in January-May, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 16% decline from the year-ago 983,000 mt. Saudi Arabia led suppliers with 372,000 mt, Oman shipped 198,000 mt, and Indonesia added 111,000 mt. May imports were 225,000 mt, down 7% from 241,000 mt in May 2023.
The influx of Iranian ammonia, in combination with other standard long-term contracts, has virtually killed the spot market, sources said. While the official import numbers do not record any product arriving from Iran, international traders said the Iranian product is sent to a third-party port before being forwarded to India, allowing the ammonia to be recorded as coming from a location other than Iran.
Middle East:
Ammonia prices remained steady in the Middle East, though sources said Ma’aden’s return to normal production could soon lead to softening prices. Excess supply was reported in Southeast Asia, leaving no room for price increases. At the same time, threats to logistics in the Gulf of Aden have prompted many ship owners to avoid sending cargoes west of the Suez Canal.
Indonesia:
January-May ammonia exports stood at 743,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,a roughly 6% increase from the 698,000 mt shipped during the first five months of 2023. South Korea took 221,000 mt, followed by China with 160,000 mt. May exports of 152,000 mt were up by 50% from the 101,000 mt shipped in May 2023.
South Korea:
Trade Data Monitor reported January-June ammonia imports at 598,000 mt, a marginal increase from the 559,000 mt received in first-half 2023. Saudi Arabia topped the supplier list with 286,000 mt, and Indonesia added 243,000 mt.
June imports were 123,000 mt, up 21% from 102,000 mt in June 2023, while second-quarter imports firmed to 324,000 mt from 264,000 mt in April-June 2023.