US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for August was settled at $475/mt CFR, up $60/mt from July’s $415/mt contract. An increase had been expected, fueled by stronger pricing in some international markets, a good response to recent fall prepay offers in the Midwest, and another uptick in fall pricing last week.
The Tampa increase pushed the Caribbean ammonia price to an indicative $435/mt FOB and the NOLA barge market to $432/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia fall prepay offers remained at $515-$520/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, with reports of prompt pricing at the $510/st FOB level on a spot basis.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was unchanged at $515-$525/st FOB for fall prepay offers in the Western Cornbelt.
California:
Ammonia reference prices in California were steady at $680/st DEL for anhydrous and $187-$197/st FOB for aqua ammonia.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia remained at $630/st FOB terminals in the Pacific Northwest in late July, with the aqua ammonia market steady at the $168/st FOB level in the region.
Western Canada:
Ammonia slipped to C$775/mt FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., for September-October offers, with delivered fall prepay remaining at the C$900-$910/mt DEL level in Western Canada.
Northwest Europe:
No new sales have been reported in Northwest Europe since $510/mt CFR Antwerp was achieved for a small lot to a German industrial buyer. The market remains at $470-$510/mt CFR.
Perceived tightness ex-Trinidad and at the US Gulf, as well as limited North African availability, seems to suggest continued price support. However, muted downstream nitrates demand and stable natural gas pricing on the European continent may act as mitigants.
India:
Sources expect FACT to soon call a tender for 8,000-15,000 mt of ammonia, offering a window into India’s spot market. It is unlikely the tender will be helpful in calculating the equivalent price in the Arab Gulf, however, as the most recent tender was sourced from Iran. Sources expect the upcoming tender to also be awarded to an offer of Iranian tons.
China:
China remains an opportunistic ammonia exporter. When the price is high in Southeast Asia and domestic demand is light, China will offer ammonia to regional buyers. So far this year, however, opportunities to sell ammonia have been limited out of China.
China exported 32,000 mt of ammonia in January-June, according to Trade Data Monitor, compared to 135,000 mt during the same period of 2023. Vietnam took 27,000 mt, for 86% of the total exports. June exports were 13,000 mt, up from the 1,500 mt shipped in June 2023. Second-quarter exports were reported at 16,000 mt, almost double the 8,400 mt sent during April-June 2023.
January-June ammonia imports fell 26% year-over-year, to 291,000 mt from 391,000 mt in first-half 2023. June imports of 32,000 mt were down 57% from the 74,000 mt imported in the prior June. Second-quarter imports were pegged at 139,000 mt, down by half from the 285,000 mt received in April-June 2023.