US Gulf:
The NOLA urea barge market edged up to $307-$317/st FOB for prompt and August business during the week, slightly above last week’s $305-$315/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained at $365-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and the high out of inland warehouses. Most Illinois River terminals were quoted firmly at the $370/st FOB level during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing was pegged at $350-$365/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and Port Neal, Iowa.
Northern Plains:
Urea slipped to $355-$365/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., for limited tons, down from the prior $360-$380/st FOB range. Delivered urea was also slightly lower at $395-$435/st in the Northern Plains, depending on location and point of origin, down from $400-$440/st FOB.
Northeast:
Urea remained at $370-$380/st FOB in the Northeast, with the low confirmed at Fairless Hills, Pa.
Eastern Canada:
Urea in Eastern Canada was unchanged at C$592-$700/mt FOB in early August.
India:
India’s urea reserves were reported at 9 million mt going into August. The large stockpile, steady domestic production, and tonnage slated to arrive from the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender could combine to push back the next urea tender, sources speculated. Flooding currently taking place in many areas of the country could delay urea demand as well, some traders noted.
Many traders initially expected a new tender to be called by Aug. 15. Now, some are speculating the call could come later in the month. If India’s recent purchasing pattern holds, National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) will be the next state-owned entity to call a tender.
Pakistan:
Trading Corp. of Pakistan (TCP) closed its 150,000 mt urea tender on July 28. Six companies participated.
Traders were surprised by the lowest two offers of $358.99/mt CFR from West Trade and $369.99/mt CFR from Mercury. The remaining offers, priced in the $380-$395.75/mt CFR range, were more in line with the market’s expectations for the tender.
| Offering Company | Quantity (mt) | $/mt CFR | Source |
| West Trade | 50,000- 150,000 | 358.99 | Oman-China-UAE |
| Mercury | 150,000 | 369.99 | Russia-Middle East-Egypt-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan |
| Aditya Birla Group | 80,000 | 380.00 | Russia |
| Sinepo | 150,000 | 388.80 | Oman-Bahrain-Qatar-Malaysia |
| Torbert | 50,000 | 392.75 | China-Oman-Indonesia |
| Trammo | 45,000 | 395.75 | Open |
TCP issued a counterbid to all the offering companies at the West Trade price of about $359/mt CFR. The companies were expected to reply by Aug. 1.
Some traders commented that little is known about West Trade and its ability to supply even the minimum of its proposed volume at the price offered. Significant volumes of sanctioned material – mostly from Iran – have been reported circulating in the area. While the tender documents excluded sanctioned product, recent shipments of Iranian urea to China have most in the industry expecting those tons to resurface as re-exported material. There have also been regular re-export activities of Iranian urea through select Arab Gulf producer states.
As TCP called its tender in early July, the government was reportedly in the process of approving an additional purchase of 200,000 mt to be made soon after the current tender was settled. TCP’s counterbid to the offering companies could also be seen as an effort to secure more tons than were requested in the tender.
Black Sea:
Black Sea prilled urea prices were steady at $305-$310/mt FOB.
Trade Data Monitor reported January-June urea imports to Turkey at 1.7 million mt, a 16% decline from the year-ago 2.1 million mt. Oman supplied 853,000 mt, followed by Egypt with 577,000 mt.
June imports were 75,000 mt, a significant decline from the 282,000 mt received both in June 2023 and the 316,000 mt monthly average recording in January-May of this year. Second-quarter imports stood at 581,000 mt, down nearly half from the 1.1 million mt imported in April-June 2023.
Mediterranean:
Granular urea offers in France slid to $390/mt CFR amid low buyer interest, pushing the Mediterranean market to $385-$390/mt CFR. No new offers were available in Italy, where Yara Ferrara is running and supplying the domestic market. Similarly, no updated bids or offers were heard in Spain or Romania, with some sources not expecting demand to return in earnest until September.
Indonesia:
Prilled urea continues to be offered at a premium to granular in Indonesia. No new prilled business has taken place since Pupuk sold 5,000 mt at $378/mt FOB last week. The current discussion price for granular has yet to exceed $360/mt FOB, sources said.
Thailand:
First-half urea imports were 1.4 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 15% from the 1.2 million mt received in January-June 2023, with Saudi Arabia sending 370,000 mt. Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the market is not surprising. SABIC has long offered substantially lower prices under its contracts with Thai buyers than what any spot buyer could expect to see.
June imports fell slightly, to 301,000 mt from 307,000 mt in June 2023. Second-quarter imports slipped 17%, to 670,000 mt from the 846,000 mt received one year earlier.
Middle East:
Urea prices remained in the low-$340s/mt FOB in the Middle East. Arab Gulf producers went quiet during the week, spending time covering awards issued in the IPL/India tender and fulfilling long-term contract deals. No one appeared to be out looking for spot sales.
At least 100,000 mt was reportedly sold into China. Deals such as these have previously been intended for re-export rather than distribution in the Chinese market. If the tons go to bonded warehouses in China – as they are expected to do – the product will soon be made available in the open market with its origins obscured after being processed through the Chinese warehouses.
Reports from Egypt indicate that more facilities are coming back online. Abu Qir is now reportedly back in operation and projected to hit 80% of rated production capacity by next week. MOPCO continues to run two of its three facilities, with both said to be operating at 80% capacity.
NCIC reportedly offered 5,000 mt of urea packaged with an equal amount of CAN. Sources reported that offers were received for the CAN, but none for the urea. The producer was reportedly looking for a price in the $370s/mt FOB, a level most buyers are forcefully resisting.
Reports from Europe indicate that buyers are not eager to commit to any new purchases. Current discussions in Europe match with the last Egyptian sale in the mid-$360s/mt FOB, a deal that prompted producers to push for the $370/mt FOB figure.
China:
The domestic price of urea bounced around during the week before settling at a reported RMB2,090-2,100/mt ex-factory. The price would equate to an export price of roughly $315-$320/mt FOB, if any exports were allowed.
Until the government lifts its restrictions on urea exports, using the ex-factory price to calculate the possible export price is only an academic exercise, sources said. The market could just as easily use the Indonesian price or pricing from the Arab Gulf to triangulate a potential China value in the $340s/mt FOB, one trader said. The bottom line, said one source, is there is no international market price for Chinese urea.
The few tons that have been allowed to ship internationally are limited to small lots, usually packed in containers for specialty markets, such as for use in South Korea’s pollution control devices.
Brazil:
Granular urea offers into Brazil softened to $360-$365/mt CFR in a slow market, while rumored transactions in the $340-$350/mt CFR range went unconfirmed. Bidding tracked around the $350/mt CFR mark with buyers expecting further price declines ahead.
Despite expectations of a possible short-term slide in prices, the Rondonópolis market continued at $480-$500/mt FOB during the week. Ongoing negotiations aimed at lowering the CFR price have yet to impact the domestic market. The progression of soybean planting will be a crucial indicator for determining fertilizer demand in the fourth quarter, as delayed sales can lead to stockpiling for the second crop after the soybean season has ended.