US Gulf:
New NOLA urea business was reported at $308-$318/st FOB for September and first-half October during the week, up from last week’s $303-$309/st FOB. The lower numbers reportedly traded early in the week, with the higher levels achieved at midweek in the wake of India’s tender results.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained at $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was unchanged at $360-$365/st FOB in early September. In the Great Lakes region, delivered urea to central Michigan was pegged at the $395/st level.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea was unchanged at $340-$365/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market remained at $345-$355/st FOB in early September.
California:
Granular urea was steady at $490-$500/st FOB Stockton for bulk tons and $560/st FOB for bags, with no current rail-DEL prices reported in California.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market firmed to $415-$430/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed at Riverview, Ore. Delivered tons remained at $420-$445/st in the region, depending on location.
Western Canada:
Urea was quoted at C$620-$625/mt FOB and C$645-$650/mt DEL in Western Canada, up C$5/mt from last report.
India:
The National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) tender closed on Aug. 29 with 23 companies participating. One company was disqualified, reportedly for issues related to paperwork. The remaining companies offered a total of 3.9 million mt.
The lowest offer for East Coast delivery came from Ameropa, with 136,300 mt at $349.88/mt CFR. The lowest West Coast price was from OQ Trading, offering 400,000 mt at $340/mt CFR. In total, sellers offered 1.86 million mt for East Coast delivery and 1.97 million mt for delivery to the West Coast. The $10/mt price gap between the East Coast and West Coast offers fell within the normal range for tenders in India, according to sources.
| NFL Tender Trader Offers | |||||
| Offering Company | Quantity (mt) | West Coast | East Coast | ||
| Total | Quantity (mt) | $/mt CFR | Quantity (mt) | $/mt CFR | Aditya Birla Group | 400,000 | 200,000 | 345.45 | 200,000 | 353.00 |
| AgriCommodities | 197,500 | 47,500 | 345.60 | 150,000 | 363.12 |
| Agrifields | 40,000 | 40,000 | 359.00 | ||
| Alkagesta | 90,000 | 45,000 | 350.00 | 45,000 | 256.00 |
| Ameropa L1 – ECI | 272,600 | 136,300 | 346.48 | 136,300 | 349.88 |
| Fertiglobe | 180,000 | 90,000 | 353.00 | 90,000 | 360.00 |
| Continental | 200,000 | 100,000 | 351.00 | 100,000 | 357.00 |
| Dreymoor | 200,000 | 100,000 | 367.92 | 100,000 | 374.92 |
| FertiStream | 160,000 | 80,000 | 351.00 | 80,000 | 256.00 |
| Hexagon Fertilizers Asia | 100,000 | 50,000 | 355.09 | 50,000 | 357.09 |
| Indagro | 85,000 | 42,500 | 346.00 | 42,500 | 351.00 |
| Keytrade | 100,000 | 50,000 | 355.00 | 50,000 | 359.50 |
| Koch Fertilizer | 190,000 | 95,000 | 356.95 | 95,000 | 361.95 |
| MacroSource | 90,000 | 45,000 | 355.00 | 45,000 | 362.50 |
| Midgulf | 300,000 | 150,000 | 350.15 | 150,000 | 355.15 |
| OQ Trading L1 – WCI | 500,000 | 400,000 | 340.00 | 100,000 | 355.50 |
| RE Energy | 50,000 | 50,000 | 358.50 | ||
| Medallion | 100,000 | 50,000 | 344.50 | 50,000 | 357.50 |
| Sabic AN | 200,000 | 100,000 | 345.50 | 100,000 | 357.50 |
| Samsung | 270,000 | 135,000 | 345.20 | 135,000 | 352.90 |
| Sun International | 100,000 | 100,000 | 352.00 | ||
| Totals (CFR) | 3,825,100 | 1,966,300 | 1,858,800 | ||
| NFL Tender Producer Offers | |||||
| Offering Company | Quantity (mt) | $/mt FOB | |||
| PIC | 45,000 | 362.00 | |||
| Total (FOB) | 45,000 | ||||
| Total Offers | 3,870,100 | ||||
NFL on Sept. 4 issued awards of 1.17 million mt to 11 companies. West Coast deliveries will total 440,000 mt, while East Coast ports will receive 730,800 mt. Under the rules of the tender, NFL was guaranteed the 136,300 mt offered by Ameropa for the East Coast and the 400,000 mt offered by OQ Trading for the West Coast.
| NFL Urea Tender Awards | |||
| Offering Company | Quantity (mt) | ||
| East Coast $349.88/mt CFR | West Coast $340/mt CFR | Total | |
| Aditya Birla Group | 100,000 | 100,000 | |
| AgriCommodities | 49,500 | 49,500 | |
| Agrifields | 40,000 | 40,000 | |
| Ameropa L1 – ECI | 136,300 | 136,300 | |
| Coastal Chemical | 90,000 | 90,000 | |
| FertiStream | 80,000 | 40,000 | 120,000 |
| Midgulf International | 45,000 | 45,000 | |
| OQ Trading L1 – WCI | 400,000 | 400,000 | |
| Sabic | 50,000 | 50,000 | |
| Samsung | 45,000 | 45,000 | |
| Sun International | 95,000 | 95,000 | |
| Total | 730,800 | 440,000 | 1,170,800 |
The preference for East Coast deliveries came not only from NFL desiring the urea to be delivered to ports closer to where the urea is needed, but also because there are greater opportunities for the vessels to return with cargo loaded from India.
The awards are the largest issued so far this year. The total amount of urea purchased under tenders during 2024 will come to 2.6 million mt when the last of the cargoes from the NFL tender arrives, below the 3.9 million mt received under tenders issued through September 2023.
The lower take this year fits both with the India’s general decline in tender-related imports witnessed in recent years, and a stated desire from the Indian government to reduce overall imports. Urea imports totaled 2.3 million mt through the first half of 2024, Trade Data Monitor reported, a roughly 20% decline from the 2.9 million mt received during the same period of 2023.
| Year | Tender Imports (Million mt)* | Total Imports (Million mt)** |
| 2023 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| 2021 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| 2020 | 8.9 | 11.2 |
| 2019 | 5.6 | 11.2 |
*Green Markets tally of tenders
** Trade Data Monitor
The Indian government has been offering incentives to increase domestic urea production. In addition, it has begun promoting a new product, liquid nano urea – also domestically produced –designed to reduce the amount of traditional urea needed without hindering agricultural output.
This latest tender was priced $10-$15/mt below the previous tender. The purchase of slightly more than 1 million mt, along with current urea reserves reported at just under 7 million mt, will ensure that enough product is available for the coming application season, sources said. More tons will still be needed, said traders, but how much more will be determined by the weather. So far, the situation looks as if there will only be a mild increase in demand.
The large take in the tender prompted some knee-jerk reactions in global urea pricing, said one source. Offers into Brazil jumped to $360/mt CFR, the NOLA price moved up to $316/mt, and Egyptian producers were able to command higher prices in sales made directly after the release of the Indian numbers.
Even with India taking 1.17 million mt, however, sources said there remains a surplus of urea in the market, and that no other large buyer is willing to sop up the excess tonnage at higher prices.
Black Sea:
The price range for prilled urea in the Black Sea widened downward this week. Sources now put the price at $295-$305/mt FOB.
January-July urea imports to Turkey totaled 1.9 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 17% decline from the year-ago 2.5 million mt. Oman sent 1 million mt, followed by Egypt with 609,000 mt. July imports were noted at 217,000 mt, down 21% from the 276,000 mt received in July 2023.
The Turkish government reported receiving just 5,000 mt of Iranian urea in January-July, according to Trade Data Monitor. However, Iran reported sending 1.6 million mt to Turkey during the same period. Sources said the discrepancy could stem from Iranian product being sent to a third country ahead of a final shipment to Turkey. As a result, the urea could be reported as coming from a country other than Iran.
Mediterranean:
There has been limited urea activity in the Mediterranean on the CFR side, with French and Italian buyers still firmly out of the market.
Some downward pressure is being felt, however, with one deal suggested at $360/mt CFR and the latest prices ex-Egypt rumored at $340-$347/mt FOB, suggesting lower replacement values. In adjacent Romania, offers as low as $350/mt CFR were reported. As a result, granular urea in the Mediterranean slipped to $360-$375/mt CFR, down from last week’s $370-$375/mt CFR.
Southeast Asia:
Improved availability, including the expectation that Pupuk Indonesia will soon tender for granular urea pending the receipt of export licenses, resulted in indications slipping to $330/mt FOB. Theoretical netbacks from the India tender suggest Southeast Asia values around $320/mt FOB.
With no other spot sales were reported, granular urea in Southeast Asia was quoted at $330-$366/mt FOB, reflecting current indications on the low end and the last-done business by Pupuk on the high end.
Indonesia:
Indonesian urea producers have been quiet. Sources reported no rumors of pending selling tenders during the week.
Reports of sales in the region show prices significantly softer than the $366/mt FOB last achieved in an Indonesian tender. Sources estimated netbacks from the NFL/India tender to Southeast Asian suppliers in the low-$330s/mt FOB. Sources have also been reporting deals around $335/mt FOB from other producers in the area.
January-July urea exports totaled 1 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 54% increase from the year-ago 653,000 mt. Australia took 484,000 mt, followed by the Philippines with 173,000 mt. July exports were 179,000 mt, a sharp increase from the 11,000 mt shipped in July 2023.
Thailand:
January-July urea imports totaled 1.9 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 30% increase from the 1.4 million mt received through the first seven months of 2023, with Saudi Arabia sending 818,000 mt.
July 2024 imports were reported at a near-record 445,000 mt, a sizeable increase on the 193,000 mt received in July 2023. Sources said the large purchases made so far this year – especially in July – have built urea reserves to a high level.
The purchases were justified by earlier weather reports that appeared to warrant the extra tonnage, said one trader. However, hard and steady rains now seem to have delayed the application season. Sources now expect Thailand to step back from the spot market and only accept contracted tons through the rest of the year.
Middle East:
The netback from the Indian tender to sellers in the Arab Gulf was noted at $325-$330/mt FOB, a level many traders were discussing prior to the tender’s closing, and also about $5-$10/mt below where producers argued the price should be. One trader described the direct PIC offer into the Indian tender at $362/mt FOB as well above any level discussed leading into the tender. The offer was also a signal from PIC indicating that producers would not tolerate a dramatic slide in prices, the trader said.
The bulk of the 1.17 million mt awarded by NFL is expected to come from the Middle East. With an Oct. 31 shipping deadline, sources said the existing product in producer warehouses can be loaded for a first wave of deliveries. By the last half of October, production will have replenished many of the tons shipped earlier, allowing for a second wave of shipments.
The sales to India will tighten the Arab Gulf spot market. This could affect both the price and availability of product for the upcoming Ethiopian tender. However, Ethiopia has begun drawing more tons from Egypt and Nigeria in the past couple of years. These shipments have less distance to travel, and producers largely prefer to sell through contracts rather than competitive spot deals such as the Indian tender, with Ethiopia being the exception.
Urea exports from Iran totaled 3.3 million mt in January-July, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 29% increase from the year-ago 2.6 million mt. Turkey purchased 1.6 million mt and Brazil took 625,000 mt, while major urea producer Oman bought 374,000 mt. The material sent to Oman was most likely re-exported, sources said, giving the final buyers some cover against the purchase of Iranian material. July exports were reported at 532,000 mt, up slightly from the 513,000 mt shipped in July 2023.
Egyptian producers MOPCO and NCIC sold cargoes shortly after the close of the Indian tender to begin moving prices up. MOPCO sold 6,000 mt to a European buyer at $347/mt FOB, while NCIC matched that price for 5,000 mt, also bound for Europe. The deals moved up the posted price for Egyptian granular urea by $2/mt.
As the week closed, MOPCO announced additional sales of 5,000 mt and 6,000 mt at $350/mt FOB and $351/mt FOB, respectively. Both deals were for late September loading to buyers in Europe.
Egyptian product is also expected to play a role in the upcoming Ethiopia tender. Egypt’s contributions to Ethiopia’s import tenders have increased steadily in the past five years, according to Trade Data Monitor, rising from 46,000 mt in 2019 to 506,000 mt in 2023. Egypt’s January-August exports to Ethiopia accounted for 310,000 mt out of a total 509,000 mt imported during the period.
Ethiopia:
The Ethiopian Agricultural Bank Corp. called a tender for 250,000 mt of granular urea to close on Sept. 17. The tender calls for five lots of urea to be received from second-half September through mid-November. The tender is expected to tighten the market east of the Suez Canal, sources said.
July-August urea imports totaled 509,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,off 9% from the year-ago 557,000 mt. August is usually a slow month for imports and showed just 6,450 mt received, down from the atypical 159,000 mt reported in August 2023.
China:
Sources continue to believe that urea exports from China will be restricted through the rest of the year. The price at factories has reportedly been softening, with more prilled urea now reported falling closer to the estimated export price of $290/mt FOB than in previous weeks. At the same time, production rates at many plants were said to have stepped higher.
Brazil:
Granular urea prices firmed to $355-$360/mt CFR in Brazil following the release of prices in the India tender, up $15/mt from last week’s $340-$345/mt CFR range. Previous offers in the $340s/mt FOB dried up after most sellers withdrew from the market, while others revised offers to $370/mt CFR.
Although the Indian tender was awarded below initial expectations, buying pressure eased at Brazilian ports this week, pushing inland offers to $480-$490/mt FOB Rondonópolis. Growers remain cautious about new purchases, however, preferring to await more favorable conditions and a clearer outlook in the market.
Argentina:
Sources reported an active Argentina market during the week, with negotiations noted in the $365-$375/mt CFR range.
January-July urea imports totaled 568,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, an85% increase from the year-ago 308,000 mt. Algeria sent 179,000 mt, followed by Nigeria with 141,000 mt. July imports were pegged at 157,000 mt, up 16% from the 135,000 mt received one year earlier.