US Gulf:
NOLA urea trades during the week were reported at $311-$322/st FOB for September, up from last week’s $308-$318/st range, with the low concluded early in the week and the high reported for business on Sept. 12. First-half October business was reported at the $316/st FOB level at midweek.
US Imports:
July urea imports firmed 122.3%, to 147,494 st from the year-ago 66,358 st. Imports from Russia were 119,806 st, followed by 11,026 st from Canada. Trinidad and Tobago shipped 9,917 st.
US Exports:
July urea exports were noted at 142,342 st, a 94.7% increase on the year-ago 73,109 st. Exports to Argentina totaled 42,265 st, followed by 37,580 st to Canada and 35,296 st to Chile.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was unchanged at $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market remained at $360-$365/st FOB in early September.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea firmed to $345-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior $340-$365/st range, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market was pegged at $355-$365/st FOB during the week, up $10/st from last report.
Northern Plains:
Urea firmed to $355-$375/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., up from $350-$360/st FOB in late August, with delivered urea pegged at $385-$420/st in the Northern Plains, depending on location.
Northeast:
Urea prices in the Northeast edged up slightly, to $370-$380/st FOB from the prior $365-$380/st range, with the low reported at Fairless Hills, Pa., and the high at Baltimore, Md.
Eastern Canada:
Urea prices in Eastern Canada slipped to C$592-$645/mt FOB in early September, below the prior C$700/mt high.
India:
National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) has formalized awards totaling 1.17 million mt from its Aug. 29 tender. Almost immediately, award winners began looking for ships to move about 600,000 mt out of the Arab Gulf. Additional tons are expected to come from Malaysia and Brunei.
The Indian government is reportedly watching the weather closely. The current rains appear strong, suggesting robust urea demand from farmers. There are reports that urea reserves, reported at 7 million mt when the tender closed, have since moved closer to 6 million mt, marking a significant drawdown in product.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea softened to $295-$300/mt FOB this week in the Black Sea.
Mediterranean:
Renewed urea activity in France was reported at $370-$375/mt CFR, but prices in the other Mediterranean markets were still circulating at $360/mt CFR, according to traders, and do not yet reflect updated Egyptian levels, which climbed to $360/mt FOB.
Southeast Asia:
There was limited granular urea activity reported in the region as the main exporters assess the feasibility of sending volumes to India. Theoretical netbacks from India were in the $325-$330/mt FOB range.
Small sales in the region at levels above $330/mt FOB were reported, but some producers continue to quote closer to $350/mt FOB, emboldened by rising prilled urea prices, while Pupuk’s most recent tender remained at $366/mt FOB. As a result, granular urea in Southeast Asia was noted at $330-$366/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
Producers are waiting to see if the strengthening trend in urea prices holds before calling a selling tender, sources said. If Pupuk calls the tender too soon, said one trader, the injection of a large quantity of urea into the market could tank prices. If Pupuk waits too long, however, selling opportunities might disappear.
Egypt:
The week showed steadily strengthening urea prices out of Egypt. The week opened with MOPCO and NCIC each selling 10,000 mt at $355/mt FOB. Abu Qir quickly added another 10,000 mt at the same price. Toward the end of the week an unnamed producer sold a cargo for $357/mt FOB, and NCIC sold 6,000 mt at $360/mt FOB.
All the purchases were made for European deliveries in September, sources said. The price is expected to remain firm, as the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) will be closing its 250,000 mt tender on Sept. 17. Egyptian urea has played a growing role in the Ethiopian market.
Middle East:
It appears that at least 600,000 mt has been booked out of the Arab Gulf to cover awards from the NFL/India tender. The onrush of traders talking with producers and vessel operators to secure loading times was the area’s main activity this week. No new spot inquiries or offers were reported, leaving the price in the upper-$320s/mt FOB.
Sources reported inquiries from traders looking for backing in the EABC/Ethiopia tender that will close on Sept. 17. In general, producers have been able to secure a premium on pricing into the Ethiopian tenders. In recent years, however, Egyptian producers have increased their presence in these tenders, replacing product from the Arab Gulf.
South Korea has been stepping up inquiries to Arab Gulf producers to replace tons that would previously have been supplied by China. The export restrictions imposed by the Chinese government have left South Korea desperate to find urea, mostly for its pollution-control programs.
Qatar has replaced China as South Korea’s single largest urea supplier. According to Trade Data Monitor, Qatar accounted for 23% of urea imports to South Korea in January-July – up 3% from the same period in 2023 – compared to 17% from China. The export restrictions imposed by Beijing have forced South Korea to look farther afield. Buying urea from the Arab Gulf is more expensive for the South Koreans, but a new government budget addendum is expected to help ease the pain of those higher costs.
MIS in Iran reportedly held a tender this week for three lots of 30,000 mt each. There were no details available as Green Markets went to press.
While the government and producers publicly set their lowest acceptable price at $295/mt FOB, most bids in private talks fell closer to $290/mt FOB, sources reported. The new official price reflects a drop of $2/mt from the old official price of $297/mt FOB. In addition to the tons from MIS, at least two other cargoes are reportedly available from Iran.
China:
Softer factory prices continue to circulate, with the latest price showing a $270-$275/mt FOB equivalent for prilled urea.
Sources said the estimated export price under discussion is just talk. Because the Chinese government is not allowing any urea to be exported in quantity, the export price is simply a mathematical exercise that is unlikely to reflect what the real price would be if exports were allowed.
One trader noted that these mathematical exercises will continue until Beijing eases its limits on urea exports. So far, it continues to appear as if the restrictions will stay in place through December.
South Korea:
When China first imposed restrictions on urea exports in 2021, South Korea was hit immediately, as the country depended on Chinese urea for its pollution-control devices. Without urea, diesel cars and trucks in the country would have to stop operating.
At the time, buyers for South Korea worked every contact available to secure the needed tons. Seoul also contacted Beijing to see if a government-to-government deal could be worked out that would not run afoul of the reasons China first imposed its export restrictions.
China’s up-and-down export policies prompted the South Korean government to begin easing its reliance on Chinese urea. Chinese urea accounted for 46-75% of South Korea’s total urea imports in 2020-2023. Unfortunately for buyers, urea from other sources was more expensive.
Qatar has replaced China as the single largest supplier to South Korea in the year-to-date. According to Trade Data Monitor, roughly 115,000 mt – or 23% of South Korea’s imports – have come from Qatar. Vietnam supplied another 22.5% of the imports, compared to China’s 17% share of the import market.
This year the South Korea government created a special committee to secure vital supplies for the country. In addition to urea, the committee looked at other chemicals and petroleum products. The government accepted a plan to help importers purchase urea from non-China sources, creating a $2.2 million fund to support urea importers.
According to a government release, the funds will be used to cover 50% of the difference between the Chinese price and the higher price from other sources, mitigating but not erasing the higher prices.
Brazil:
Brazil granular urea prices remained at $355-$360/mt CFR, unchanged from the prior week. Players reported limited liquidity, with buyers showing minimal interest north of $350/mt CFR while most sellers held offers at $360/mt CFR and above.
In the domestic market, urea prices rose to $480-$500/mt FOB Rondonópolis. With no significant movement observed in the international market and much of the global supply directed to India, Brazilian suppliers took the opportunity to increase inland prices.
August urea imports totaled 775,000 mt, a 60% increase from August 2023. Oman accounted for more than 200,000 mt in August, surpassing combined historical volumes from Oman and Iran, while Russia nearly doubled its year-ago totals to about 180,000 mt. Other origins such as Qatar and Nigeria also showed significantly higher volumes.
January-August totals were up 12% year-over-year, to 4.4 million mt, with Nigeria leading Oman as the largest supplier.
Argentina:
Urea prices in Argentina firmed to $370-$375/mt CFR despite a general pause in the market, rising from last week’s $365-$375/mt CFR range, with low-side offers reportedly no longer available as the market prepares for wheat planting. Domestic prices, reportedly holding below replacement levels, continue to stifle importer demand.