U.S. Gulf/Tampa: With Tampa concluded at $472/mt DEL for February, some were looking to NOLA for movement. While there has been speculation in recent weeks that the long-stagnant NOLA market would finally move, finding bona fide spot barge business remains a problem. Again, Green Markets is revisiting putting a Not Available for the NOLA price, or eliminating the category altogether. If no business is forthcoming soon, expect an NA to this very thinly traded market.
Natural gas prices have been bouncing around during the past month, though remaining well below the $3.00/mmBtu mark. Just a few weeks ago prices dropped to historic lows into the $2.30s/mmBtu, to close up for February at $2.678/mmBtu on Jan. 27. Sources attributed that bump to an announcement by major independent gas producers that they would cut production.
Prices again began falling, with sources citing the abnormally warm winter in many major gas-using parts of the country, as well as a huge overhang in storage. However, on Feb. 2, March prices closed up about 17 cents from Feb. 1 to $2.554/mmBtu, with sources saying more gas was taken out of storage than was expected.
Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $650-$670/st FOB Eastern Cornbelt terminals. Much of the region saw another week of unseasonably mild weather as January gave way to February. For many areas, field conditions were still too soft to support spreaders, but dealers were optimistic that the application pace will pick up soon.
Western Cornbelt: Sources continued to quote the prompt ammonia market in the $600-$645/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the upper end in Missouri and the low reported out of terminals in both Nebraska and Iowa on a spot basis.
Dealers continued to report steady movement of ammonia and dries to the field in parts of the region. “By the time spring planting comes around, if these guys don’t have all their fertilizer done it’s not because they didn’t have the weather for it,” said one Nebraska contact.
Not all areas were rolling last week, however. Field conditions remained wet in parts of southern Missouri, where one contact said aerial topdress applications were taking place on winter wheat in early February. “If it was dry, we’d be moving a lot of ground rigs,” said one source.
Southern Plains: Sources pegged the anhydrous ammonia market at $580-$585/st FOB Southern Plains production points on the low end, with dealer pricing out of Kansas pipeline terminals quoted in the $610-$620/st FOB range for prompt tons.
Mild January weather fostered steady fieldwork and brisk ammonia movement on corn ground in parts of the region. Several Kansas sources reported heavy movement in their trade areas again last week, capping what one source said was a January unlike any he had ever experienced in his trade area.
“We’re doing what we should be doing in March,” reported another Kansas contact, who said ammonia, phosphates, and potash were moving heavily on corn ground.
South Central: The prepay ammonia market remained at the $655/st level FOB Memphis, Tenn.
Middle East: Some spot business was finally secured from the area, and the prices are not to the liking of the producers. Sources report an Indian purchase of 15,000 mt from Sabic at $377.50/mt CFR. Industry watchers estimate the netback at $310/mt FOB.
The recent business confirms a slide in prices that began in early January, when Sabic reportedly settled a deal with a U.S. buyer for an estimated netback of $395/mt FOB. At the time, sources in Asia were reluctant to believe the dramatic drop of almost $100/mt. Now, however, with the global ammonia market softening, a drop into the low $300s/mt FOB is immediately accept