Central Florida: Farmers in Florida should begin planting their spring crops very soon, but that won’t be enough to get the phosphate market rocking and rolling – although it will help. Dealers in Florida don’t store large quantities because the supply is so close it is easier and cheaper to send a truck to pick up a load on an as-needed basis.
The next to start up should be Georgia and Alabama, where they have already put down lime in preparation for phosphate and other fertilizers. Still, product does get stored there in larger quantities than in Florida, so it will be awhile longer.
For most of the rest of the South and East served by Florida, the weather and the ground have been too wet to get started, and they will have to wait until conditions are more favorable and dealers’s warehouses begin to empty before ordering begins.
In terms of prices, not much has changed during the past week. The Central Florida DAP price range continued last week at a flat $480/st FOB. Both Mosaic and CF were posted at the $480/st FOB mark. MAP was at a premium of $20/st FOB in comparison to DAP by Mosaic in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. MAP was in short supply. PCS Sales was selling at prices comparable to the market.
U.S. Gulf: At the beginning of the reporting period a week ago Friday, traders began buying NOLA DAP barges to use for the export market, and the sagging market picked up somewhat. Around the same time, Mosaic was out buying NOLA DAP barges and was paying around $440/st FOB, which was around the top of the previous week’s range. The barges Mosaic bought will be used to make up the shortfall it will have from curtailing production at Donaldsonville. Sources said traders paid between $438-$440/st FOB for an estimated 13 barges for export. The price of the export sales, to Mexico and to either Uruguay or Ecuador, came in between $510/mt FOB and $515/mt FOB. Although that was below the previous week’s range for export DAP, they were still profitable arrangements. Similar export deals appear likely until the NOLA DAP barge market picks up steam.
Almost all of that buying took place before the beginning of the week on Monday, and the number of NOLA DAP barges still available was greatly diminished.
The Fertilizer Institute’s conference at San Diego did not result in any large transactions – and perhaps not even any small ones. The mood was said to be either neutral, pessimistic, or optimistic, depending on the source. Most believe spring will be very good, if it starts relatively early – or at least not too late. That was because not a lot of product went on the ground in the fall, and considering the amount of corn acres to be planted and the price, farmers will want to maximize yields as much as possible.
However, if the crop does not get into the ground until May or later, the amount of phosphate sold, as well as other fertilizers, will be down, because there will be no way to get it to where it will be needed in time. A logistical nightmare. Most agree that dealers will not begin reordering until they know their bins will be running out.
Prices for corn futures moved down last week compared to the previous week, falling from $5.7675/bushel to $5.69/bushel for December 2012. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.5425/bushel, down from $5.625/bushel the previous reporting period. Soybeans for November 2012 improved at $12.4375/bushel from $12.225/bushel the previous week, and beans for November 2013 were up a little at $12.0875/bushel from $12.0325/bushel the previous week. Wheat for July 2012 retreated to $6.6875 from $6.975/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2013 was listed at $7.305/bushel last week, down from $7.53/bushel a week earlier.
Warehouse prices were down a little, but still profitable considering NOLA phosphate barge pric