In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on May 10, USDA said corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion from 2011/12. USDA attributed the boost in production prospects to a projected 5.1 million acre increase in harvested area, an early start to planting and emergence, and higher expected yields, which are projected at a record 166 bushels/acre, two bushels above the 1990-2010 trend.
The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.20-$5.00 per bushel, down sharply from the 2011/12 record projected at $5.95- $6.25 per bushel. Citing abundant domestic supplies, lower prices, and higher expected China demand, USDA said corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 200 million bushels higher than in 2011/12. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion bushels from the current year projection.
USDA’s outlook for the 2012/13 U.S. wheat crop is also for larger supplies and use, but lower prices. All wheat production is projected at 2,245 million bushels, up 12 percent from last year’s weather-impacted crop and the highest since 2008/09. The all wheat yield, projected at 45.7 bushels per acre, is up 2.0 bushels from last year, but 0.6 bushels below the 2010/11 level. U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 3,133 million bushels, up 5 percent from 2011/12.
The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $5.50-$6.70 per bushel, down sharply from the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.
The forecast for 2012/13 winter wheat production is up 13 percent with a record yield of 47.6 bushels/acre projected , which USDA attributed to a recovery in the hard red winter wheat crop in the Central and Southern Plains after last year’s drought.
U.S. all wheat exports for 2012/13 are projected at 1,150 million bushels, with larger supplies, more competitive prices, and an early expected start to this year’s harvest opening the door to higher demand for U.S. wheat during the coming months. U.S. ending wheat stocks are projected at 735 million bushels for 2012/13, down 33 million from 2011/12 and 241 million below 2009/10.
The WASDE report projects soybean production at 3.205 billion bushels, up from the 2011 crop as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested soybean area is projected at 73 million acres, and soybean yields are projected at 43.9 bushels/acre, up 2.4 bushels from 2011. U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are projected at 1.505 billion bushels, up 190 million from 2011/12. Ending soybean stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million from 2011/12, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at a historically low 4.4 percent.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012/13 is projected at $12-$14 per bushel, compared with $12.35 per bushel in 2011/12.