U.S. Gulf/Tampa: While nothing new was reported in the Tampa and NOLA markets last week, sources did note concerns in Trinidad. Sources said methanol and nitrogen producers are seeing less gas than expected in the third quarter. Cutbacks were expected in the first half, but the industries were expecting a reprieve in the second half.
Major producers contacted by Green Markets last week all confirmed this assessment, with one saying it was due to the tie-ins of new gas platforms. One predicted that September might be off as much as 30 percent, but there was hope that once work was completed, production would ramp back up in the fourth quarter.
In other news, OCI Partners on Aug. 29 reported that its Beaumont ammonia plant was offline for 2 days, with methanol down 9 days. OCI expects to shut down the ammonia and methanol production lines for 28 days and 48 days, respectively, on Oct. 1 in order to complete its current upgrade project.
October NYMEX natural gas settled Sept. 4 at $3.819/mmBtu, down from the Aug. 28 close of $4.044/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources pegged the anhydrous ammonia market at $645-$650/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low in Illinois and the upper end in Indiana for fall prepay. “Summer fill is over,” said one regional contact. “We don’t expect to see any significant movement now until the second half of October.”
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia remained in tight supply in the Western Cornbelt. The market was quoted at $630-$655/st FOB, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa and Missouri.
Effective Sept. 28, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings firmed to $630/st FOB Homestead, Neb., $635/st FOB Greenwood, Neb., $640/st FOB Whiting, Iowa, $645/st FOB Early, Iowa, and $655/st FOB Garner, Iowa, and Mankato, Minn.
Sources described fertilizer activity as slow in the region. “Growers are focused on harvest, with very little interest in fall fertilizer, especially with the price of corn today,” said one contact. “It’s difficult for me to say prices are rising, but they are firm and inching up ever so slowly.”
Southern Plains: Sources continued to report tight ammonia supplies in the Southern Plains, although movement was described as light. “Supply has loosened up, but overall I think it is very thin if we have heavy movement,” said one contact.
The ammonia market in the Southern Plains continued to be quoted at $600-$620/st FOB regional production points, with the pipeline terminal market pegged at $630-$635/st FOB in Kansas. Effective Sept. 28, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings firmed to $620/st FOB Borger, Texas, $625/st FOB Mocane, Okla., $630/st FOB Conway, Kan., and $635/st FOB Clay Center, Kan.
South Central: Anhydrous ammonia pricing had reportedly firmed to $600-$620/st FOB in the South Central region, up some $20/st from last report, with the low FOB Memphis, Tenn. Sources reported no new ammonia sales out of the Henderson, Ky., market, noting that this location is “predominantly a spring terminal.”
Middle East: Industry sources are now saying that rumors of a Koch-Fertil deal at $550/mt FOB are an exaggeration. Even with that denial – from buyer and seller – sources still say $550/mt FOB is not out of reach for October business.
Efforts to duplicate a previous sale from PIC at $525/mt FOB are now seen as no longer viable. Sources say the price has moved into the $530s/mt FOB, with regular talk of pushing for that $550/mt FOB level.
The limited amount of natural gas being sent to Egyptian plants has pretty much eliminated Egypt from the international market. The government shif