U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Major players concluded December business at $625/mt CFR, down $30/mt from November’s $655/mt CFR. The previous week, sources had been predicting a $20-$30/mt drop, though some large buyers were hoping for much more.
While Ukraine continues as a problem spot for exports, both Algeria and Libya plants have returned to production. Trinidad is expected to continue with partial gas curtailments going forward. In the meantime, most called the U.S. fall season “weak” with respect to ammonia. In addition, Mosaic has cut DAP production to 70-80 percent.
December NYMEX natural gas rolled off the board Nov. 25 at $4.282/mmBtu, compared to the Nov. 20 close of $4.489/mmBtu. January gas closed Nov. 25 at $4.403/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: Eastern Cornbelt sources continued to report minimal fall ammonia work in the region, with weather and soil conditions limiting activity in many areas. One terminal source reported only 2-5 trucks moving per day from that location last week.
The ammonia market remained at $650-$660/st FOB regional terminals for spot tons, with the low end reported in Illinois.
Western Cornbelt: Sources reported spotty fall ammonia movement in the Western Cornbelt, but the pace was not heavy. The regional ammonia market was pegged at $615-$660/st FOB for prompt pull, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end FOB Palmyra, Mo.
Missouri sources quoted delivered ammonia at $640-$650/st from southern production points.
Dakota Gasification confirmed that it had an unplanned outage at its Beulah, N.D., ammonia plant that will keep the facility down until mid-December. The company also said it plans to announce a winter fill and spring prepay program within a few weeks.
Southern Plains: Southern Plains sources reported only spotty fertilizer movement in the region last week, with activity limited to a few spot loads on wheat and pasture ground, and also on next year’s rowcrop acres.
Ammonia pricing out of most regional production points was reported in the $560-$580/st FOB range last week, with the upper end of the market tagged at the $615/st FOB level out of Kansas pipeline terminals.
South Central: Anhydrous ammonia remained at $600-$620/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low FOB Memphis, Tenn. “The lack of ammonia applications this fall may put pressure on spring UAN and urea,” said one source.
Black Sea: The last bit of business from the area was in mid-November. Sources say 5,000 mt was sold to a Turkish buyer with a netback to Yuzhnyy of just under $600/mt FOB.
The Turkey deal flies in the face of other claims of prices just above $600/mt FOB.
The industry was waiting for the conclusion of December Tampa business, not so much as a means to calculate a new Yuzhnyy price, but rather as an indicator of where the general market is heading.