U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Nothing new was reported for Tampa or NOLA last week.
April NYMEX natural gas closed March 5 at $2.841/mmBtu, compared with Feb. 26’s $2.697/mmBtu. March rolled off the board Feb. 25 at $2.894/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia remained at $610-$625/st FOB Illinois terminals, depending on location and shipping date, with pricing out of Indiana terminals approximately $10/st higher.
Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market continued to be quoted in the $575-$610/st FOB range out of regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and western Iowa, and the upper end in eastern Iowa and Missouri.
Delivered ammonia from southern production points was steady at $580-$615/st in the region, depending on destination.
California: Effective March 1, Calamco’s ammonia postings in the California market fell to $680/st DEL for anhydrous and $185/st FOB for aqua. Those levels reflect a $30/st drop for anhydrous and an $8/st drop for aqua from the company’s Feb. 1 list prices.
Pacific Northwest: The anhydrous ammonia market was steady at $650-$675/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location, but sources reported little new activity to test the market. Aqua ammonia was quoted at $164-$172/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $981-$1,026/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on location, with the lower numbers in Manitoba and the higher numbers farther west.
Black Sea: Sources say the market may have over-corrected, and is now slowly making its way back to a more balanced price.
Buyers out of Yuzhnyy are still asking for sub-$400/mt FOB prices, but are facing serious push back. Traders say a more realistic level is closer to $410/mt FOB. Late April orders may even be closer to $420/mt FOB.
One industry watcher noted that the $390-$400/mt FOB material from February is pretty much all gone. He added that this tonnage represented the over-correction of the market.
Middle East: Arab Gulf producers are claiming the price should be $470-$480/mt FOB at the same time they are being bid at $400/mt FOB from Asian buyers. Sources say the price in the region should be closer to $440-$450/mt FOB based on the traditional price difference between Yuzhnyy and the Arab Gulf.
The problem sources have in nailing down prices in the region is the lack of transparency. Almost all of the tonnage from the region moves out under contracts with formula-based prices. The best anyone can do in the area is watch for the occasional tender for what the producers consider the going price.
Sources report that some tightness continues in the region. Qafco is taking longer than expected to come back online after a routine maintenance shutdown. The restart of the ammonia line at Ma’aden has not yet reached its full potential, say sources. Even once the Ma’aden line is fully operational, sources say most of the tonnage will go to DAP production and will therefore have little impact on availability in the region.
The only upside to availability are reports that PIC has a small cargo available, and that the SAFCO V plant is on track to begin operations in the next month or two.
India: Some of the major buying activity in the region is reportedly waiting for the conclusion of the phos acid talks. Regular contract sales are coming into India, but spot purchases seem to be on hold until the acid talks are completed.
The current price into India is based on estimates of the current Arab Gulf price. Sources say that price comes to the low $500s/mt CFR. If the