U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Tampa business for May had not yet been concluded at press time, although sources were betting it would be lower than April’s $485/mt CFR, based on weaker global prices.
February saw a rush of imports, up 43 percent to 462,500 st from the year-ago 323,747, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. July-February was up only 3 percent, however, to 3.79 million st from the year-ago 3.67 million st.
The May NYMEX natural gas price closed at $2.684/mmBtu on April 16, up from April 9’s $2.528/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: The ammonia market remained at $625-$640/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower numbers reported in Illinois and the higher end of the range in Indiana. Ammonia pricing out of Henderson, Ky., was also pegged at the $625/st FOB mark last week.
Western Cornbelt: Some sources speculated that Iowa’s preplant ammonia run was roughly 80 percent complete after another week of heavy activity. The dealer market remained at $610-$620/st FOB most terminals in Iowa and Missouri, depending on location, with the low end of the regional range reported at $590-$600/st FOB in Nebraska.
California: Calamco announced lower ammonia postings in California on April 1, with anhydrous ammonia dropping $15/st on that date, to $665/st DEL in California. Aqua ammonia postings fell to $181/st FOB from the previous $185/st FOB list price.
Agrium also announced new ammonia postings in the California market, with anhydrous prices dropping on April 7 to $665/st truck-DEL in Central California, and aqua moving $181/st FOB Yuba City.
Pacific Northwest: The anhydrous ammonia market was tagged at $650-$660/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest for actual sales, well below recent dealer postings in the $750-$770/st DEL range.
Aqua ammonia remained at $164-$169/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market was steady at $981-$1,026/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on location.
Middle East: Reports peg the market just under $390/mt FOB. Sources said pressure from a lack of demand in Asia and continued production in the Arab Gulf spell ever lower prices.
Occasional spot deals were reported at just above $380/mt FOB. In addition to the gloomy prices for the few spot deals that do show up, sources said Asian buyers are taking the minimum their contracts require.
Producers are said to be willing to settle for a $450/mt CFR deal to Asia, but at present no one in Asia is willing to commit at that level. A deal earlier this month at that level is now considered too high for any potential buyer.
In the region, the Arab producers face the additional pressure of the lifting of sanctions against Iran. If the restrictions on banking and insurance transactions are lifted, sources report that more – and cheaper – Iranian ammonia will be available to the general market, instead of in just a few countries that have been working around the current sanctions.
Black Sea: Reports from North Africa say the price has dropped to $380/mt FOB based on the netback estimates on delivered product. Industry sources, however, are not so sure the math was done right.
Buyers are always playing up lower prices, said one source. While everyone agrees the market price is on a downward trajectory, some are not so sure it has dropped to the $380/mt FOB level just yet.
Sources say the operative word is “yet.” While demand is strong enough to prevent a free fall in prices, it is not enough to stop a gentle slide.
The lower gas price from Russia to Ukraine is not helping the situation, say sources. With lower input pric