U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The Tampa market firmed up $10/mt, moving to $460/mt CFR for July business from June’s $450/mt CFR. Sources said Black Sea price ideas had moved up in the past few weeks, giving Tampa some strength.
July NYMEX natural gas closed June 25 at $2.850/mmBtu, up from June 18’s close of $2.777/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonia pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt was transitioning from prompt sales to summer fill levels. Sources quoted fill pricing at $540-$550/st FOB in the region for tons shipped in July and August, with the lower end of the range in Illinois and the upper end in the Indiana market. Fall prepay was reportedly being offered at a $10/st premium to those levels.
The only location with a few lingering prompt ammonia sales was Henderson, Ky., where sources quoted the cash market last week at $590/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market in the Western Cornbelt was in the process of resetting from prompt to summer fill and fall prepay pricing.
Fill tons offered for shipments starting in July were quoted at $505/st FOB in Nebraska, $515-$525/st FOB out of Iowa terminals, and $530/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., with fall prepay quotes tracking roughly $10/st higher at most locations.
Although the last bit of prompt ammonia business was quoted in the $550-$590/st FOB range out of regional terminals, sources said there were no new prompt sales taking place in the Western Cornbelt last week.
In the Southern Plains market, sources quoted fill ammonia offers at the $465/st level FOB Oklahoma production points for July pull, with fourth-quarter prepay tons priced $10/st higher.
Northern Plains: Sources reported some summer fill prices out for anhydrous ammonia in the Northern Plains. Dakota Gasification was offering ammonia fill at $550/st DEL for orders placed by July 10 and pulled from July 1 through Aug. 21. Until the fill shipping period begins, however, the company’s prompt ammonia price remained at $600/st DEL in the region.
Other regional suppliers were also reportedly offering fill ammonia tons at the $550/st level in the Dakotas for tons pulled after July 1. Ammonia prices FOB Velva and Grand Forks, N.D., were quoted at $580/st for fill, with fall prepay being offered at $585-$590/st FOB for September through December.
Eastern Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market FOB Courtright, Ont., had reportedly slipped to $820-$825/mt for prompt pull, down $25-$30/mt from last report.
Black Sea: Sources in the area are viewing the recent uptick in the Tampa price as a stabilizing move rather than as any indication of an upward trend. As evidence, one trader points to the steady price in Yuzhnyy.
As more details of contracted and spot tons become known, sources say there are three distinct netbacks. One is based on deals settled by Koch showing netbacks at just under $400/mt FOB. A second touchstone is spot business – mostly to Turkey – that shows a netback centering on $380/mt FOB. And the final range is $360-$370/mt FOB, a level that OCP/Morocco claims, but producers deny. Sources add that the lowest price range also includes Russian material that is discounted because of the U.S./EU sanctions against Russia.
Once the contracted tons are accounted for, say sources, only about 30,000-40,000 mt remain available each month for spot business. That number is expected to drop slightly as more shutdowns are expected in the area.
Prices could go higher, said one observer, if Tunisia ever gets its phosphate operations back online. Sources report that the Tunisian phosphate producers have not taken any ammonia so far this year. With no plants running, there is no need for imported ammonia from Yuzhnyy.