U.S. Gulf/Tampa: While nothing new was reported in the Tampa market since it moved up $25/mt just before Christmas to $250/mt, a NOLA barge trade was reported to have occurred in the meantime at $257/st FOB, up from the previous $245/st FOB.
January NYMEX natural gas price rolled off the board at a high of $3.930/mmBtu. By Jan. 5, however, February was not following that trend, and was back down at $3.273/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: The big news on the fertilizer pricing front in the Eastern Cornbelt was the release of updated spring prepay prices for ammonia and UAN, which reportedly prompted a lot of phone calls as the week progressed.
Early in the week, several sources reported limited offers for ammonia prepay at the $390-$410/st FOB level in the region, depending on location, with the lower numbers reported out of Lima, Ohio. Ammonia prepay prices ratcheted up from there, however.
By Jan. 5, the bulk of spring prepay programs for ammonia were reported in the $415-$425/st FOB range in the Illinois market, although sources were quick to note that no sales had been concluded at those new levels. Sources were in agreement, however, that the aggressive fill tons offered by some suppliers in December in the low- to mid-$300/st FOB were now completely sold out and no longer available.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted spring prepay ammonia at $360/st FOB in western Iowa, $385/st FOB Fort Dodge, Iowa, and up to $400/st FOB Washington, Iowa, but, as one source put it, “people are not buying at that value.” Fill tons offers at much lower levels had reportedly been cleaned up by the first of the year, but prepay ammonia in the Nebraska market continued to be pegged at the $350/st FOB level, give or take.
“There are lots of unknowns at this time with Wever and Port Neal starting up,” said one regional contact. “Will they build enough inventory by spring to impact the supply/demand equation?” Sources noted that a few spring prepay tons have been offered out of Wever, but at similar or slightly lower levels to other suppliers in the Eastern Iowa market.
Northern Plains: Sources reported “limited” spring prepay offers for ammonia available at $390-$395/st DEL in North Dakota and at the $365/st FOB level out of Minnesota terminals, although several regional suppliers had withdrawn their spring pricing offers for the moment.
There were reports as well of prompt fill tons still being offered for as low as $325/st DEL in North Dakota and $300/st FOB in Minnesota.
Great Lakes: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $390-$410/st FOB in the Great Lakes region for take or prepay, with the low quoted by Wisconsin sources from only “one supplier” as others remained out of the market following some brisk December fill business. The upper end of the regional market was reported by Michigan sources for new sales FOB Huntington, Ind. Sources said no quotes were being offered for new ammonia sales FOB Courtright, Ont.
Black Sea: Sources said there is no sign of a prompt restart of OPZ, which went down in late December. This shutdown has tightened the market, moving up prices. Sources now peg the market at $250-$260/mt FOB, with the emphasis on the higher end of the range. A deal for 6,000 mt to Turkey at $280-$290/mt CFR confirms those levels for a netback in Yuzhnyy.
Ukraine’s government continues to look for ways to get some money back from OPZ after two attempts to sell the facility. Now, sources are reporting the government is looking for someone to lease the production operations rather than buy them. So far, there are still no takers.
Middle East: Arab producers continue to claim the price is $240-$250/mt FOB. A sale from Saudi Arabia to OCP appears to have a netback that justifies this price. The tightness in the market is expected to keep moving up the price, however.
India: Buyers are facing a tighter market. One trader noted that the current Arab Gulf price range of $240-$250/mt CFR is expected to hit Indians with a price closer to $290/mt CFR. While some cargo is being purchased about $10/mt lower right now, sources said that lower-priced product will soon disappear in favor of the higher rates.