U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Tampa business for March was concluded late in the week at $330/mt CFR, up $10/mt from February’s $320/mt. Sources had been predicting either a rollover or an increase of up to $10/mt. While sources pointed to no huge international upticks last week in the Black Sea and Mideast, prices did move up at other locations. In addition, sources reported good early spring demand for ammonia in the U.S. heartland.
Nothing new was reported in the NOLA barge market, which was most recently traded at $310/st FOB.
March NYMEX natural gas closed Feb. 23 at $2.617/mmBtu, down from Feb. 16’s $2.854/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to describe a “crazy week” in parts of Indiana and Illinois as preplant demand for ammonia continued to diminish inventories at some terminals. “We’re running every day,” said one contact, who noted that this pace was likely to end with the weekend weather system.
Sources quoted the Illinois ammonia market at $435-$450/st FOB for prompt tons, where available, with Indiana terminals reported in the $450-$460/st FOB range in late February. Some tons were reportedly being shipped to Illinois from Oklahoma due to tapped-out inventories, but Oklahoma shipping points were also in short supply due to production outages and product allocations.
Western Cornbelt: Preplant ammonia continued to move to the field in parts of Missouri and Nebraska, although one source described the pace as “sporadic” after a heavier run the previous week. Still, ammonia supplies were described as tight in the region in late February, and prices continued to firm.
The prompt ammonia market was quoted at $420-$425/st FOB in Nebraska, while pricing out of Iowa terminals was reported at $440/st FOB in the western part of the state and up to $445-$450/st FOB in the east. Along with production outages at a number of Southern Plains facilities, sources said Dakota Gasification’s ammonia plant in Beulah, N.D., remained down for a 10-day outage announced the week before (GM Feb. 17, p. 2).
Southern Plains: Ammonia was reportedly running hard in preplant applications in the Southern Plains, with demand already winding down in some parts of Texas. Product was in very tight supply due to plant outages and supply allocations.
Sources quoted the Southern Plains ammonia market firmly in the $420-$440/st FOB range out of any regional facilities still offering prompt tons, with the low reported at Verdigris, Okla.
South Central: Ammonia remained at $415/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., while the upper end of the regional range was pegged at $445/st FOB Henderson, Ky.
Black Sea: The latest ammonia deal done was put at $300/mt FOB for the limited tonnage available. Sources reported that producers are now pushing for $330/mt FOB. One trader said getting the higher price is possible.
Middle East: The last bit of public business for ammonia was the Ma’aden sale to Trammo several weeks ago at $345/mt FOB. Other deals on a contract basis have also been reported at a level slightly lower.
India: Current ammonia prices are being pushed higher following the latest deal at near $350/mt CFR. Sources expect future sales to be even higher.
FACT just closed a tender. Sources said prices have not yet been released, but the Indian company is expected to pay more than the $345-$350/mt CFR paid last month. Reportedly only two companies – Trammo and Muntajat – offered product in the tender.
North Africa: Sorfert in Algeria shut down this week for maintenance, cutting ammonia production in half. Sources report that the plant could be back in full operation as early as this weekend, but more likely the middle of next week.
Also in Algeria, AOA is having a dispute with Mitsubishi over shortcomings in the plant. Reportedly the dispute is over the balance of the payment of $300 million from AOA to Mitsubishi. The Japanese company has called for arbitration in Paris – as per the contract – to settle the issue. Sources do not expect to see a quick resolution.
Southeast Asia: Mitsubishi settled a deal involving 6,000 mt of ammonia for South Korea at $410/mt CFR. Sources said that this is major leap in prices for the area. Up to that point, industry watchers had put the price at $380-$390/mt CFR.