U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Nothing new was reported in the NOLA or Tampa markets.
December NYMEX natural gas closed Nov. 24 at $2.200/mmBtu, down from Nov. 19’s close of $2.276/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: New prompt sales were few in the Eastern Cornbelt, and sources continued to report pressure on spot pricing. Anhydrous ammonia was quoted at $535-$540/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for prompt tons, down another $5-$10/st from last report, with the low in Illinois and the high reported out of Indiana terminals.
Western Cornbelt: Sources continued to report very quiet fertilizer activity in the Western Cornbelt. “Falling prices have not inspired any buying in our area,” said one regional contact last week. “In fact, it’s just the opposite, with everyone willing to wait and see what happens next.”
“No one wants to be the first to quote those prices, or the last,” he continued. “We may see a little activity after Thanksgiving on prepay, but not just yet.”
Ammonia was reported at $505-$510/st FOB in Nebraska, with Iowa terminals quoted at $515-$525/st FOB from west to east. Those levels were down some $5-$15/st from last report, depending on location. Delivered ammonia was pegged at $520-$530/st in Missouri from southern production points, down roughly $20/st.
Southern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market was reported at $440-$450/st FOB out of production points in the Southern Plains region, down $10-$20/st from last report, with the upper end of the regional range pegged at $470-$480/st FOB Kansas pipeline terminals. Sources in some Kansas locations reported ammonia “running pretty good” ahead of incoming wet weather.
South Central: Sources continued to report weakening markets for most fertilizer commodities last week, including ammonia, urea, UAN, phosphates, and potash. “There doesn’t seem to be any commodity that isn’t soft, and thus not much interest,” said one contact. “We are still kicking the can down the road, and eventually this pent-up demand will surface and we’ll be back in business.”
The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $500-$535/st FOB in the region, down some $15-$30/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Memphis, Tenn., and the upper end for fall tons at Henderson, Ky. Sources noted no business, however, with Memphis predominantly a spring market and Henderson’s fall season winding down.
Black Sea: Sources said purchases by Koch and Trammo were the only thing that kept the Yuzhnyy market alive this summer. Now, however, buying demand is down and sellers reportedly are having a hard time finding buyers.
The last bit of business people could point to were Trammo buys from NF and OPZ. One trader said the realistic range for the area is $330-$340/mt FOB, with an emphasis on the lower-priced side.
Normally a market slowly approaching the $320s/mt FOB would worry producers. This time, however, industry sources point to lower break-even points for the Ukrainian producers thanks to the recent natural gas deal with Russia. Now, the break-even point is focused somewhere around $300/mt FOB, said one source, with a range of $280-$310/mt FOB.
It may be a while before plants have to shut down because they will lose money, one source said, but unless something dramatic happens in the marketplace, that point will be hit in the next three to six months. If some producers do have to shut down, one trader said few in the industry would be upset. A reduction in available ammonia could help stabilize the market, he said.
Middle East: Sales out of the Arab Gulf remain some of the least transparen