U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia market continued to be called $260/mt CFR, with NOLA unchanged at the $245/st FOB level. With international prices described as soft at the current time, sources were hesitant to put any predictions on the December Tampa number. Another player said much may depend on the fall domestic ammonia season.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at $390-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low in Illinois and the upper end reported in the Indiana and Ohio markets on a spot basis. “There is no way, even with great fall weather at this point, that we will use all of our fill tons,” said one regional contact at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
Fall applications of ammonia and dry fertilizer were underway in some parts of the Western Cornbelt in early November, but as one source put it, the pace is “not running at full speed.”
The ammonia market remained at $380-$390/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the lower end in Nebraska and the higher numbers out of Iowa terminals.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia postings remained at $360/st DEL in California in early November, with aqua ammonia referenced at $100/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest:
Anhydrous ammonia remained at the $390/st level FOB terminals in Washington, unchanged from last report, with truck-DEL tons quoted at the $420/st mark in Idaho. Railed offers were reported in the $380-$405/st range in the Pacific Northwest in early November, depending on location and point of origin.
Aqua ammonia was unchanged at $104/st FOB Kennewick, Wash.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing had reportedly slipped to C$670-$680/mt DEL in Western Canada, down C$10-$20/mt from last report amid concerns about a poor fall application season. “Ammonia so far is about half of normal fall volumes across the Prairies,” said one regional contact, adding that “there will be significant carryover” to next spring.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf spot ammonia prices remain steady in the $250s/mt FOB. Contract deals are still reported in the $230s/mt FOB. Sources said that price could move up soon, however, based on the FACT award to Trammo at $295/mt CFR into India.
India:
Trammo will supply FACT with two ammonia cargoes of 7,500 mt each at $295/mt CFR. The deal was cast from the last FACT tender, which only received two offers.
Contract buyers in India continue to argue that the prices they are paying are well below $280/mt CFR, which the industry seems to accept as the current level. The lack of specific data, said one trader, leads the rest of the industry to accept the $280/mt CFR level.
Even though the FACT tender was significantly higher, sources said it will most likely have little or no effect on the landed price of contract ammonia in India. The FACT price is usually higher than the contracted price, and often even higher than other spot deals. The small quantities represented by each FACT delivery pushes their price higher.
South Korea:
Just who is supplying whom for 2020 remained up in the air. Sources reported that Namhae initially said it would be using the same suppliers it did in 2019. However, sources now report that Koch – the 2019 supplier – is withdrawing from the Asian ammonia market.
Major contract sales out of the Middle East continue to South Korea. Sources reported that Lotte Fine Chemicals (LFC) has fixed orders of 380,000 mt, with 130,000 mt coming from Mitsui, 100,000 mt from Trammo, and 50,000 mt direct from SABIC. The company also has a running contract for 270,000 mt with Ma’aden for spot sales as needed. To move these tons, LFC has a vessel on time charter through April 2020.
China:
Prices appear to have reached their peak, said international traders. The higher prices have been pressuring phosphate producers to push back against desires for lower prices, but they have been unsuccessful. As more ammonia plants come back online, sources said prices should begin to soften and ease the pressure on the phosphate industry.
Black Sea:
Sources called the ammonia market out of Yuzhnyy flat, with prices remaining in the low-$230s/mt FOB.
Northwest Europe:
Industry watchers said the Antwerp ammonia price has moved up. The usual $50-$60/mt difference with Yuzhnyy has been bumped up, largely because of tighter freight rates.Sources now put the Antwerp market at $285-$290/mt C&F.Baltic prices for November have reportedly not shifted from their October levels.