U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa market continued to be called $260/mt CFR, with the NOLA barge market unchanged at $245/st FOB.
Most players continue to be hesitant to weigh in on December price ideas for Tampa, although a recent Algerian sale to Nutrien at a reported $240/mt FOB would reportedly equate to the U.S. at $275-$280/mt CFR. In the meantime, market bears continue to question the strength of the U.S. fall ammonia season.
U.S. Imports:
September ammonia imports were up 16 percent, to 235,948 st from the year-ago 203,679 st, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. July-September imports were off 10 percent, however, to 636,289 st from the year-ago 710,101 st.
U.S. Exports:
Ammonia exports saw a significant bump in September, to 52,430 st from the year-ago 7,046 st. July-September exports were off 33 percent, however, to 99,293 st from 147,583 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was quoted at $380-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported in the Ohio market on a spot basis, and the upper end out of Indiana terminals. Most Illinois terminals remained at the $390/st FOB level at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $380-$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the lower end in Nebraska and the higher numbers out of Iowa terminals. Sources reported some fall application activity, but the pace remained slow.
“We hear spotty reports of ammonia moving from Canada into the States as the Canadian fall ended early,” commented one source. “The ground temperatures can still accept ammonia, which is a long way of saying there are problems but we have a ways to go before the fat lady sings.”
Northern Plains:
Ammonia pricing continued to be quoted at $365-$390/st FOB in the Northern Plains, depending on location, with the low reported at Beulah, N.D., and the high at Velva, N.D. Delivered ammonia was pegged in the $383-$415/st range in the region at mid-month, but sources reported very little buying going on.
The region has experienced a disappointing fall fertilizer season. “Fall harvest and application have gone terribly,” commented one source, who added that there is “no real optimism” for the remainder of the season.
“We are going to be in for a mad spring rush,” commented another regional contact. “Very little fall tons have moved, so there will be some storage or repricing, but no programs are out yet.”
Great Lakes:
The anhydrous ammonia market ranged from $380-$400/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low reported at Lima, Ohio, and the high for fall tons FOB Huntington, Ind., and Courtright, Ont., to Michigan buyers.
Arab Gulf:
Traders said ammonia producers have plenty of material on hand, but not enough buyers. Reportedly, buyers are now pushing for $230/mt FOB for spot material. Sources said this price has not yet been achieved, but it could only be a matter of time before the excess ammonia held by producers forces a price drop.
The last report from sources puts the spot market in the low-$250s/mt FOB, with contracts at $230-$235/mt FOB.
Black Sea:
Sources said Trammo was able to push down prices. Traders now said the Yuzhnyy price is $220-$225/mt FOB for tons slated to be shipped in early December.
Traders said there still appears to be room for a further drop in prices. Demand for ammonia is not as great as supply. With plants in the Arab Gulf and North Africa coming back online for December shipments, the Yuzhnyy suppliers are facing serious competition for spot market sales into Turkey and other locations easily accessible from North Africa.
One trader said this latest deal out of Yuzhnyy has traders acting as depressed as the prices.
North Africa:
Sorfert reported that it sold a cargo of 25,400 mt to Nutrien at $240/mt FOB. Sources said the price reflects the long position that Sorfert is in as more plants in the area come back online and into full production.
At the same time, OCP claims it bought a cargo from Trammo at $245/mt CFR. Trammo has also told industry watchers that it picked up a cargo from Libya, but the company did not reveal the selling price.
Northwest Europe:
Pricing is still up in the air as the industry waits for the future Baltic prices to be set. Talks for December shipments have not yet begun, but sources said they expect the parties to start getting together next week.
In the meantime, the Antwerp price is currently pegged at $280/mt C&F based on the latest deals coming out of Yuzhnyy and from discussions with traders looking for opportunities out of Baltic ports.
India:
Sales have slackened off except for already committed cargoes. The last bit of spot business puts the price at around $295/mt CFR. Industry sources said any new deals would end up being closer to $290/mt CFR. Contracted tons are now pegged in the $250s/mt CFR, reflecting the ever-softening market.
Southeast Asia:
An auction of 15,000 mt by Kaltim was scrapped. Sources said if the bids are just shy of the reserve price, Kaltim will engage in negotiations and try to ease the price up a bit and close the deal. This time, however, sources said the bids must have been so low that no amount of talking could close the gap.
Officially, Kaltim claims its ammonia is going for $260/mt FOB, but that was a long time ago, said one trader.