U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for February skyrocketed to $330/mt DEL, up $60/mt from January’s $270/mt. Just last week there was speculation that the price might go up $30/mt, to $300/mt. This week, however, with surging phosphate prices and a new ammonia outage at a second Nutrien plant in Trinidad, sources soon predicted an uptick as high as $70/mt might be in order.
Nutrien announced on Jan. 25 that it had taken one of its ammonia facilities in Trinidad offline due to mechanical issues. It expects the outage to last for an extended period, and the company said it is looking at all options to mitigate the supply impact to customers. Nutrien already had one Trinidad ammonia plant down indefinitely due to market conditions. It now has two ammonia plants in operation in Trinidad.
Yara had just announced that it brought its Tringen I plant back up in Trinidad on Jan. 8 after being down since Dec. 1 due to gas curtailments. In the U.S., Louisiana’s Waggaman plant was scheduled for a major turnaround this month.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Prompt ammonia pricing was quoted at $400/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, up $10-$20/st from last report. Spring prepay offers firmed to $420-$460/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Kingston and Huntington, Ind., and the high at Mount Vernon. Most other terminals in Illinois and Indiana were pegged at the $440/st FOB level for prepay pricing.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market reportedly firmed to $400/st FOB Western Cornbelt terminals for prompt tons. Prepay offers were quoted at $420-$440/st FOB in the region, with the low confirmed at Palmyra, Mo., and the high at Garner, Iowa. Sources reported most terminals in Iowa and Nebraska at the $420/st FOB level for prepay tons in late January.
Southern Plains:
The ammonia market FOB Oklahoma and Kansas production points was quoted at $310-$320/st FOB for prompt and $350-$380/st FOB for spring prepay offers, depending on location, with the higher end of both ranges reported at Verdigris, Okla.
South Central:
Prompt ammonia had reportedly firmed to $285/st FOB Donaldsonville, La., and $300/st FOB Midway, Tenn., for truck tons, up $20-$25/st from last report, with another increase expected in February. No truck tons were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., or Cherokee, Ala.
Russia:
Togliattiazot said it produced a record 3.041 million mt of ammonia last year, up from 3.019 million mt in 2019. The company also reported that last year it pumped 2.355 million mt of ammonia from its plants via the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline, which is operated by Transammiak, with 2 million mt transported to Odessa Port Plant’s Ukraine storage tanks.
Ammonia exports from Russia for January-November 2020 were put at 3.8 million mt against 4.2 million during the same period in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. The two largest buyers were the neighboring countries of Ukraine at 749,000 mt and Estonia at 723,000 mt.
Black Sea:
Sources peg the current Black Sea ammonia market at $237-$268/mt FOB. Sources said the area has limited ammonia tonnage available for export. What is available is being offered by suppliers at $270/mt FOB and up.There are reports that Rossosh has a few tons available for February, but only at the right price.
Middle East:
Limited product means suppliers are just working to meet their contracts. The absence of spot ammonia tons makes it difficult to nail down a new price. However, sources said once some tons are available, the price will most likely be closer to $300/mt FOB instead of the current $280/mt FOB.
North Africa:
Sorfert sold 15,000 mt of ammonia for the U.S. Gulf through Koch at a reported $310/mt FOB, with an announced landed price of $340/mt CFR. Industry watchers are trying to figure out where Koch was able to secure a freight rate of only $30/mt.
The import/export numbers for November 2020 were released by the Moroccan government. Morocco imported 1.7 million mt of ammonia from January through November, against 1.5 million during the same period in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. November 2020 imports were put at 138,000 mt against November 2019 imports of 106,000 mt.
The prime supplier for Morocco was Russia. According to the Moroccan numbers, the country imported 735,000 mt from Russia for January-November 2020. However, the Russian export numbers showed it sent 483,000 mt to Morocco. Sources said seeing a difference of 25,000-50,000 mt could easily be explained as the difference between shipping and receiving dates. However, a gap of more than 250,000 mt is a head scratcher.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia price remains in flux as traders look to the February Baltic number and what, if anything, will happen in the Black Sea. For now, sources are calling the price stable at $300-$320/mt C&F. If the Baltic price moves up as expected in February, the new price could top out in the $330s/mt C&F.
Sources said talks are underway for the February Baltic price. For now, however, the range of $250-$275/mt FOB still holds.Industry watchers said the hot market could see suppliers being much more aggressive in their offers, and perhaps even surpassing the $275/mt FOB mark.
Southeast Asia:
Sources said small ammonia sales show landed prices of about $360/mt CFR to Taiwan, for a netback of $290-$300/mt FOB to Malaysia. The strength in pricing is expected to continue as other ammonia producing markets show rising prices.
India:
No new spot ammonia business was reported in India this week. Sources said the tons flowing in are under long-term contracts at levels much lower than the $310-$312/mt CFR last seen in the spot market. Suppliers are said to be pushing hard to raise their prices, and buyers are pushing just as hard to at least hold at the current levels.
Ammonia imports for January-November 2020 came in at 2.3 million mt, just slightly under the 2019 total of 2.4 million mt for the same period, according to Trade Data Monitor.
The value of the ammonia in 2020, according to the reported value to Indian customs, came out to $258.43/mt CFR for January-November 2020, compared with $289.57/mt CFR for the same period in 2019. The material and values reported reflect both spot and cheaper contract tons.