U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for February stands at $330/mt DEL, but sources said new barge and vessel sales this week indicate Tampa will likely go up for March. A NOLA barge trade was reported at $360/st FOB, up $60/st, with yet another trade reportedly being negotiated late in the week.
In addition, Nutrien is taking an Algerian cargo from Fertiglobe at a reported $440/mt CFR in March into the U.S. Gulf.
Sources said ammonia inventories are tight, citing both planned and unplanned outages in the international and domestic market. In Trinidad, Yara’s Tringen II plant is now down due to mechanical issues. Two Nutrien plants are already down in that country. In addition, Yara’s Freeport, Texas, plant is also down due to mechanical issues, while Louisiana’s Waggaman plant is reported to still be offline due to a planned major turnaround.
U.S. Imports:
Imports of ammonia fell 15.0 percent in July-December 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), to 1.14 million st from the year-ago 1.34 million st. December imports fell 26.6 percent, to 201,272 st from the year-ago 274,207 st.
U.S. Exports:
July-December 2020 ammonia exports were up 9.4 percent, to 303,097 st, from 277,093 st one year earlier. Export totals for December were down 5.1 percent, however, to 61,793 st from 65,143 st in December 2019.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported prompt ammonia pricing at the $430-$440/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt, with spring prepay offers ranging from $470-$500/st FOB in the region, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained solidly at the $430-$440/st level FOB Western Cornbelt terminals for prompt tons, depending on location, with spring prepay offers pegged at $470-$490/st FOB in the region.
Northern Plains:
Northern Plains sources reported new prepay offers for ammonia firmly in the $530-$550/st range FOB terminals in North Dakota and Minnesota, up from earlier offers at $440-$475/st FOB. Sources said many wholesale distributors and dealers bought a large chunk of their spring prepay at those lower numbers.
Delivered ammonia prepay was pegged in the $550-$575/st range for limited tons, up from earlier pricing in the $485-$495/st DEL range. Sources reported no prompt offers on the table in early February.
Eastern Canada:
Ammonia pricing in early February was quoted firmly at the C$620/mt level FOB Courtright, Ont., for spring prepay, up C$60/mt from the initial prepay offers at that location.
Black Sea:
A couple of cargoes to be loaded in March have moved up the Yuzhnyy ammonia price. Sources reported a Trammo deal with Rossosh at $307/mt FOB. By week’s end, another trader settled a deal at $310/mt FOB.
The increase in pricing reflects the general attitude in the market that limited material and steady-but-strong demand offer sufficient grounds for continued price strength. The fundamentals, sources said, remain strong enough that further increases are still expected.
Middle East:
Producers continue to claim limited material is available for sale. The tightness in the market means producers have little, if any, to offer in the spot market. At this point, said one trader, the producers are working hard just to fulfill their existing contracts.
Sources noted some of the tightness is related to plants being down for routine maintenance. However, demand is also strong enough that even when the plants come back online, they will have to first repay any tons they borrowed in swap deals before they can move on to dealing with the spot market.
The lack of non-formula-based sales from the Arab Gulf means the $280/mt FOB level identified a few months ago remains as the publicly posted price.
North Africa:
Algeria is reportedly sold out through March. Capping off deals extending into next month was a sale by Fertiglobe of Algerian product to Nutrien at $358-$360/mt FOB. The product is headed for the U.S. for a reported landed price of $400/mt CFR.
Northwest Europe:
The steady upward pressure from Yuzhnyy and North Africa is combining with new deals from Baltic sellers to push up the Antwerp ammonia price. Sources now peg the Northwest Europe price at $345-$350/mt C&F, with more increases to come.
Sources reported a sale from Fertiglobe to Yara from a Baltic port at $317/mt FOB, which represents a sizable leap in pricing. The month opened with deals at $280/mt FOB and buyers hoping that this price level would hover at least until March.
Southeast Asia:
Demand remains strong as some industries begin to ramp up production after COVID-related shutdowns. Reportedly, Indonesia is looking at a floor of $330/mt FOB for its ammonia, representing a move upward of $10-$20/mt.
Sources reported some production issues for Yara in Australia, leaving the company to look to the Southeast Asian market for replacement tons.
Some demand may slacken as the Lunar New Year opens on Feb. 12. China, for example, will be mostly shut down through Feb. 22, and other Asian countries will be taking some extended time off this weekend as part of the celebrations.
India:
Buyers keep looking for product, but so far have not concluded any new deals. For now, buyers seem to be working with material secured under long-term, formula-based contracts rather than new spot business.Sources said any spot deal would have to be in the $350-$38/mt CFR range just to start.
Brazil:
According to Trade Data Monitor, Brazil imported 53,000 mt of ammonia in January 2021, up from the 40,000 mt imported in January 2020.The main supplier was Trinidad, with 44,000 mt. The remaining 9,000 mt came from Algeria.