U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price remains under significant pressure to move up from February’s $330/mt DEL. NOLA barges continue to trade at $360/st FOB, a Tampa equivalent of $397/mt, and recent imports into the U.S. Gulf have gone at approximately $400/mt.
In addition, a new round of ammonia plant outages, spurred by cold weather in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, have idled at least two ammonia plants, Nutrien at Borger, Texas, and LSB at Pryor, Okla. (see related story). Even before the bad weather, the Waggaman, La., plant’s outage was extended to mid-March.
Correction: The Nutrien Algerian cargo referenced last week (GM Feb. 12, p. 2), which was bound for the U.S. Gulf for March, should have read as $400/mt CFR, not $440/mt CFR. It was reported correctly elsewhere in the publication and in the price scan.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The last ammonia offers in the Eastern Cornbelt were steady at $430-$440/st FOB for prompt and $470-$500/st FOB for prepay, depending on location. Sources said most producers had temporarily withdrawn pricing, however, due to the production outages stemming from extremely cold weather and the demands placed upon natural gas and electrical power.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained solidly at the $430-$440/st level FOB Western Cornbelt terminals for the last prompt offers, depending on location, with spring prepay pegged at $470-$490/st FOB in the region. Sources said most producers were not quoting any offers during the week, however, because of production outages stemming from the cold weather.
Southern Plains:
The last ammonia offers were reported at a firm $380/st FOB Oklahoma production points for prompt tons and $340/st FOB Beaumont, Texas, for recent truck business, but sources speculated that the Beaumont price will be up significantly when operations fully resume after the cold snap.
South Central:
Prompt ammonia had reportedly firmed to $375-$390/st FOB for truck tons out of regional production points, but plant outages continued to limit prompt offers in mid-February. Incitec Pivot Ltd., the owner of the Waggaman plant in Louisiana, reported that a major turnaround at the facility that started in January has been extended until mid-March.
Black Sea:
New ammonia sales out of Yuzhnyy have dramatically pushed up prices. Sources reported a cargo sold to Fertiglobe and then to Eurochem showed a netback of $350/mt FOB. Even as this sale was being concluded, inquiries were coming in from buyers in Europe and Africa, leading traders to reach out to as many potential suppliers as possible.
The Yuzhnyy price continues to influence pricing in Northwest Europe. Sources reported the deal done with Eurochem also boosted the Antwerp price to $405/mt C&F.
Sources said even with the major leaps in pricing, there are few obstacles to even higher prices. One trader pointed to a growing tightness in the Arab Gulf, exacerbated by the extension of the Sabic plant turnaround. Also, the cold snap that has hit the U.S. is causing disruption in ammonia production in the U.S. Gulf, further limiting available material.
Middle East:
Sources said material is so tight that no new spot deals were reported. The only ammonia moving out of the area appears to be under long-term contracts with formula-based pricing.
Adding to the situation in the area, Sabic said it was extending its plant’s turnaround another 20 days. The continued closure will keep vital tonnage from a marketplace that is apparently desperate to buy ammonia at almost any price.
If spot tons were available, sources said the price would be just above $300/mt FOB. However, said one trader, without any product to trade that talk is only talk.
Southeast Asia:
Reportedly, more buyers keep showing up on sellers’ doorsteps each day. Sources said the buyers are reaching out for product and appear to be willing to keep paying ever-higher prices.
India:
No new spot business has been done, sources said, because buyers are pushing back against prices in the high-$300s/mt CFR. The last bit of public business was a couple of months ago at $310-$320/mt CFR. Sources stressed that this range is no longer available, despite buyers’ protests.
Traders said eventually Indian buyers will have to pull the trigger and accept the higher prices reflected around the globe. Some are questioning how much ammonia the country has on hand. The most generous estimates indicate that new orders will need to be placed before the end of this month, or end users will face a serious shortage of product.
Northwest Europe:
Pressure from the east and west pushed up ammonia prices to $405/mt C&F. Sources said a cargo picked up in Yuzhnyy worked its way to Antwerp for Eurochem to use in its own system. On the heels of that deal, a cargo that was being shopped around the U.S. Gulf for $490-$500/mt CFR ended up reaching Antwerp at $405/mt C&F.
Sales from Baltic producers remain in the $300-$317/mt FOB range only because they got fixed at the beginning of the month. Sources expect to see higher prices on the table when March talks begin.