U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
As Green Markets went to press, the February price for Tampa ammonia stood at $330/mt CFR, with nothing reported for March. New trades were putting pressure on Tampa to go up.
Earlier in the week, Nutrien confirmed a purchase of 25,000 mt of ammonia from Fertiglobe out of Algeria, which will be loaded in late March or early April to be delivered to the U.S. The company said the purchase reflects a delivered cost of $470/mt, which is up from the last done business of $400/mt.
NOLA barges were last reported at $360/st FOB, a Tampa equivalent of $397/mt. Sellers were suggesting the Tampa price should go up somewhere between $70-$120/mt for March.
In the meantime, most ammonia plants hit by the cold wave at mid-month were reported to be making their way back up in late February. There were unconfirmed reports that the OCI Beaumont plant was still down, but that Iowa Fertilizer Co. in Wever was in start-up. Two major NOLA plants, Freeport and Waggaman, remained down for mechanical and turnaround issues, respectively.
Yara’s Tringen II plant in Trinidad, which had gone down due to mechanical issues, returned to production the week of Feb. 15.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Most producers continued to withhold new pricing for ammonia after pulling offers during the previous week because of weather-related plant shutdowns across the Midwest and Southern Plains.
Sources on Feb. 25 said both CF and Koch were offering no spring ammonia pricing, with the last offers quoted in the $470-$500/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt at mid-month. There were rumors of new spring offers at the $550/st level FOB Lima, Ohio, as the week progressed, however.
Western Cornbelt:
While the last spring ammonia offers were reported in the $470-$490/st FOB range out of CF and Koch terminals in the Western Cornbelt, sources said both producers had withdrawn offers. There were reports that Wever, Iowa, was offering spring tons at the $600/st FOB level as the week progressed, however. In the Northern Plains market, spring ammonia was reported at $530-$550/st FOB.
California:
The ammonia market in California remained at $379/st DEL, with aqua ammonia posted at $109/st FOB. Sources said they expect a “significant increase” in March.
Pacific Northwest:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was steady at $455/st FOB Ritzville and Kennewick, Wash., with delivered tons quoted at $475-$488/st DEL, depending on location and supplier. The aqua ammonia market was pegged at $108-$130/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada:
Limited spring pricing for anhydrous ammonia in Western Canada was reported at C$875/mt DEL in late February, up from C$805-$815/mt early in the month and C$730-$760/mt in mid-January.
Black Sea:
Netbacks from sales to Turkey and Africa has moved the ammonia price into the $360s/mt FOB, according to sources. The deals come on the heels of the $430/mt FOB Algeria deal that cemented higher prices in most major markets.
Middle East:
The lack of any extra tons means producers are not even entertaining bids for spot tons. Producers are holding on to whatever product they have so that they can honor their contracts.
The absence of any spot deals, however, has not prevented traders from speculating where the market would be if tons were available. Sources said the range that buyers would have to look at for bids would be $370-$400/mt FOB, with an emphasis on the upper end.
North Africa:
The Nutrien purchase from Algeria at an estimated $430/mt FOB for delivery to the U.S. at $470/mt CFR led sources to speculate that as long as buyers are willing to pay at that level, the Algerian plants will remain a solid source of product.
Availability of ammonia from Algeria has been hit-or-miss in the past, with some buyers having to keep moving west until they get to the Caribbean to secure tons for their customers. The higher prices now being enjoyed by producers are providing plenty of incentive for producers to keep plants well maintained and operating.
Major buyer OCP in Morocco is said to have stepped away from the spot market in light of the ever-rising ammonia prices. Reportedly, the phosphate giant has enough material on contract to ensure steady operations. One trader noted that higher DAP and MAP prices are making it easier for OCP to accept the higher costs for the ammonia it needs.
Northwest Europe:
Rising prices in the Black Sea and North Africa are putting pressure on ammonia prices in Antwerp to go up. The final push is coming from reports that prices from Baltic suppliers could hit $400/mt FOB in March. If that happens, sources said they expect to see the Northwest Europe price to hit $430/mt C&F.
For now, however, prices remain much lower at the previous level of $405/mt C&F. Sources said the scarcity of product in the spot market is currently the only thing preventing higher prices immediately. Much of the business moving in and out of Antwerp is contract tons.
Sources said at least one bidder into the Baltic market is seriously talking about $400/mt FOB from the area. Producers appear ready to accept the bid, assuming they have the product at the time the buyer wants it. That final point may be a deal killer if the buyer wants immediate shipment instead of waiting a few weeks for the product.
India:
No new spot deals have been reported. There are reports, however, of at least one tender slated to close soon for 40,000 mt to be divided into four monthly shipments starting in March.
If tons are offered and if awards are made, sources said the buyer will have to accept a much higher ammonia price than the last public price of just under $320/mt C&F. Sources said the price for a spot cargo from the Arab Gulf would have to be just under $400/mt FOB, meaning the landed price in India would be closer to $450/mt CFR.
Russia:
The final 2020 export numbers were released by the Russian government this week. According to Trade Data Monitor, Russia exported 4.2 million mt to buyers around the world. This number is down 11 percent from 2019, when the country exported 4.6 million mt.
The main buyers of Russian ammonia included Ukraine at 817,000 mt, Estonia at 795,000 mt, Morocco at 496,000 mt, and Turkey at 415,000 mt. Those four, out of a total of 15 buyers, accounted for more than half of the purchases.
Indonesia:
Exports in 2020 were down about 10 percent, to 1.6 million mt from 1.8 million mt in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor.The main buyers of the Indonesian ammonia were China at 498,000 mt and South Korea at 472,000 mt.
Turkey:
Ammonia imports were up about 18 percent in 2020, to 1.2 million mt from 1 million mt in 2019. The main supplier was Russia, followed by Algeria. While the Turkish government reported 722,000 mt of Russian imports, Russia reported just 415,000 mt going to Turkey. Sources said often the differences can be written off to when and how the information is recorded by the respective government offices.