U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia was concluded at $445/mt CFR for March, up $115/mt, or 35 percent, from February’s $330/mt CFR. Sources had been predicting a significant increase, citing major international and domestic outages.
The mid-February freeze that temporarily idled much nitrogen capacity did not help. In addition, the Yara Freeport plant was down due to mechanical problems, and IPL’s Waggaman, La., plant remains offline until March 15.
All of these factors also weighed on the NOLA ammonia barge market, which moved up to $475/st FOB from $360/st FOB.
Asked about the Tampa increase at the March 3 Bank of America 2021 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference, CF Senior Vice President Bert Frost also noted an increase in industrial demand, citing the caprolactam and phosphate industries. “I would think that every phosphate plant today is running at full speed, soaking up additional ammonia,” Frost said.
Eastern Cornbelt:
CF on March 3 reposted March-June ammonia at $570/st FOB Kingston Mines, Ill.; $580/st FOB Huntington, Ind.; $590/st FOB Illinois terminals at Albany, Peru, and Seneca; $600/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and Terra Haute, Ind.; $620/st FOB Frankfort, Ind.; and $650/st FOB Mount Vernon, Ind., and Henderson, Ky.
Those prices reflect new levels since CF pulled offers in February due to weather-related plant outages and higher natural gas prices, and are up significantly from previous postings in the $470-$500/st FOB range for spring tons in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
CF’s March 3 postings for March-June ammonia firmed to $570/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., $580/st FOB Nebraska terminals at Aurora, Blair, and Fremont, and $585/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Port Neal, and Spencer. Those levels were up roughly $100/st from the last reference prices for spring tons in the region, which were in effect before the mid-February cold weather that caused a number of plant outages and tightened supplies. CF continues to offer no new ammonia pricing at Verdigris and Woodward, Okla.
Iowa sources reported limited ammonia offers from other producers ranging from $585-$600/st FOB in early March.
Northern Plains:
Sources reported firming prices for anhydrous ammonia in early March. Sources said Koch moved its ammonia price up to $595/st FOB Murdock, Minn., on March 2. CF followed on March 3, reposting March-June ammonia prices at $570/st FOB Glenwood, Minn., $585/st FOB Pine Bend, Minn., $600/st FOB Grand Forks, N.D., and $675/st FOB Velva, N.D.
Those prices reflect new levels since producers pulled offers in February due to weather-related plant outages, and are up significantly from previous postings in the $530-$550/st FOB range for spring tons in the Northern Plains regions.
Great Lakes:
Sources reported higher prices for ammonia in the Great Lakes region in early March. Reference prices from CF for March-June tons firmed on March 3 to $540/st FOB Courtright, Ont., and $580/st FOB Huntington, Ind., with Koch referenced at the $585/st level FOB Huntington. Those levels were up $50/st from February and a full $100-$150/st above January prices. Sources also quoted new spring offers at $550/st FOB Lima, Ohio.
California:
Sources reported that Calamco on March 1 reposted anhydrous ammonia at $572/st DEL in California, up from the last reference price of $379/st DEL. The company’s aqua ammonia posting in California firmed on March 1 to $157/st FOB, up from $109/st FOB. Industry sources had been expecting a significant price jump from Calamco ahead of the spring season, as the last postings had been in effect since June 2020.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices were also firming in the Pacific Northwest, with reports of new offers in the $600-$620/st DEL range, up significantly from the last reported range of $475-$488/st DEL.
Black Sea:
The lack of excess material from Yuzhnyy for the spot ammonia market leaves public pricing stable in the $360s/mt FOB. Once tons are available for export, however, sources said buyers should expect to pay up to $400/mt FOB.
The expected strength in pricing from the area comes from prices in other parts of the world and an offer from Turkey. Sources said Gemlik is offering 23,000 mt at $500/mt FOB. Traders said the seller may not get that price, but the fact that the company is starting negotiations at that level indicates how tight the ammonia market is, sources said.
Middle East:
After a long break of any spot ammonia deals, SABIC reported that it closed a sale with a Taiwan buyer at $340/mt FOB.
The price is lower than what many expected to see, leaving some to wonder if the sale is part of a formula-based deal. Earlier predictions of a spot deal suggested buyers might be faced with offers closer to $400/mt FOB.
India:
The country reportedly needs ammonia, but buyers are reluctant to step up in an ever-rising market. The DAP producers are especially hesitant, because the price of each of the inputs needed for their production is rising. The increases are making it difficult to provide DAP and other phosphate-based fertilizers at prices favorable to the farmers.
Northwest Europe:
Higher ammonia prices from Trinidad and the Middle East, combined with the expected price from Yuzhnyy, have combined to set pricing expectations at $450-$460/mt C&F in Northwest Europe. Sources added that sales in the low-$380s/mt FOB from Baltic suppliers underscored the new level.