U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for March continued to be called $445/mt CFR, with the NOLA barge market at $475/st FOB. The supply situation in the area is starting to improve, as the Yara Freeport plant in Texas was reported to be in the process of coming back up and there were unconfirmed reports that OCI’s Beaumont plant was as well.
IPL’s Waggaman, La., plant is expected to return to operation on March 15 after an extended turnaround that began in January. These outages, along with those in Trinidad, have stressed Tampa and NOLA pricing.
U.S. Imports:
January ammonia imports totaled 265,460 st, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, firming 9.6 percent from the year-ago 242,312 st. July-January imports were down 11.2 percent, to 1.41 million st from 1.59 million st the year before.
U.S. Exports:
Exports of ammonia fell 6.9 percent in July-January, to 353,121 st from the year-ago 379,341 st. January exports stood at 50,024 st, 51.1 percent below the year-ago 102,248 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported ammonia pricing at $650/st FOB East Dubuque, Ill., with March 3 reference prices from CF remaining at $570/st FOB Kingston Mines, Ill.; $580/st FOB Huntington, Ind.; $590/st FOB Illinois terminals at Albany, Peru, and Seneca; $600/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and Terra Haute, Ind.; $620/st FOB Frankfort, Ind.; and $650/st FOB Mount Vernon and Henderson, Ky.
Western Cornbelt:
A dearth of supply continued to push up ammonia prices in the Western Cornbelt.
Sources reported new ammonia offers from Koch at $615/st FOB terminals in Iowa and Nebraska, while prices from CF remained at March 3 postings of $570/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., $580/st FOB Nebraska terminals at Aurora, Blair, and Fremont, and $585/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Port Neal, and Spencer.
Southern Plains:
Sources reported much higher ammonia prices amid ongoing reports of tight supply and continued production troubles stemming from the arctic blast in February.
Limited ammonia offers were reported at $600/st FOB Pryor, Okla., $615/st FOB Enid, Okla., and Dodge City, Kan., and $630-$635/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan. Sources said no current pricing is being offered from Verdigris and Woodward, Okla., or out of Gulf Coast production points.
South Central:
Sources reported no current ammonia offers in the South Central region due to plant outages and tight supply. No current prices were being quoted out of Donaldsonville, La.; El Dorado, Ark.; Cherokee, Ala.; Hopewell, Va.; and Midway, Tenn.
Black Sea:
Limited tons make identifying the spot market for Yuzhnyy difficult, sources said. Reportedly, at least one deal has been done at $400/mt FOB, while all the talk seems to be at levels much higher.
International traders are saying that the tightness in the global ammonia market and the limited quantities available from the Black Sea could easily push pricing to $410-$420/mt FOB.
Middle East:
Even with reports of limited tonnage, sources said some small ammonia sales were possible. According to sources, Ma’aden reportedly sold 10,000 mt to an unnamed buyer for $400/mt FOB.
The small quantity and high price did not surprise industry watchers. The global market has been tight, and availability of material from the Arab Gulf has been especially limited. A small order at a high price was expected, said one trader.
India:
Buyers keep looking around for product, but keep pulling back after getting offers much higher than they are willing to pay. Sources said one buyer sent a bid to Petronas in Malaysia at $400/mt FOB. Unfortunately for the buyer, however, sources said the response was that Petronas had no material for March or April.
Northwest Europe:
Baltic prices remained tied to formulas with ever-rising netbacks. Sources said $400/mt FOB from a Baltic supplier is possible, especially after that level has been achieved in the Arab Gulf and Black Sea. The higher price has pushed the Northwest Europe market to $440-$450/mt C&F.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports so far this year were reported at 105,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, using government figures. The January-February numbers for 2021 are up dramatically from the 62,000 mt during the same period in 2020. February imports were at 52,000 mt, against February 2020 imports of 23,000 mt.