U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for March continued to be called $445/mt CFR. However, a new NOLA barge trade was reported at $500/st, up from $475/st FOB. The production situation continues to improve, with all major NOLA plants believed to now be back in production, including IPL’s Waggaman, La., plant, which was due back up March 15 after a lengthy turnaround.
Despite these improvements, other players argued that the “big freeze” in February had a long-lasting impact. There are unconfirmed reports that CF’s Woodward, Okla., plant was offline. CF initially acknowledged that its Oklahoma plants were impacted by the weather, but the company said it does not comment on day-to-day plant operations. In the wake of the freeze, the company said the industry could see the loss of several hundred thousand tons of both ammonia and upgraded products (GM Feb. 19, p. 38).
In addition, sources continue to cite outages in Trinidad and good demand both domestically and internationally. These factors, sources said, could push the Tampa April price up beyond the current $445/mt CFR to over the $500/mt CFR mark. There have been reports that new trades into the U.S. Gulf are now priced in the $525-$530/mt CFR range, which would be in line with earlier barge trades of $475/st FOB.
In the meantime, there has been some contention over the legitimacy of the $470/mt CFR trade reported for the U.S. before Tampa was traded for March (GM Feb. 26, p. 2). The vessel in question did not actually make it to the U.S. Gulf, although the parties involved reported that another vessel loaded with a like quantity at a similar price was swapped.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to range from $570-$650/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Kingston Mines, Ill., and the high at Mount Vernon, Ind. Other terminal prices include $580/st FOB Huntington, Ind.; $590/st FOB Illinois terminals at Albany, Peru, and Seneca; $600/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and Terra Haute, Ind.; $610/st FOB Trilla, Ill.; $620/st FOB Frankfort, Ind.; and $650/st FOB Henderson, Ky.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources said ammonia was starting to move on preplant corn in parts of Missouri before the wet weather moved in, but all activity ground to a halt during the week. Ammonia prices continued to range from $570/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., to $580-$615/st FOB terminals in Nebraska and Iowa, depending on location.
With demand now delayed because of the wet conditions, sources said they expect ammonia inventories to be recharged before the next big push. Most major plants that were offline in the New Orleans area in late February have now returned to production.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia postings in California remained at the March 1 reference of $572/st DEL from Calamco, up from the company’s last reference price of $379/st DEL. Calamco’s aqua ammonia posting in California firmed on March 1 to $157/st FOB, up from $109/st FOB. Industry sources had been expecting a significant price jump from Calamco ahead of the spring season, as the last postings had been in effect since June 2020.
Pacific Northwest:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was quoted at $600-$620/st DEL, depending on location, up significantly from the $475-$488/st DEL range reported in late February. The aqua ammonia market was pegged at $150-$160/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada:
Limited spring pricing for anhydrous ammonia in Western Canada was reported at C$940-$980/mt DEL in mid-March, up from C$875/mt DEL at last report and C$805-$815/mt in early February, and reflecting an increase of more than C$200/mt since the start of the year.
Black Sea:
Ammonia prices jumped as supplies remain tight. Sources reported 10,000 mt sold to Trammo at $430/mt FOB. The deal represents a $30/mt increase in just one week, and traders said there is nothing on the horizon to slow down the price hikes. Next-week deals are expected to be done at least at the $450/mt FOB level.
Technical issues as some facilities will keep supplies limited. Sources said Togliatti will only have about 40,000 mt to offer in April. This will almost ensure steady price increases in the area.
Middle East:
The lack of any excess material has shut down the spot market. Sources said producers are doing all they can to keep up with their contracted business.
The formula-based deals are showing growing strength. Producers said the material going to India under such deals now has a netback of $390-$410/mt FOB. Nailing down these claims is difficult, but international traders said the price fits with the way the market is moving.
North Africa:
Bloomberg reported that the FERTIAL plant in Annaba in Algeria has shipped its first 15,000 mt of ammonia to Europe after restarting in February. The plant was closed for two years, but restarted earlier this year.
A 6.0 magnitude earthquake in the area earlier this week reportedly may cause some power outages, but no damage was reported to buildings.
Egypt sold ammonia cargos at various prices. A cargo of 25,000 mt reportedly was sold for delivery to the U.S. at $435/mt FOB. Another cargo, reportedly for Jordan, went for $515/mt FOB. The sale came after the earlier U.S.-bound material. Sources noted the price difference reflects the volatile nature of the current market.
India:
Buyers are looking for spot tons, but failing to find any. Sources said the usual suppliers in Malaysia and Indonesia are sold out. Arab Gulf suppliers said they only have material for their long-term customers.
Southeast Asia:
Phosphate producers in Asia are complaining of the high prices they have to pay for their inputs. One ammonia trader noted that every 10 years or so ammonia spikes and the buyers complain, forgetting the intervening years when most ammonia producers are running close to break-even prices.
The latest price paid into China is reportedly $500/mt CFR for a small cargo from Ma’aden.
Buyers in South Korea and Taiwan are getting what they can under their contracts. Sources said some of them have had to look around for spot tons to make up for occasional short orders. Reportedly, a Taiwan buyer is about to receive a cargo from Iran, while South Korean buyers are taking all they can from Arab producers.
Northwest Europe:
Price increases from Black Sea and Baltic suppliers are affecting the Northwest Europe ammonia price. Sources said the level is now around $500/mt C&F.
The tightness comes from steady demand in Europe and local plants not operating as well as they should. It seems that the major ammonia producers are not able to cover the general needs in Europe, leaving buyers to scramble for tons from whatever source is available.
The search for ammonia has led to buyers tapping into the dwindling reserves at Antwerp and is driving up prices at Baltic ports. Sources said a spot deal was out of the Baltic at $470/mt FOB for about 25,000 mt. Sources speculated that the material is bound for the U.S. The price reflects a $90/mt jump in just one week.