U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for May rolled over from April’s $545/mt CFR. Most sources had predicted a rollover or a slight change.
Incitec Pivot’s Waggaman, La., ammonia plant was reported to have started up after its extended turnaround that was slated to end on April 15, but there were unconfirmed reports late in the week that the plant may again be having problems. It has been in turnaround since January. The company had not responded to inquiries at press time.
Some cite the long-term outage at the plant, plus the “big freeze” in mid-February and a temporary unexpected outage at Yara’s Freeport plant as major reasons for Tampa and NOLA prices going up so much so far this year.And despite improved economics, mechanical issues continue to be a problem for two of Nutrien’s plants in Trinidad.
Eastern Cornbelt:
With the preplant ammonia run pretty much over, sources quoted pricing at $615-$665/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $15/st from last report. The low end of the range was confirmed at Kingston Mines, Ill., and Huntington, Ind., with the upper end at Lima, Ohio. Other spot offers included $625/st FOB Trilla and Wood River, Ill.; $630/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and $650/st FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind., Henderson, Ky.
One contact described spring ammonia volumes overall as “fair, nothing huge” in his trade area. He noted that fall application volumes were high, and most farmers this spring “did what they expected to do.” Others, however, said they “struggled to keep up” during the strong preplant run, with many expecting a strong sidedress season as well.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources reported some competitive ammonia offers at $585-$590/st DEL in Missouri for limited tons from Enid, Okla., as the preplant season winds down. Terminal prices continued to range from $600-$615/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high reported at Palmyra, Mo.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia remained at $626/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at $172/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices were slightly higher in the Pacific Northwest, to $650-$665/st FOB, depending on location, up from a flat $650/st FOB at last report. Delivered ammonia tons ranged from $655-$680/st in the region.
Aqua ammonia in the region was quoted firmly at $155-$160/st FOB and $170/st DEL.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing in Western Canada remained in a broad range at C$950-$1,050/mt DEL in late April, depending on location.
Black Sea:
There are strong rumors that a sale to OCP showed a netback of $415/mt FOB, representing a significant drop in the netback price. However, sources said there is little to explain why a producer would accept such a low price.
Sources said Rossosh does have a bit of extra ammonia available for sale, but not in quantities that would lead to a panicked sale at the rumored levels. The extra ammonia comes from problems with other production lines in the complex. These issues, once resolved, will begin to take up the ammonia and once again tighten the market.
Middle East:
The SAFCO IV plant is now fully back up and running. Sources said the gradual step up in production will add some extra tons to an area that has experienced shortages in the past few weeks.
The lack of extra material has prevented any new spot deals from occurring, leaving the price in the Arab Gulf around $430/mt FOB. Sources said once the SAFCO facility is running at full capacity, some extra ammonia might be made available to a market looking for product.
India:
A tender closing on May 5 by FACT may help set new spot pricing for India. Sources said the tender is for the usual 7,500 mt to be delivered the end of May.
Northwest Europe:
The stability in pricing in Yuzhnyy and Tampa is reflected in pricing in the area. Sources said the price is holding at $520-$530/mt C&F. Traders said, however, that if the rumors of a deal at $415/mt FOB from the Black Sea are true, the price here could come down dramatically.
Sources are waiting to see what happens in the talks surrounding Baltic supplies. Going into this week, the general view was that the price would rollover in the $460s/mt FOB. However, if the Yuzhnyy price is indeed much lower, a similar drop would be expected here as well.
Southeast Asia:
Pricing in the area is showing some stability. Sources said prices into China are focused on $570/mt CFR, while Taiwan deals are reported at $580-$600/mt CFR.
First-quarter ammonia imports by Thailand were up 2.7 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 95,000 mt from 93,000 mt in first-quarter 2020. March 2021 imports were put at 39,000 mt, down from 44,000 mt in March 2020.