U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for May continued to be called $545/mt CFR, with the last done NOLA barges at $545/st FOB.
Reports continue that Incitec Pivot’s Waggaman, La., plant has problems, as well as Mosaic’s Faustina, La., plant. Neither company had responded to inquiries at press time, leaving sources to speculate that ammonia may still be tight in the NOLA area.
Nutrien, which has had two plants down in Trinidad due to mechanical issues, reported that as of April 30, all four ammonia plants in Trinidad were operating, but at reduced rates due to process constraints. As a result of planned maintenance in late Q2 and in Q4 this year, the company estimates it will achieve production equivalent to three plants for the balance of 2021. Supply could be further reduced in May because of gas curtailments.
To add to its supply, Nutrien said it has committed to purchase up to 25,000 mt from Yara Freeport in second-half May at the May market price, and this will be incorporated into its vessel shipment program.
Eastern Cornbelt:
With the preplant ammonia run essentially over and sidedress demand expected to begin as soon as fields dry out, sources continued to quote ammonia pricing at $615-$665/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Kingston Mines, Ill., and Huntington, Ind., and the high at Lima, Ohio.
Other spot offers in early May remained at $625/st FOB Trilla and Wood River, Ill.; $630/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and $650/st FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind., Henderson, Ky.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted the ammonia market at $600-$625/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with continued reports of delivered offers for as low as $585-$590/st into Missouri for limited tons from Enid, Okla.
Sources said sidedress demand is expected to begin soon. “Lots of guys are talking about UAN being cheaper, so ammonia may lose some tons to UAN, but the ammonia demand will be there in some form,” said one contact.
Northern Plains:
The ammonia market was reported in a narrower range at $620-$650/st FOB regional terminals in early May, with the low at Grand Forks, N.D., and the upper end confirmed at Velva and Leal, N.D. Sources reported the last delivered offers in the $660-$680/st range in North Dakota.
“Logistics have been tight, but not as tight as it would be if it weren’t so dry in North Dakota,” said one regional contact.
Black Sea:
Sources said buyers and sellers are talking about ammonia prices centered on $450/mt FOB, even as major buyer OCP argues the price is $415/mt FOB.
International traders said the OCP price most likely takes into account deductions for rebates and discounts associated with long-term contracts. They point to the $350/mt FOB price out of the Baltics as proof that no one else is accepting the OCP argument.
Sources said normal volumes are moving out of Yuzhnyy. Most of the tons are coming out under contracts, leaving the spot market empty.
Middle East:
Ammonia supply is slowly building up now that more plants are back in operation. Sources said it will take a few weeks before any large quantity of spot material is available for sale.
One trader noted the buildup could allow for some material to be offered in the FACT/India tender if the delivery time is flexible enough. The tender for 7,500 mt closed on May 5 for delivery by the end of June.
Until the results of the FACT tender are known or some other spot deal occurs in the Arab Gulf, the non-contract price remains at $430/mt FOB.
India:
The FACT tender for 7,500 mt closed on May 5. As Green Markets went to press, the buyer had not revealed any information about participating companies or prices.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia supply and demand situation remains solid, keeping prices stable at $520-$530/mt C&F in the area.
The May price out of the Baltic ports was reportedly settled at $450/mt FOB. The price represents a softening from the past two months, but still shows enough strength to prevent the market from getting nervous over too rapid a decline. The price also confirms that the Yuzhnyy price should be around $450/mt FOB, rather than the $415/mt FOB level that OCP is arguing for.
Turkey:
First-quarter ammonia imports in Turkey were down 31 percent according to Trade Data Monitor, to 242,000 mt from 350,000 mt during the same period in 2020. Black Sea neighbors Russia and Ukraine were the top two suppliers at 167,000 mt and 46,000 mt, respectively.
March 2021 imports were down slightly, to 108,000 mt from 111,000 mt in March 2020. Russia supplied the bulk of the urea this year at 70,000 mt, with Ukraine sending 27,000 mt.