U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for May continued to be called $545/mt CFR, with the last done NOLA barges at $545/st FOB.
June pricing may be contentious – buyers think it is time for a drop, but outages could be a factor. Incitec Pivot’s Waggaman, La., ammonia plant, which has been up and down since hurricane season, continued to be down last week (see Incitec Pivot earnings story).
Nutrien reported that its Geismar, La., plant was expected to be down ten days due to heavy rain. In the meantime, the company brought back up two idled Trinidad plants, but gas curtailments and planned turnarounds are expected to impact production levels. Nutrien also has its Borger, Texas, plant down for a 65-day turnaround.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was unchanged at $615-$665/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Kingston Mines, Ill., and Huntington, Ind., and the high at Lima, Ohio. Other spot offers ranged from $625-$650/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana in mid-May.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at $600-$625/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with continued reports of delivered offers for as low as $585-$590/st into Missouri for limited tons from production points in Oklahoma.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia was unchanged at $626/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at $172/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices were unchanged at $650-$665/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location, with delivered tons quoted at $675-$680/st in the region. Aqua ammonia in the region remained at $155-$160/st FOB and $170/st DEL.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing in Western Canada remained in a broad range at C$950-$1,050/mt DEL in mid-May, depending on location.
Black Sea:
Ammonia shipments out of Yuzhnyy are all said to be under contracts. Technical issues at Toaz are limiting the amount of ammonia available for export. Sources said some regular buyers from the area have had to look elsewhere for product, and this situation might continue for a few more weeks.
The lack of any spot business means getting a new spot price indicator is not happening. So far, talks for contracts are showing a slight softening of the price into the $430s/mt FOB. Reportedly, Trammo and Ostchem have been in extended talks. Trammo is looking for a price closer to $400/mt FOB, while Ostchem is arguing for the $450s/mt FOB. Sources said it looks as if there may be an agreement in the $430s/mt FOB.
Producers have little wiggle room in pricing. Traders said the rising price of natural gas will make any deal in the low-$400s/mt FOB difficult to pull off.
India:
The closing of the FACT tender for three lots of 7,500 mt was extended to May 20. As Green Markets went to press, details of the tender results were not released by the Indian buyer.
International traders said the recent move by the Indian government to increase the DAP subsidy could lead to stronger demand for the phosphate fertilizer. In turn, said sources, demand for ammonia might also increase.
Middle East:
Production is back up at Ma’aden following an unexpected week-long shutdown. Even with the plant running again, there is still a backlog of orders to fill. One trader said there is a lineup of at least four vessels waiting to be loaded.
The tightness in the market is evidenced by the lack of any spot deals out of the area. Traders said they were hoping that even one small lot might be sold on a spot basis to give the market an indication of where things really are.
Contracted tons out of the area have an estimated netback in the low-$500s/mt FOB. A normal gap between contract and spot tons would put a spot price in the $520s/mt FOB. At the same time, however, a sale of $580/mt FOB out of Malaysia is seen as having an Arab Gulf-equivalent price in the $530s/mt FOB.
Sources are watching the FACT/India tender closely. If the tender is not scrapped, the number of offers submitted, along with the offered prices, would give a long-awaited look at where the spot market might settle.
Northwest Europe:
Ammonia prices remain at $520-$530/mt C&F as the supply and demand balance in Europe seems to have stabilized. Likewise, the Baltic price is holding steady around $450/mt FOB. Talks on the June price are expected to start early next week.
North Africa:
Sources said OCP picked up 15,000 mt from Libya. According to OCP, they saw a temporarily low price and snapped up a bargain. According to just about everyone else, the phosphate giant moved on the product because it needed the ammonia. Reportedly Algeria is sold out for May and June.
South Korea:
April ammonia imports of 92,000 mt in South Korea were the lowest so far this year, while being up 10 percent from April 2020 imports of 83,000 mt. Year-to-date imports were reported at 472,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up slightly from 460,000 mt last year. Indonesia remains the dominant supplier of ammonia to South Korea.