U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for June dropped $10/mt, to $535/mt CFR, down from May’s $545/mt CFR. Sources attributed the decline to more production capacity coming back online within the past month or so.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia was quoted at $615-$625/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from last report, with the low at Kingston Mines, Ill., and Huntington, Ind., and the high at Lima, Ohio. Other Illinois terminals were pegged at $615-$620/st FOB Trilla, Wood River, and Cowden, with Terra Haute, Ind., reported at the $620/st FOB mark.
“The sidedress ammonia market has seen some weakness, but not nearly as much as the last few seasons,” said one contact. “Sidedress is going good, but a majority of that demand is UAN.”
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was quoted at $600-$620/st FOB terminals in Iowa and Nebraska, depending on location, with the Palmyra, Mo., market pegged at the $615/st FOB level. Sources also continued to report delivered offers for as low as $585-$590/st into Missouri for limited tons from Enid, Okla.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia pricing was reported in a narrow range at $640-$650/st FOB regional terminals in late May, depending on availability, with the Velva, N.D., market pegged at the $645/st FOB level. Sources said the last delivered ammonia business was at the $685/st level in the Dakotas, but there was very little demand in late May.
Great Lakes:
Ammonia pricing was pegged at $570-$625/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low quoted by Michigan sources for tons pulled from Courtright, Ont., and the high FOB Lima. The market FOB Huntington remained at the $615/st FOB level in late May.
India:
The FACT ammonia tender closed with only one offering company. Because the buyer needed the ammonia, it accepted the offer. Sources said Trammo will supply two cargoes of 7,500 mt each at $595/mt CFR.
Previous efforts to conclude tenders for this tonnage were scrapped because of the ever-rising price, or because of a lack of participation due to the tightness of supply in the area. This time around, however, sources said Trammo will be able to supply the cargoes for mid-June and early-July deliveries.
Middle East:
The FACT/India tender offered the first opportunity in a long time to see what the spot ammonia market out of the Arab Gulf looks like. The netback from the Indian tender put the Arab Gulf spot price around $550/mt FOB. Sources said the range could be as low as $545/mt FOB, depending on the final freight costs.
There is no guarantee that the ammonia going into the Indian tender will actually come from the Arab Gulf, as some have speculated it could come from Indonesia. Wherever it is sourced, however, the awarding of the tender has now allowed industry watchers to calculate the Arab Gulf spot price more accurately after a lengthy period of no spot deals being done.
Availability of ammonia from the Arab Gulf has been tight for some time. Some plants have experienced production issues, such as the current shutdown of Ma’aden, at a time when demand has been strong. The supply-demand ratio was leaning to more demand than product. Material being sent out of the area was all covered under existing contracts or other long-term pricing plans, leaving the spot market barren.
The tight situation continues to confound the market. Sources reported that at least two contracted cargoes were cancelled because of a lack of available tons. The tightness in the market is expected to continue well into June. Sources said the Ma’aden shutdown is scheduled to continue for at least another four weeks.
Black Sea:
Ammonia prices have not shifted in the area, as supply and demand remains tightly balanced. Sources said the limited tonnage coming out of Yuzhnyy was spoken for long ago.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia price out of Antwerp remains at $520-$530/mt C&F as European demand parallels supply.
Talks for the June Baltic price have started, with buyers looking to replicate the success of Tampa buyers in getting a $10/mt reduction in the June contract price. However, producers are being equally hard-nosed about the situation. They seem to have dug in their heels on at least rolling over the $450/mt FOB price into June.
North Africa:
Sources said OCP is stepping up its DAP production, which means it needs to draw on more ammonia. So far, it has been able to add to its ammonia supply by buying from other Mediterranean countries.
Reportedly, OCP recently picked up an ammonia cargo from Libya and has also talked with Algerian producers. The Algerians are said to be happy selling their product to the Mediterranean market rather than looking farther afield.
Southeast Asia:
The tightness of the ammonia market is reflected in its steady-to-strong pricing. Sources reported that the main producers in Indonesia and Malaysia have no extra tons for sale through June and possibly into July.
China:
Ammonia imports for January-April were up 29 percent, to 417,000 mt from 324,000 mt during the same period in 2020. The main suppliers for the first four months were Indonesia with 135,000 mt and Saudi Arabia with 101,000 mt.April imports were down nearly by half, to 61,000 from 115,000 in April 2020.