U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
June Tampa ammonia prices continued to be called $535/mt CFR.
The July price for Tampa may be a bit more contentious than earlier expected, as some players argue that international prices are much higher, particularly with trades into Southeast Asia. As a result, they said this should mean an uptick at Tampa. However, others claim inventories in the U.S. Gulf and Trinidad are now longer than in the recent past and there is no need for a price increase.
Sources reported that the Waggaman, La., ammonia plant returned to production earlier this month after its last turnaround. The plant, which has been outage-plagued during the first half of 2021, was reported to be producing at normal levels once again.
In the meantime, as previously reported (GM May 7, p. 41), Nutrien’s Borger, Texas, nitrogen facility (ammonia and urea) is in the midst of a major 65-day planned turnaround that began on May 3. The company said it will continue to ship inventory per its supply/demand plan.
Nutrien’s Redwater, Alta., facility is expecting a planned turnaround stretching from late July into early October. The company initially indicated it would be a 68-day turnaround starting on July 23.
U.S. Imports:
April ammonia imports totaled 275,401 st, according to the Department of Commerce, down 3.8 percent from the year-ago 286,172 st. Imports totaled 2.13 million st in the July-April period, a 9.1 percent year-over-year decline from 2.34 million st.
U.S. Exports:
July-April exports totaled 464,265 st, up 6.6 percent from the year-ago 435,603 st. April exports were 11,285 st, up 73.6 percent from 6,501 st in the prior year.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Prompt ammonia prices in mid-June ranged from $615-$625/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana, depending on location, with the upper end of the regional range reported at $630-$635/st FOB Lima, Ohio. Sources said sidedress demand for ammonia remains strong in Ohio.
“Ammonia remains very snug in the Midwest,” said one industry source. “Customers are looking for summer fill tons but not getting quotes from the producers due to tightness in supply. Tampa ammonia will likely be higher than last month.”
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $600-$620/st FOB terminals in Iowa and Nebraska, depending on location, with pricing at Palmyra, Mo., steady at the $615/st FOB level. The last delivered offers into Missouri were reported at $585-$590/st for tons from Oklahoma.
Northern Plains:
With drought conditions stressing crops and limiting sidedress demand, ammonia prices appeared to be slipping in the Northern Plains. The market was pegged at $575-$600/st FOB and $645/st DEL in the region, down from the last reported $640-$650/st FOB and $685/st DEL. The low end of the FOB range was reported in Grand Forks, N.D.
Sources reported no activity on ammonia fill. “I’m not sure if there will be an official ammonia program up here with the lack of demand due to weather,” said one contact.
Great Lakes:
Ammonia pricing was pegged at $570-$635/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low quoted by Michigan sources for tons pulled from Courtright, Ont., and the high FOB Lima, Ohio. The market FOB Huntington, Ind., was reported at the $615-$625/st FOB level in mid-June.
Sources continued to report sidedress applications taking place in the region at mid-month. “We saw great spring volumes, especially early,” commented one Michigan source. “We are well into sidedress now for ammonia and UAN.”
Eastern Canada:
The last offers for anhydrous ammonia in Eastern Canada were quoted at C$770-$775/mt FOB Courtright, Ont.
Black Sea:
Reported ammonia sales out of Yuzhnyy showed continued price increases as demand remains strong in the global market. Sources said a sale by Ostchem at $530/mt FOB to Trafigura created a new price level.
The latest deal, said one trader, will most likely be the floor for pricing in the coming weeks as demand in Asia remains strong. Sources suspect the Trafigura tons will go to India, which has been short of ammonia because its usual sources have had limited supplies. Deals going into next week are expected to move closer to $550/mt FOB as the limited tonnage available for spot deals gets snapped up.
Middle East:
Ammonia availability from Arab Gulf producers remains limited. Sources said the lack of extra tons means no spot deals have been done. Even some contract arrangements have had to be renegotiated due to limited tonnage.
Sources said supplies are so limited that even high bids have not been able to shake loose extra tonnage for shipment in June or July. Without new spot deals, the public price remains at $610/mt FOB.
Iranian exports of ammonia for January-May this year were up 142 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 251,000 mt from 104,000 mt for the same period last year. The main buyer this year was India at 157,000 mt.
May exports for 2021 were reported at 62,000 mt against 41,000 mt for May 2020, representing a 52 percent increase. Again, the main buyer was India, taking 60,000 mt for the month.
India:
Sources reported an ammonia sale at $670/mt CFR, but without strong confirmation. The price fits with the sale by Ostchem to Trafigura out of Yuzhnyy, and many in the industry think this is where the product is coming from.
When the price moved to $650/mt CFR earlier this month, sources said $670/mt CFR and up were likely. The earlier price, which at the time sent shockwaves through the market, is now seen as too low to be repeated.
Southeast Asia:
Ammonia buyers are looking far and wide for tons, and seem to be willing to pay dearly for the material.Sources reported that Koch was able to sell 40,000 mt from Trinidad to South Korea at $675/mt CFR. The price, sources said, will move up the Trinidad netback and possibly influence higher prices in Tampa.
Part of the desperation of buyers comes not just from strong demand, but also due to disruptions in production for traditional suppliers. SABIC said its facility is still down, with no indications when production will restart. PAU is Indonesia is down with unspecified production issues. Malaysian plants are slowly coming back online, but first have to cover backlogged orders before addressing current needs.
Source reported that a cargo from Malaysia was sold to a Chinese buyer at $640/mt FOB, with the deal being handled by Trammo.
North Africa:
Phosphate giant OCP reportedly is operating at full capacity, keeping up its strong demand for more ammonia. The demand from Morocco is keeping producers in Libya and Algeria happy, as well as producers in the Caribbean and the Black and Baltic Seas.
Northwest Europe:
June prices from Baltic suppliers remain the oddity in the ammonia market. Sources said the $435/mt FOB price successfully negotiated for the month of June is likely to be blown away in July. Talks have not yet started, but sources said the higher prices in the Black Sea, Caribbean, and Arab Gulf all point to higher Baltic prices.
The Antwerp price remains steady at $520-$530/mt C&F, but is expected to move once the July Baltic price is set.