U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
July Tampa ammonia prices continued at $585/mt CFR. In the absence of any recent NOLA barge sales, prices are put at the Tampa equivalent of $531/st FOB, which would be in line with the Gulf Coast truck market at $540-$590/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources said fall prepay offers were circulating for ammonia during the week at higher levels that the last prompt and fill business.
After the prior week’s brief ammonia fill offers at $565/st FOB in Illinois, CF reportedly came out on June 29 at $625/st FOB in Illinois and $630/st FOB in Indiana for October-December ammonia shipments. Koch was reportedly referenced at $655/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana for 4Q ammonia shipments.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prepay offers for fourth-quarter shipment were circulating at $625-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late June, with the low confirmed at Palmyra, Mo, and the high at Fort Dodge, Iowa. The prepay market in Nebraska was pegged at the $640/st FOB level for October-December shipment.
In the Southern Plains, sources reported 4Q ammonia prepay offers at $580/st FOB Pryor and Verdigris, Okla.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia was unchanged at $626/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at $172/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices were quoted at $615-$620/st FOB terminals in the Pacific Northwest, with new rail-DEL offers pegged as high as $675/st, depending on location. Aqua ammonia was quoted at $168/st FOB Kennewick, Wash.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$900-$950/mt DEL in late June, down from last report.
Black Sea:
Sources said pressure has been building for a major increase in ammonia prices, culminating in a deal this week at $550-$555/mt FOB that moved the price up more than $20/mt in one week.Sources said the 25,000 mt is bound for India and will most likely load at the end of this month.
Besides strong demand from India, sources said prices are being pushed up by strong demand in Asia. Shortages of ammonia from the Arab Gulf have forced Southeast Asian buyers to look far and wide for the ammonia they need.
The latest deal out of Yuzhnyy will most likely end up looking cheap in the near future, said sources. The prevailing market sentiment from traders is that prices will keep moving up.
Middle East:
In an unusual move, SABIC went to the global market to secure tons to cover the loss of its own production at the Ma’aden plant that went down in May.Sources said the Saudi company bought 25,000 mt from EBIC in Egypt for loading later in July. The reported price was put at $690/mt CFR, for a netback to Egypt of $650/mt FOB.
The tightness of the Arab Gulf market, which was made clear by the Saudi purchase, has meant no tons are available for spot sales. The producers are all reportedly doing the best they can just to fulfil their contracted orders. Some have speculated that the price paid by SABIC could become the new price promoted to buyers.
The bottom line in the Arab Gulf is that tonnage is limited. Pricing levels are constantly being quoted at ever-higher levels.
India:
The fact that an Indian buyer had to accept a cargo coming from Yuzhnyy exhibited just how tight the market is. Anyone wanting ammonia must step up and pay more.
Indian buyers are facing a serious problem. Most of the purchases are being done to support the Indian phosphate industry. The ever-rising ammonia price puts a major dent in the ability of the Indian producers to turn out a product that can be sold at a profit. Besides higher ammonia costs, phos rock and sulfur are also showing stronger prices.
The Indian government is desperate to get more DAP into its market, but the limits on how much producers can charge are running up against the high cost of their inputs.
Sources said Arab Gulf producers are looking at using the $690/mt CFR price SABIC paid as the basis for their export prices as spot tons become available. Such a move would be devastating to all buyers.
For now, Indian buyers keep looking for tons from whatever source is available. Reportedly, ammonia previously contracted is being covered at prices previously negotiated. The new tons, however, are fewer and more expensive.
Northwest Europe:
For now, the ammonia price remains in the $520s/mt C&F. However, sources said with the rising price in Yuzhnyy and the Caribbean, the Northwest Europe price should soon see a jump closer to $600/mt C&F.
A deal from a Baltic supplier reportedly was concluded for July loading at $540/mt FOB, reflecting a jump of more than a $100/m from June. This price, if it holds, would move the Antwerp price into the low-$600s/mt C&F.
The shifting and ever-rising market has producers thinking it might be time to go back to linking the Baltic price to the Black Sea price. In the past, this linkage showed Baltic port prices at a $10-20/mt premium over the Yuzhnyy price. If that arrangement is made, buyers will be immediately looking at $570-$575/mt FOB.
South Korea:
Ammonia imports in South Korea for January-May were up 9 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 594,000 mt from 544,000 mt during the same period last year.The main suppliers this year were Indonesia at 281,000 mt and Saudi Arabia at 140,000 mt.
May imports were up 44 percent, to 122,000 mt from 84,000 mt in May 2020. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia dominated the month with 52,000 mt and 32,000 mt, respectively. An interesting purchase, however, came in the 18,000 mt from Ukraine. South Korea has not purchased any ammonia from Ukraine since 2016.
Turkey:
January-May imports of ammonia in Turkey were down 31 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 389,000 mt from 566,000 mt during the same period last year.May imports were down 24 percent, to 76,000 mt from the 100,000 mt in May 2020.Russia has dominated as the primary source, sending 262,000 mt in January-May and 62,000 mt in May.
Thailand:
January-May ammonia imports in Thailand were up 27 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 178,000 mt from 140,000 mt during the same period last year. May imports were actually down 41 percent, to 25,000 mt from 42,000 mt in May 2020. At its current purchasing rate, Thailand will surpass the 350,000 mt it bought in 2020.