U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The October price stands at $665/mt CFR, though with skyrocketing inland prices and European outages, the price will be under pressure to move up in November.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Although sources speculated that the last actual ammonia spot business was likely concluded at the $925-$950/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt, producer postings reportedly jumped to $1,090-$1,100/st FOB for new offers during the week, with the high reported at Henry, Ill., Lima, Ohio, and Huntington, Ind.
The new Lima and Henry prices reflected a jump of $200-$210/st from the last postings of $890-$900/st FOB in early October. While not officially out with new published prices, CF was reportedly “taking bids” at similar levels at midweek.
“If you haven’t got yourself covered for fall, you are in a bad spot,” commented one regional source regarding fall ammonia needs. “Retail pricing continues to significantly lag replacement costs. Really, it is nowhere close.”
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to surge higher in the region. Koch on Oct. 12 raised its ammonia postings to $1,085/st FOB Beatrice, Neb.; $1,090/st FOB Greenwood, Neb., and Sergeant Bluff, Iowa; $1,100/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, Creston, and Washington; and $1,110/st FOB Marshalltown, Iowa. Those levels were up $200/st from the company’s Oct. 7 postings and up $300/st from late September pricing levels.
In the Northern Plains, ammonia was quoted in a broad range at $1,000-$1,125/st FOB for the week, with the high reflecting Koch’s new reference price FOB Vernon Center, Minn. Sources reported several producers either sold out in North Dakota or close to it by midweek.
In the Southern Plains, sources said ammonia pricing FOB Enid, Okla., firmed to $1,000/st FOB from the prior week’s $840-$850/st FOB level. The low end of the range was reported at $800/st FOB Pryor, Okla., early in the week, but sources speculated that this offer was quickly off the table.
California:
The ammonia market in California remained at $710/st DEL for anhydrous and $187/st FOB for aqua.
Pacific Northwest:
While the last official postings were reported at $900/st truck-DEL for anhydrous and $220/st FOB for aqua ammonia in the Pacific Northwest, sources reported a “very limited supply of new ammonia tons” available in the region. As a result, reports of spotty offers for rail-DEL ammonia surged to as high as $1,100-$1,156/st for November tons as the week progressed, with no pricing available on an FOB basis out of regional terminals.
There were reports as well of limited aqua prices “all over the map” as the week progressed, with new offers reportedly climbing to as high as $300/st FOB.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$1,300-$1,310/mt DEL for limited new offers, up from C$1,050-$1,090/mt DEL at last report.
Black Sea:
Sources reported no new spot business in the area, largely because all Ukraine plants are shut down due to the high price of natural gas. Even the Russian supply of ammonia into the area is limited. Sources said the only tons moving are those under long-term, formula-based deals. The lack of spot deals keeps the public price at $710/mt FOB.
Russian ammonia exports for January-August of 2021 totaled 2.89 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up just slightly from 2.88 million mt during the same period last year. August exports for 2021 were down 16.5 percent, to 266,000 mt from 318,000 mt in August 2020.
Turkey’s ammonia imports were also down. January-August 2021 imports were reported at 569,000 mt, down 34 percent from the 864,000 mt imported during the same period last year.August imports by Turkey for this year were reported at 68,000 mt, down 24 percent from 90,000 mt in August 2020.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf ammonia supplies remain tight. Sources said traders were looking all this week for an extra cargo or two, and always came up empty handed. The lack of any spot deals keeps the price at $620-$630/mt FOB. Sources said, however, that any discussion of prices is well beyond that level.
North Africa:
Ammonia and phosphate traders are keeping a close eye on Morocco. Reportedly, the stockpiles at the OCP phosphate operations are rapidly shrinking. However, the phosphate giant refuses to discuss its supply status publicly.
Sources said the easiest way to determine if the secretive OCP is stepping up its phosphate production is by looking to see if it is buying more inputs such as ammonia or sulfur. So far, said sources, the ammonia flow to Morocco has not changed dramatically. However, word is seeping out that this may soon change because of the reported drop in inventory.
New problems have apparently crept up in the Arzew facility in Algeria, cutting off production for an unspecified amount of time.
Northwest Europe:
The plant closures in Europe because of high natural gas prices continue to pinch the market. Sources said supplies are tight, leading to expectations of higher prices.
No new sales were closed this week to move the price from the $800-$810/mt C&F deals achieved earlier in the month. However, sources said it will only be a matter of time before the price moves up.
There has been no movement in Baltic pricing. Sources said some deals remain based on formulas and some on the lower price for October. Talks for November pricing reportedly will begin in the $720s/mt FOB and go up from there.
Southeast Asia:
Reportedly, Petronas sold a cargo of 13,000 mt to Trammo this week. Sources said this and other deals are being made, but everyone is keeping quiet about the pricing.
Indonesia is reportedly also short of ammonia and is looking for tons. Gresik is the latest company to let people know it wants to buy product. Sources said supplies are so tight, however, that it might be difficult for the company to get what it needs.