U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia climbed to $825/mt CFR for November, up 24 percent from October’s $665/mt CFR, exceeding expectations for many observers. The market followed higher international prices, as well as inland U.S. prices that had ratcheted up over the past six weeks.
In the meantime, the NOLA barge equivalent to Tampa would be $749/st FOB. However, as Green Markets went to press there was a report of a barge sale that topped the $1,000/st FOB mark.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Limited ammonia offers remained at $1,090-$1,100/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the higher numbers in Indiana and Ohio. There were unconfirmed reports of prompt pricing at the $925/st level FOB Courtright, Ont., for truck offers into the Michigan market in late October.
Western Cornbelt:
Wet conditions in late October put a stop to what one source described as heavy fall ammonia application in the Western Cornbelt on Oct. 22-24. “I suspect by mid-November, it’ll go gangbusters again,” he said.
The last confirmed ammonia prices remained at $1,085-$1,090/st FOB in Nebraska and $1,090-$1,110/st FOB in Iowa, depending on location.
Southern Plains:
Southern Plains sources reported ammonia pricing offers out of regional production points firmly at the $1,000/st FOB level at midweek.
South Central:
The ammonia market had reportedly firmed to a broad $780-$950/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers in late October, depending on location, with the high reported at Donaldsonville, La., Those levels were up dramatically from the $620-$650/st FOB range reported earlier in the month.
No current offers were on the table at El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Midway, Tenn.
Russia:
An ammonia leak at a liquid complex fertilizer unit of PhosAgro subsidiary JSC Apatit at Cherepovets early on Oct. 28 has not impacted the plant’s operations or production, according to the Russian fertilizer producer. A company statement, cited by Bloomberg, said a “short-term release of a small amount of ammonia” occurred at 7:12 a.m. local time.
One PhosAgro employee and two contractors were hospitalized. The company said the discharge of ammonia was “insignificant” and contained, and that there was no threat to the environment or residents of Cherepovets, according to the statement.
Citing PhosAgro, Interfax reported that a safety system was activated at the plant following the unplanned stoppage of equipment, which briefly discharged “a negligible” amount of ammonia through the safety vent.
Black Sea:
The high price of natural gas has forced most ammonia producers to shut down. Sources said the few tons that are moving are reserve tons that were booked long ago. Producers kept running to make sure they could cover outstanding contracts. What will happen after those agreements are fulfilled is anyone’s guess, according to sources.
The lack of any spot deals leaves the price at $710/mt FOB. The shortage of material is expected to last well into the first quarter of 2022. Sources speculated that prices of gas might come down by March 2022 and the diversion of gas to home heating will end, allowing more for the industrial sector. The hoped-for return to production in the area could ease pressure on buyers as more product potentially enters the market.
Middle East:
The market is rife with reports that a deal into Europe at $900-$910/mt C&F was done. Sources said the deal was done with material from the Arab Gulf for a netback of $750-$800/mt FOB.
The nebulous nature of the deal has left many wondering if it really happened. However, despite their doubts, industry sources talk about the deal as reality. Talk of pricing revolves around $800/mt FOB, with barely a nod to the possibility of a lower price.
Northwest Europe:
The rumored deal at $900-$910/mt C&F is discussed as a done deal, even though there is little to back up the claim. Sources said even if the deal was not done, the low $900s/mt C&F is where the price should be for now.
The market got some good news when the Russian president said Gazprom should renew shipping natural gas to Western Europe after the Russian reserves are fully covered. Sources estimated more gas should begin flowing westward after Nov. 4.
The announcement prompted lower prices for gas in Europe, leading ammonia producers to hope that they will soon be able to restart their operations. One trader said even if the lower priced gas is made available, the ammonia producers will be receiving material at least through December that was booked at higher prices but never delivered. A break in the high ammonia prices is expected in January.
Sources said Baltic producers and their buyers have yet to come to an agreement on November pricing. One trader said the market would be lucky if the new price was announced by Nov. 1.
India:
Buyers are getting their contracted tons, but at ever higher prices. Even with those rising prices, sources said the contract price is still lower than what the buyers would face if they were required to buy spot tons – provided any were available.
The last price paid on the spot market for India was reported at $670/mt FOB. With prices now hitting $800/mt FOB from the Arab Gulf, sources said the spot market into India would be closer to $850-$860/mt CFR, if product was available.
Thailand:
January-September ammonia imports were up 12 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 306,000 mt from 273,000 mt imported in the first nine months of 2020. Malaysia was the dominant supplier with 197,000 mt.
Third-quarter imports in 2021 were down 4 percent, to 96,000 mt from 100,000 mt imported during the same period last year. September 2021 imports were up 6 percent, to 36,000 mt from 34,000 mt imported in the same month of 2020. Australia and Malaysia covered nearly all the business this September at 18,000 mt and 16,000 mt, respectively.