U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price remained under pressure to move up in December. November was posted at $825/mt CFR.
In the meantime, however, Nutrien has now bought at least three barges at $1,030/st to meet the needs of is Geismar, La., plant, along with a 25,000 mt vessel from Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden, which is expected to load in December at $800/mt FOB and be delivered in the $925-$940/mt CFR range.
Despite Nutrien’s supply problems at Geismar, all other major ammonia plants in the Gulf area are believed to be in operation.
U.S. Imports:
July-September ammonia imports firmed 17.4 percent year-over-year, DOC data indicated, to 626,663 st from 533,963 st. September imports moved up 10.6 percent, to 202,352 st from the year-ago 182,947 st.
U.S. Exports:
September ammonia exports were noted at 44,064 st, down 7.5 percent from the year-ago 47,632 st. Exports totaled 135,635 st in July-September, falling 45.2 percent from the year-ago 247,610 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to firm in the Eastern Cornbelt, with reports of a busy fall application pace ahead of the precipitation.
The regional market was pegged at $1,150-$1,210/st FOB, up from the previous week’s $1,100-$1,200/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Huntington, Ind., and Lima, Ohio, and the high at Mount Vernon Ind., and Henderson, Ky. Sources said most Illinois terminals were firmly at the $1,200/st FOB level for new sales.
As Green Markets went to press, there were reports of new postings as high as $1,300/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing was up roughly $100/st in the Western Cornbelt, with new offers reported at $1,185-$1,200/st FOB regional terminals. In the Southern Plains, new pricing FOB Pryor, Okla., had reportedly firmed to $1,100/st FOB for prompt tons.
Northern Plains:
The last confirmed ammonia business was reported in the $1,210-$1,240/st FOB range in North Dakota and Minnesota, but sources said suppliers were either sold out or pricing only limited tons. New delivered offers were quoted in a broad range at $1,285-$1,370/st in the Northern Plains, depending on destination.
“There is still a good amount of interest,” said one regional ammonia contact. “I would say it is a better fall than we expected, but volumes aren’t necessarily above a ‘normal’ fall.”
Middle East:
Even though ammonia supplies remain tight, Ma’aden sold 25,000 mt to Nutrien at $800/mt FOB. The cargo is slated for a December loading for delivery to the U.S. Gulf.
Sources said additional deals are unlikely anytime soon due to the lack of supply for the spot market. Sales into Southeast Asia continue under existing contracts at prices that are way off the current market. Sources said the main buyers in Asia – Taiwan and South Korea – are still paying for product in the high-$600s/mt CFR.
Black Sea:
Material is so tight in the area that sources said even some buyers with contract tons are beginning to feel the pinch. Most Ukrainian suppliers have shut down because of high natural gas prices. A few have remained running just to cover existing contracts, but at an ever-increasing loss.
The lack of any spot tons makes pricing in the area difficult. Sources said if any spot tons were available, the price would be $800-$850/mt FOB, and most likely at the higher end of that range. Working the price back from Northwest Europe and the Baltic ports, the price would be closer to $810/mt FOB.
India:
The only ammonia flowing into India is under existing contracts, which are way off the market levels. Traders put the price into India under these contracts at $630-$650/mt CFR.
Even the last spot deal, which was done about a month ago at $670/mt CFR, is way off, sources said, pointing to the Arab Gulf price of $800/mt FOB. At that rate, the price into India would be closer to $850-$860/mt CFR. Sources stressed, however, that this is only an estimated price. No actual deals were done at this level into India.
North Africa:
Sources said Algerian plants are turning out product as quickly as they can. And just as quickly, the main buyers – consisting of Fertiglobe, Trammo, and Fertiberia – are snatching up the tons.
Phosphate giant OCP in Morocco reportedly is operating with only a few days of ammonia reserves left. Sources put the reserves at less than 50,000 mt against a daily use of 5,000-6,000 mt. One reason for the low quantities, sources said, is that bad weather is hindering vessels transiting the Bosporus Straits.
Even during good weather, the Turkish authorities limit passage to only one ammonia carrier at a time, and only during daylight hours. With the waning number of daylight hours as winter approaches, the vessel lineup has had to be adjusted. Sources said until the bad weather caused delays, however, vessels were transiting without major issues.
Reportedly, OCP is willing and able to buy ammonia from anyone offering, almost at any price being offered. No one is offering, however, leaving the company dependent on only its contract tons, said one trader.
Northwest Europe:
No new spot business in the area occurred to move prices off the $905-$907/mt C&F mark. Helping keep the market steady was the large jump in the Baltic price for November to $820-$822/mt FOB and the lack of any spot tons out of the Black Sea. Once either of these locations shift, sources said the Northwest Europe price will move accordingly.
Bets are being laid that, come December, the Baltic price will rise even as demand for product remains strong. If Morocco comes in strong for ammonia, it could also affect how the European price moves. Sources said it would not be unlikely to see $950/mt C&F in December.
Southeast Asia:
Major buyers Taiwan and South Korea are currently comfortable with tons coming in under existing contracts at prices well below current market levels.
As reported earlier, South Korea imported a total of 1.1 million mt of ammonia during the January-September period this year. Indonesia supplied 500,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia at 140,000 mt and Trinidad at 134,000 mt. Of note to some in the industry was that South Korea did not import any Trinidad material in 2020. One trader said the fact that the country had to go to the Caribbean supplier showed how tight product has been this year.
Taiwan purchases followed a similar pattern as South Korea. Total imports for the January-August period showed Indonesia supplying 235,000 mt and Saudi Arabia sending 87,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. The third major supplier to Taiwan was Iran with 73,000 mt, representing 16 percent of the total import market.
Brazil:
Imports of ammonia continued at a high pace. January-October imports were up 41 percent from the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 477,000 mt. October 2021 imports were up 38 percent, to 33,000 mt from 24,000 mt.
Trinidad remains the nearly sole supplier of ammonia to Brazil. Of the 477,000 mt imported during the first 10 months of the year, Trinidad supplied 457,000 mt.