U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa for November continued to be called $825/mt CFR, with expectations for a higher number for December due to strong international, inland, and NOLA prices. NOLA barges continue to be pegged at $1,030/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported brisk fall ammonia applications in the region at mid-month, with supply outages confirmed at multiple terminals. One source predicted that fall ammonia volumes will be “hugely” up from normal rates thanks to a generally favorable forecast for the rest of the month, with availability of tons being the limiting factor.
Ammonia pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed again in mid-November, with new prompt prices quoted in the $1,280-$1,350/st FOB range out of regional terminals, up significantly from the prior week’s $1,150-$1,210/st FOB. Sources reported the low end of the range at East Dubuque, Ill., and the high at Huntington, Ind.
Most Illinois ammonia terminals that actually had prompt tons available during the week were firmly at the $1,300/st FOB level, sources said, with the Lima, Ohio, market also pegged at $1,300/st FOB, up from $1,200/st FOB the previous week.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources reported a heavy fall ammonia application pace during the week. The prompt market firmed to $1,280-$1,350/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $1,185-$1,200/st FOB range, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high at Wever, Iowa, and other Iowa terminal locations.
Southern Plains:
Some brisk fall ammonia application was taking place in some areas of the Southern Plains in mid-November. Sources quoted the last prompt pricing at $1,125-$1,150/st FOB Oklahoma production points for truck tons, but several locations had reportedly pulled offers and were no longer quoting prompt tons at midweek.
South Central:
The ammonia market remained at $850-$950/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers in mid-November, depending on location, with the high reported at Donaldsonville, La., and the low at Beaumont, Texas. No current offers were on the table at El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Midway, Tenn.
Black Sea:
Rumors are circulating that Rossosh and Trammo are working on a deal, but what and when are still unclear. Sources reported Trammo has quietly added a couple of as-yet unnamed vessels for 10,000 mt each in its line up out of Yuzhnyy.
Sources reported a deal did go through to Pekim in Turkey at $925/mt CFR. That equates to a netback to Yuzhnyy of $890-$895/mt FOB.
Ammonia production remains affected by the high price of natural gas. Sources said there is enough to run the plants, but the price of the gas outstrips what producers are able to get for their ammonia. For now, the emphasis remains covering contracts and selling any small volumes of excess tons at ever-higher prices.
India:
The main activity remains purchases under long-term contracts. However, sources said buyers were scouting out tons from any potential seller.
Sources said buyers are looking to secure tons from Malaysia at $700/mt FOB, a level Trammo earned earlier. The last spot deal into India was about a month ago at $670/mt CFR. Contract prices are below that. The query to the Southeast Asia supplier was a further indication that Indian buyers are slowly but surely returning to the market with the full knowledge that each deal will be more expensive than the previous one.
Middle East:
Reports are coming in that SABIC continues to talk with potential buyers for small cargoes. Reportedly, a deal is ready at $900/mt FOB, but with the buyer unknown.
The rising ammonia prices in the Arab Gulf continue to concern customers in Southeast Asia. Buyers in Taiwan and South Korea, in particular, are said to be worried that once their existing contracts with the Arab Gulf producers expire, the new prices will severely hit their industries.
Sources said the contract price currently reflects a netback to the Arab Gulf around $650/mt FOB or a bit higher, well below the current spot price and any potential new contract price.
Northwest Europe:
Buyers are bracing for higher prices in December. The $905-$907/mt C&F Northwest Europe price reflects the current Baltic price in the low-$820/mt FOB. Sources said once talks for December pricing start, the Baltic price should see a dramatic increase. Once concluded, the new Baltic price will push up the Northwest Europe price.
The hope for renewed production because of lower gas prices was dashed after Germany suspended approval for the Nord Stream gas pipeline. An earlier decision that the pipeline would be approved for operation led Russian leader Vladimir Putin to say more natural gas would be sent into Europe by mid-November, leading to lower gas prices in Europe.
However, the latest decision by German regulators has once again moved up gas prices and prompted European ammonia producers to re-assess their earlier decision to begin opening up again.
North Africa:
Sources said OCP in Morocco continues to have reserves of about 50,000 mt of ammonia on hand, which gives them about 10 days of product at their current production rate.
Usually, the phosphate giant keeps more stock on hand. Sources said some of the issue could be delays getting its product from the Black Sea, however. Reportedly, some of their vessels are being delayed passing through the Turkish straits.
They may also have some storage issues. They are reportedly reworking one of their tanks, with no information on when that work will be concluded.
South Korea:
Ammonia imports for January-October 2021 were reported at 1.2 million mt, up 13 percent from 1 million mt during the same period in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main supplier was Indonesia at 516,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia at 166,000 mt, and Trinidad at 134,000 mt. The Saudi tonnage so far this year is down about 54 percent from the first 10 months of 2020.
October imports were down to their lowest amount for the year at 42,000 mt. This amount is also down about 56 percent from the 95,000 mt imported in October 2020.