U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for December was reported at $990/mt CFR, up 20 percent from November’s $825/mt CFR. Sources had expected an increase citing recent increases in international, inland, and NOLA pricing.
In the meantime, the latest import to the other side of the U.S. Gulf was put at $925-$940/mt CFR, although any new trades would be hard-pressed not to match Tampa’s $990/mt CFR. However, the last done NOLA barges were recorded at $1,030/st, easily surpassing the new Tampa equivalent of $898/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported a brisk ammonia application pace in the region in late November. “Supply is tight due to strong application, and the weather looks favorable for ammonia to continue to be applied for at least a week,” said one regional contact.
Between supply outages and very tight truck availability, ammonia prices remained firm in the region. Limited sales were reported at the $1,285/st level FOB Mount Vernon, Ind., as the week began, but most CF terminals that were offering tons were firmly at the $1,300/st FOB mark during the week, with most Koch terminals reported at $1,350/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana. The posted price at Lima, Ohio, remained at $1,300/st FOB at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
A blistering pace for fall ammonia application resulted in supply outages across the region during the week.
Sources quoted the low end of the ammonia range at $1,300/st FOB Garner, Iowa, for “a few loads” early in the week, but tons were reportedly out at Washington, Fort Dodge, and Marshalltown during the week. Nebraska terminals were reported in the $1,300-$1,325/st FOB range where tons were available, while the high end of the regional range remained at $1,350/st FOB Wever, Iowa, although sources said no product was being offered at that location.
In the Southern Plains, the last prices offered for prompt truck tons were quoted at $1,200/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., and $1,275/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan.
California:
The ammonia market in California remained at $710/st DEL for anhydrous and $187/st FOB for aqua ammonia. Sources said prices are slated to increase on Dec. 1, however, to $1,085/st DEL for anhydrous and $281/st FOB for aqua.
Pacific Northwest:
The anhydrous ammonia market was pegged at a solid $1,170/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest for the remaining fall application season, up from $1,100-$1,120/st at last report, with sources describing improved availability in late November. The last aqua ammonia price was referenced at $285/st FOB in the region, up $15/st from early November.
Western Canada:
The last ammonia prices in Western Canada were quoted firmly in the C$1,700-$1,850/mt DEL range for limited offers, depending on supplier, location, and time of shipment.
Black Sea:
In the absence of any spot tons coming out of Yuzhnyy, deals out of North Africa to European buyers are being used by international traders to triangulate the Yuzhnyy equivalent price. In some cases, the price calculations can lead to some wild variations.
Last week, sources reported a deal involving a few thousand tons from the Arab Gulf to a Turkish buyer. Working back the cost of transportation and other costs, the estimated price to Yuzhnyy was reported in the $890s/mt FOB. Industry sources used that price as the basis for discussions if any spot tons could be found from the Black Sea port.
On the heels of the Turkey deal, sources reported a sale of North African ammonia to a buyer in Poland that showed a Yuzhnyy equivalent price at $800-$810/mt FOB. This is now the level where people are discussing prices for any potential spot deals.
Sources said the lower price is more in line with the price in the Baltics in the low-$820s/mt FOB. The lack of any spot tons is expected to continue to lead industry watchers to calculate equivalent prices.
The material that is flowing out of Yuzhnyy remains Russian and tons ordered under contracts. So far, said sources, the contracted material is moving out without hindrance.
Middle East:
Sources said the buyer of tons from SABIC last week remains unknown. However, most seem convinced that the deal did happen and that it was settled at $900/mt FOB.
Iranian ammonia exports for January-October were reported at 473,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is down 14 percent from the same period in 2020, which was reported at 550,000 mt. The main buyer so far this year has been India at 321,000 mt. October 2021 exports were down about 41 percent, to 42,000 mt from 25,000 mt in October 2020.
India:
Rumors of an ammonia sale from Malaysia to India could not be confirmed. Sources previously said the Malaysians were looking at $700/mt FOB for the deal.
The last spot deal into India was more than a month ago at a price of $670/mt CFR. Contracted tons of ammonia continue to flow into the country at prices below the last spot price. Sources said new prices will be discussed in the first quarter of 2022 as the Indian fiscal year ends.
Northwest Europe:
Talks have not yet begun for a December Baltic ammonia price. However, sources said the large leap in the Tampa price to $990/mt CFR has given the producers an opportunity to argue for a similar leap in prices. If accomplished, the Northwest European price will move off its current $905-$907/mt C&F level.
Sources said the continued high price and limited quantity of natural gas is also pushing up pricing expectations. One trader said the cost of production of ammonia is now around $1,000/mt for European producers. The higher costs to produce, coupled with steady demand, is providing a constant upward push on prices.
Source reported that Baltic producers will most likely be pushing for at least $900/mt FOB. If successful, the Northwest Europe price will come close to, if not hitting, the $1,000/mt C&F mark.