U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for December continued at $990/mt CFR.
While Yara’s bringing back European ammonia production may improve the supply situation, it may not be soon enough to thwart near-term price increases in the Tampa or international market. Nutrien has sold a Trinidad cargo for early January that would equate to $1,100 mt CFR if it were to go to Tampa.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report some fall movement of ammonia in the region, although the pace was rapidly slowing down. The prompt ammonia market was quoted at $1,350-$1,375/st FOB regional terminals, with the low reported in Illinois and the high FOB Lima, Ohio.
A number of spring prepay ammonia offers were also circulating during the week. CF reportedly came out at $1,375/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana, with Koch at that same level FOB Henry, Ill. Nutrien was also offering spring prepay at $1,375/st FOB Lima, but sources said they expected the next round of offers to be out shortly at higher levels.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia applications continued at a brisk pace in Missouri during the week, although an incoming weather system was expected to put a lid on the fall season. Some sources speculated that the heavy fall ammonia volumes have cut into expected spring demand by as much as 50 percent.
Prompt ammonia offers were quoted in the $1,350-$1,450/st FOB range at midweek, with the high reported at Wever, Iowa.
Koch was out with a spring prepay ammonia program on Dec. 7 at $1,355-$1,365/st FOB in Nebraska and $1,370-$1,385/st in Iowa and Minnesota, before boosting those offers by another $10/st on Dec. 8. The company’s second round of prepay pricing included $1,365/st FOB Beatrice, Neb.; $1,375/st FOB Greenwood, Neb.; $1,380/st FOB Sergeant Bluff, Iowa; $1,385/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, and Washington; $1,390/st FOB Murdock and Vernon Center, N.D.; and $1,395/st FOB Marshalltown, Iowa.
Southern Plains:
Sources said fall fertilizer application was winding down in the Southern Plains, although a fair amount of ammonia was still moving to the field in central Texas. “Harvest is done, and cotton stalks are shredded and sprayed,” said one Texas contact at midweek. “Growers are placing seed orders for cotton, wheat, and corn, still many with a wait-and-see approach.”
Ammonia was quoted at a firm $1,300/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan., for the last prompt price, with no prompt or prepay offers reportedly on the table at Verdigris, Okla., or Pryor, Okla. Prompt truck tons at Beaumont, Texas, were pegged at the $1,050/st FOB level.
South Central:
The ammonia market had reportedly firmed to $950-$1,050/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers, depending on location, with the high reported at Beaumont, Texas. There were reports as well of limited truckloads moving out of Midway, Tenn., at the $950/st FOB level in early December.
Black Sea:
There are reports that agreements have been reached that will once again allow some ammonia to be pumped to the port of Yuzhnyy. This could mean some extra tons may begin to appear in January. In the meantime, sources said only limited contract tons are moving out.
A sale out of Turkey was reported at $990/mt FOB. Sources said the deal was not confirmed, but would lead to an equivalent price in Yuzhnyy of $980/mt FOB. This level, said traders, fits in with the current pricing out of the Baltic and with market expectations.
Northwest Europe:
A reported sale of 10,000 mt from Trinidad to Europe was pegged at $1,060/mt FOB. That would lead to a European price of $1,110-$1,120/mt C&F. This price also fits with a reported Baltic price of $1,015/mt FOB earlier in the week.
Sources said even with the European plants running, the price of ammonia is expected to remain high. The tightness of the market, combined with the continued high natural gas price, gives no room for a price decline in the region.
Middle East:
Sources reported that all the plants in the Arab Gulf are now running. Even with the facilities operating, sources said no spot material is expected to be seen until late January 2022.
For now, operations are working to make sure all existing contracts are covered before offering tons on the spot market. The price remains around $900/mt FOB.
India:
The lack of any spot business keeps the posted Indian price well below what most consider market levels. The contract price reportedly is around $670/mt CFR at a time when major suppliers are at $900/mt FOB and up.
Sources said buyers are solely taking contract tons and avoiding any high-priced spot material. Traders said this puts India outside the realm of the rest of the ammonia market. One trader noted, however, that some spot deals may have to start taking place soon.
India has been buying a lot of phos acid for DAP production, traders said, but the ammonia intake has been lower than normal based on the acid purchases. Soon, perhaps in January, sources expect to see some spot buying interest from India.
One trader said January would also be when some spot material might become available from the Arab Gulf as producers catch up with their contract requirements and supplies begin to edge toward a surplus.
Southeast Asia:
There is steady business in the area, but all of it under existing contracts. No new spot deals were reported.Sources said the increased production out of the Arab Gulf may soon be met by stepped up output from the PAU facility in Indonesia. The joint-venture operation is said to be once again operating and should be at full production in January.
Brazil:
Imports of ammonia for January-November were reported at 504,000 mt, up 40 percent from the 361,000 mt imported during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main supplier to Brazil remained Trinidad with 484,000 mt.
November 2021 imports were reported at 27,000 mt, up from the 23,000 mt in November 2021. All the tonnage came from Trinidad.