U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for January closed at $1,115/mt CFR, up from December’s $990/mt CFR. Sources said international supplies have remained tight despite Yara’s late 2021 announcement that it was bringing back up its plants in Europe that had been idled by high natural gas prices.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed in Illinois for the last prompt offers and the high in Ohio for both prompt and spring prepay pricing.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report spring prepay ammonia offers in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower numbers in Nebraska and the high in Iowa. A few prompt offers continued to be reported at the $1,350/st FOB level on a spot basis in the region.
Northern Plains:
Sources described the Northern Plains ammonia market as relatively quiet in early January, with prompt and/or prepay pricing pegged at $1,450/st FOB and $1,550/st DEL in North Dakota for the last reported business.
Northwest Europe:
Suppliers from the Baltic ports have fixed January prices at $1,140/mt FOB, which represents a serious jump from December 2021. The move means Northwest Europe pricing is now pegged at $1,180-1,250/mt C&F.
Prices are not expected to shift too much after reports that European gas prices have come off. One source said the lower price seems to be connected to the multitude of vessels arriving with gas from the U.S. Some of those vessels, are reportedly diverted from Brazil and other buyers because of the better netback.
Sources said once the price moves up in the places currently being denied product, the gas will flow back and leave European buyers scrambling for tons at higher prices again.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers remain fully booked into February, leaving no material for spot deals.
Some of the extra demand pressuring the Arab producers seems to be coming from Indian buyers who used to accept Iranian material. Sources said these buyers are facing issues with their banks about the arrangement and are now looking to other sources, thus putting pressure on the Arab producers to supply more ammonia to India.
India:
All buying has been based on long-term contracts. However, some buyers are now being forced to look for some spot tons because of problems getting financing for their Iranian purchases.Reportedly, Indian buyers are looking at offers of $1,000/mt CFR against contract prices that were closer to $800/mt CFR.
The lack of any loose material in the market makes identifying a new spot price difficult. One observer noted that deals made to replace the Iranian material might give the market its first look at a non-contract price in a long time.
Black Sea:
No new spot deals were reported out of Yuzhnyy. Sources said the formula-based deals that are flowing out of the area are now pegged at $1,100/mt FOB. A true spot deal, said one observer, would be much higher.
Indonesia:
The November 2021 export numbers were released this week by the Indonesian government. January-November exports were reported at 1.6 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 9 percent from the 1.5 million mt exported during the same period in 2020. The main buyers were South Korea, China, and Taiwan with a total of 1.02 million mt among the three.
November 2021 exports were reported at 98,000 mt, down 52 percent from the 204,000 mt exported in November 2020. The November 2021 exports were the lowest for the year.