U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for January closed at $1,115/mt CFR, up from December’s $990/mt CFR. While some sources said it is too early to predict the price for February, others suggest the upward price trend will continue as the international market remains pressured by volatile European gas prices this winter.
U.S. Imports:
Ammonia imports firmed 18.1 percent for the July-November period, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, to 1.11 million st from the prior-year 940,570 st. Imports were up 19.9 percent in November, to 254,775 st from 212,425 st.
U.S. Exports:
Ammonia exports softened 35.3 percent in July-November, to 180,417 st from the year-ago 278,720 st. Exports totaled 6,038 st for November, a 53.3 percent slide from the 12,936 st recorded in November 2020.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was unchanged at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed on a spot basis in Illinois for January-February tons and the high in Ohio for both prompt and spring prepay pricing.
Sources said CF was generally at $1,350/st FOB for January-February ammonia and $1,375-$1,380/st FOB for spring prepay in the Illinois market.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report ammonia pricing in the $1,350-$1,395/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported for limited January-February offers. Most of the spring prepay business remained in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the region, depending on location and supplier.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia was quoted at $1,250/st FOB Verdigris and Pryor, Okla., and $1,275/st FOB Enid, Okla., for 1Q and spring tons. Prompt truck tons at Beaumont, Texas, remained at the $1,050/st FOB level.
South Central:
The ammonia market was quoted at $1,000-$1,050/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers, depending on location. No prompt or forward prices were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., Midway, Tenn., or Cherokee, Ala.
Black Sea:
Sources said opportunities for spot deals are limited because of the lack of extra ammonia in the area. Contracts are filled as quickly as possible, said one trader.
At this point, sources said the difference between would-be spot ton pricing and the current formula-based pricing is negligible. The current market price is pegged at $1,100/mt FOB, based on formula deals. One trader said if any new deals were to be discussed, the price could move up to $1,140/mt FOB. However, no deals have been done at that level.
Industry watchers said the price may have reached its peak. Discussion of sales at $1,140/mt FOB appear to have stalled out. While some have argued that price is attainable, others claim it is too high, even as demand remains strong.
India:
Buyers continue to search for ammonia and are reportedly willing to go to $1,000/mt CFR, but sellers apparently want more. No deals have been concluded.
Reportedly, some deals are under serious discussion that would move the price to just under $1,000/mt CFR, with a netback to the Arab Gulf of about $900/mt FOB. Sources said this might be possible because of other talks taking place in the Gulf that touch at that level.
Middle East:
There are reports of a small cargo of about 15,000 mt available from the area. The price buyers and sellers seem to be circling around is $900/mt FOB.
If sellers get their way, the deal would be just a bit above the current $900/mt FOB price for the region. If buyers win out, sources said the market would see the first major softening of prices in the area in a while.
Northwest Europe:
Sources reported no movement on the $1,180-$1,250/mt C&F ammonia price range for the area. Reportedly, the price should remain stable through the month.
The Baltic price is expected to hold steady at $1,140/mt FOB though January. The influx of natural gas from the Western Hemisphere is helping hold down shortages that would have occurred without the cargoes.
Discussions for February prices are not expected to begin until the last week of the month as buyers push for a gradual rollback in pricing and sellers point to tight supplies to justify a modest increase.
Russia:
TogliattiAzot this week reported that its ammonia production last year was 3.051 million mt, a small 0.3 percent uptick from the 3.041 million mt produced in 2020.
North Africa:
Libya closed a 15,000 mt selling tender this week. No details were made public by the time Green Markets went to press.
Reportedly, Trammo has been successful in a majority of the previous Libya tenders. Sources said they fully expect Trammo to also take these tons. The most likely destination will be Spain, said one trader.
Southeast Asia:
The market is in a bit of a confused state.A vessel that was slated to stop in China from the Arab Gulf is no longer scheduled to do so. The new destination is not clear, said a trader.
At the same time, supplies from Indonesia are uncertain. Kaltim output is up in the air. Sources said rumors are circulating that some tons might be available soon for export, while others said the producer has nothing for sale.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports for 2021 were up 40.5 percent from 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 534,000 mt from 380,000 mt in the previous year. Trinidad was responsible for supplying 96 percent of the 2021 ammonia at 514,000 mt.
December 2021 imports were up dramatically, at 30,000 mt from December 2020 imports of 19,000 mt. Trinidad was the sole recorded supplier for that month.