U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia business for March remains at $1,135/mt CFR. However, with all the news in the ammonia market, most sources were expecting higher prices for April amid idled capacity in Europe, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Waggaman, La., plant being offline, and a delay in production at the new Ma’aden plant until the third quarter.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market firmed to $1,375-$1,475/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Illinois and the high at Lima, Ohio, for prompt or prepay tons. The new Lima posting reflects a $75/st increase from the previous week.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing for spring tons was pegged at $1,365-$1,395/st FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location. The last offers FOB production points in Oklahoma ranged from $1,250-$1,305/st FOB, with the high reported at Pryor, Okla.
Northern Plains:
The ammonia market remained at $1,450/st FOB Velva, N.D., and other regional terminals, with the last spring pricing offers pegged at the $1,550/st DEL level in North Dakota. Sources reported no tons or pricing available at Leal, N.D.
Northwest Europe:
Rising gas prices and limited availability of ammonia is driving up prices in the region. Sources said many plants are shutting down due to high natural gas prices, leaving the major influence to come from North Africa. Recent prices cited by sources put the market at $1,200-$1,300/mt C&F.
One source said the closing of Yara’s ammonia plants in France and Italy could take 1 million mt/y out of the market. Other plant closures are expected to follow.
Plants that do not close down reportedly will be looking closely at the price of downstream products, such as ammonium nitrate. If buyers accept the higher prices expected, the ammonia producers will keep turning out their product. If, however, there is pushback on the new prices, more plants are expected to close.
There is still some uncertainty about the situation in the Baltic. Russia moves out much of its ammonia through ports in Finland or the Baltic states. Sanctions on Russian products and an unwillingness of the Baltic states to allow Russian and Belarus product to pass through their countries are causing a shortage of ammonia and some confusion as to what product is subject to sanctions.
Despite the complex situation, prices remain steady for March at $1,135/mt FOB, as earlier negotiated for this month.
The Gas Cobia continues to remain just outside Ventspils. Sources initially said the ship is laden with Russian ammonia, and the sanctions imposed on Russia makes handing the material difficult. This week, however, a new idea has come forward. Sources suggested the ammonia onboard was cleared for global export and the holder of the product is waiting for prices to keep getting higher. Then, at an opportune time, a sale will be made.
Black Sea:
With all the Ukraine ports closed, sources said it is impossible to test the market. Traders also noted that even if any of the ports were operating, as long as the war against Ukraine is waging, ship owners will be reluctant to send their vessels into a war zone.
With Black Sea material nonexistent, buyers from Turkey and Morocco are looking for alternate sources of ammonia. Last year Turkey imported 510,000 mt of ammonia from Russia. Morocco took another 558,000 mt in the same period. Few believe these quantities can be recovered from other sources, leaving buyers to scramble for whatever tons they can find.
Turkish imports of ammonia for January 2022 were reported at 83,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is an 11 percent increase from imports of 75,000 mt in January 2021. Russia accounted for 53 percent of all of Turkey’s ammonia imports in January. Bahrain came in second with 22,500 mt, followed by Egypt with 15,000 mt.
Middle East:
Despite claims of having nothing available for a spot sale, Ma’aden reportedly sold 25,000 mt at $1,100/mt FOB, sources said.
The sale was the first in a long time that was not tied to a specific long-term deal. There is no word if Ma’aden delayed a shipment to another client to accommodate this deal, or if a buyer had to back out of taking a cargo. Either way, the sale dramatically moved the needle on pricing.
Sources said they were hoping talks would keep moving forward between Iran and the U.S. on re-instating the nuclear deal. If the deal gets done, sources speculated that more ammonia would be made available on the open market. However, news reports indicated the talks have reached a snag.
Even without the lifting of U.S. sanctions, a number of buyers take tons from Iran. Sources said Turkey now has a vessel heading its way from Iran.
The sanctions, however, seem to have had an impact on Iranian exports. January exports were reported at only 20,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. This is down almost 70 percent from the 64,000 mt exported in January 2021. The main buyer of the January 2022 material was India, taking 18,500 mt.
Sales from North African suppliers continue without any hiccups. There are reports of sales out of Libya and Algeria at $1,200/mt FOB. Morocco and Turkey seem to be the most aggressive buyers in the region. Both are looking to replace tons lost because of the war in Ukraine.
India:
Sources reported a couple of small sales into India. One deal earlier in the week was pegged at $1,060/mt CFR. The second deal was later in the week at $1,100/mt CFR. Talks for additional tons are now centering on $1,200/mt CFR.
Southeast Asia:
Ammonia prices are slowly edging up, but not at the same pace as west of the Suez Canal. Sources pointed out that the region is mostly self-sufficient, walking a fine line between regional demand and regional production.
The balance in the region could be affected, however, if a major buyer such as OCP/Morocco comes into the area looking for product to replace its lost Russian tons from the Black Sea. While no such overtures have been reported, sources said with the right freight rate and a rising cost for the product, it will not be long before OCP and possibly Turkey come knocking on producers’ doors in the area.
Thai imports of ammonia were down 76 percent in January, to 8,400 mt from 35,000 mt in January 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor. The imports were almost evenly split between Malaysia at 4,200 mt and Indonesia at 4,100 mt.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports for the first two months of the year were reported at 41,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, with all the tons from Trinidad. This is a 61 percent drop from the 105,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021.February imports this year were at 17,000 mt, down from 52,000 mt in February 2021.