U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for April was confirmed at $1,625/mt CFR, up some $490/mt CFR from the $1,135/mt CFR recorded in March and February. Sources had been predicting a significant increase based on current production outages.
Nutrien’s earlier announcement that it concluded a new sale of 8,000 mt of ammonia to a customer in Northwest Europe from Trinidad at a price of US$1,650/mt, up $200/mt from the last done for Western Europe, was expected to grease the wheels for Tampa’s movement.
Eastern Cornbelt:
A round of rain and cooler temperatures in late March slowed preplant ammonia movement in the Eastern Cornbelt, which had started to pick up during the prior week. On the pricing front, sources said Koch reduced its terminal price in Illinois and Indiana to $1,450/st FOB, down from the prior week’s $1,550/st FOB reference, to match CF’s level. The reference price FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at the $1,475/st level in late March.
“For all practical purposes, this is a ‘call for availability and price’ market,” said one regional contact about the late March ammonia market.
Western Cornbelt:
Wind and rain put a damper on preplant ammonia activity in many parts of the Western Cornbelt during the week. The ammonia market reportedly remained at $1,375-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in late March, with the low confirmed at Beatrice, Neb., and the high at Palmyra, Mo.
New ammonia sales in North Dakota were confirmed at $1,480-$1,500/st FOB at midweek, with the posted price remaining at $1,450/st FOB Velva, N.D.
California:
The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $1,220/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia pricing reported in the $315-$325/st FOB range in the state. Sources said they expect another increase in the near term, but no new prices have been announced yet.
Pacific Northwest:
New spring posted prices for ammonia in the Pacific Northwest reportedly jumped to $1,650/st DEL from some suppliers, up from the last reported $1,400-$1,450/st range. The aqua ammonia market was pegged at $405/st FOB in the region for spring tons, up $50/st from last report.
Western Canada:
Spring ammonia offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$2,230-$2,250/mt DEL in late March, up from the last reported range of C$2,000-$2,100/mt.
Black Sea:
With the closure of the Ukrainian ports because of Russian attacks, sources said vessels that were once headed for Yuzhnyy are now being diverted to other locations. The shutdown of these ports has also effectively closed any activity in the area to set prices.
Traders noted that southern ports in Bulgaria and Turkey continue to operate, but primarily for imports. Bulgarian ammonia production, for example, has long been mostly for domestic use. With the removal of Russian ammonia from the market, the need for homemade ammonia got even more acute in Bulgaria.
India:
Sources said no new deals were done this week. Buyers – mostly DAP producers – are said to be holding off on new purchases until the national policy on subsidies and the maximum retail price are worked out.
The rising cost of inputs is making DAP production more expensive. Producers want to be sure they are covered. Sources said clarity on these issues will most likely not come until after the new fiscal year starts on April 1.
Middle East:
Sources are now calling the ammonia market at $1,230-$1,245/mt FOB out of the Arab Gulf. The range came as sources ran their own calculations about the netback from last week’s SABIC/OCP deal. SABIC confirmed the lower price.
Availability remains tight as producers move to cover existing contracts. Sources said there were rumors of SABIC shopping around a cargo, however.
Northwest Europe:
Sources reported new deals moved the price to $1,630-$1,650/mt C&F. A small deal was reportedly done out of Poland at $1,600/mt FOB. Another deal with Acron reportedly settled at $1,500/mt FOB. The Acron price, said sources, represents a discount for Russian product. Acron was not on the sanction lists and now seems able to export product.
A slight dip in natural gas prices may allow some producers to keep operating. Sources put the production cost of 1 mt of ammonia at $1,000/mt.
While no new deals were reported out of Baltic ports, sources said at least three vessels are heading for Baltic loading facilities. Whether there will be Russian material at the ports when the ships arrive, whether the ships will be allowed to load if the product is available, and who will buy the ammonia are all questions still unanswered.
The Gas Cobia, which loaded Russian material just as the sanctions were imposed a little less than a month ago, is now heading to Turkey. For several days it lingered near Ventspils while the owners of the ammonia reportedly searched for a buyer willing to risk going against the American and European Union sanctions against Russia.
Southeast Asia:
Producers are said to be sold out through April, and May availability is reportedly limited. Industrial buyers in South Korea and Taiwan are easing back on their demands for product, sources said. Cutbacks in orders from factories are causing limits on both the production and need for ammonia.
Chinese imports of ammonia continue to show a decline. Sources said a combination of reduced demand by phosphate producers and increased internal trade in ammonia led to the drop.
January-February 2022 imports were reported at 62,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount reflects a 71 percent drop from the same period of 2021, which came in at 204,000 mt. February imports were pegged at 16,000 mt – all from Indonesia, which represented a drop of 66 percent from the February 2021 imports of 47,000 mt.