U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
While still early in the monthly Tampa ammonia cycle, sources expressed neutral-to-firm sentiment in the forward market, citing ongoing international uncertainty balanced against limited short-term demand. Tampa ammonia for April was reported at $1,625/mt CFR, up 43 percent from the $1,135/mt CFR recorded in March and February.
Eastern Cornbelt:
There were reports at midweek of spotty preplant ammonia applications happening in southern Illinois and Indiana, as well as in parts of Kentucky, but the pace overall was described as quiet.
While Koch reportedly remained at the $1,450/st FOB level out of ammonia terminals in Illinois and Indiana, sources said CF boosted its price to $1,500/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, although no new sales were confirmed at the higher numbers. The market FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at $1,475/st FOB in early April.
Western Cornbelt:
Preplant ammonia application was underway in eastern Nebraska and northwestern Missouri during the week, although wet weather limited activity.
The ammonia market had reportedly firmed to $1,400-$1,450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location. The high was confirmed at Garner, Iowa, and Palmyra, Mo., reflecting a $50/st increase from last report. The Beatrice, Neb., market was pegged at the $1,425/st FOB level, also up $50/st.
Southern Plains:
The ammonia market ranged from $1,250-$1275/st FOB Enid and Woodward, Okla., up to $1,325-$1,350/st FOB Pryor and Verdigris, Okla. The last truck business FOB Beaumont, Texas, reportedly jumped to the $1,500/st level.
South Central:
Sources reported truck offers for anhydrous ammonia at $1,300/st FOB Donaldsonville, La., and $1,400/st FOB Cherokee, Ala. No prices were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., Waggaman, La., or Midway, Tenn., in early April.
Black Sea:
With the Ukrainian ports still closed, there are no shipments of ammonia flowing from the area. Sources said this lack of a market makes identifying prices difficult.
Turkey imported 131,000 mt of ammonia in the first two months of this year, according to Trade Data Monitor. This is marginally up from the 134,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. February 2022 imports were reported at 48,000 mt, down 19 percent from the 60,000 mt imported in February 2021. Russian ammonia purchased and shipped before sanctions were imposed accounted for 42,000 mt of the ammonia received in February of this year.
India:
The public price for ammonia lags behind the market because of the dearth of spot purchases. The last spot deal of a few weeks ago put the price at $1,060-$1,100/mt CFR. Current discussions are said to be around $1,200/mt CFR, which some traders argued was still too low to be representative of the current market.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers are moving only contract tons. Sources said some discussions are taking place to buy spot tons once a sufficient quantity is built up. Reportedly, producers are looking for $1,400/mt FOB. So far, no deals have been reported at that level, leaving the spot public price at $1,230-$1,245/mt FOB.
Iranian exports of ammonia for January-February 2022 were reported at 63,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This represents a 40 percent drop from the 105,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021.
February exports were reported at 43,000 mt, up slightly from February 2021 exports of 41,000 mt. The main buyer in February 2022 was Turkey with 23,000 mt, followed by India with 18,500 mt.
North Africa:
Sources said Libya and Algeria are turning out material and making sales as soon as quantities are sufficient for a ready vessel. Algeria seems to be focusing its sales on the European market.
Phosphate giant OCP in Morocco is working to make up for its loss of Russian ammonia. Sources said reserves at the OCP facilities are sufficient to allow the company to maintain production into June. To stretch out its supplies, OCP has been looking to buy material from as many sources as possible.
While it is difficult to replace the full 70,000 mt/month that OCP bought from the Russians, sources said the company is making some dramatic moves to keep its supply of ammonia steady. A vessel is currently in Saudi Arabia loading 45,000 mt. Recently, OCP bought material from Indonesia, Argentina, the U.S., and Libya.
Northwest Europe:
The current ammonia price of $1,630-$1,645/mt C&F is high enough for more producers to be able to come back online, even with high natural gas prices. With the Northwest Europe price at its current level, sources said the production cost of 1 mt of ammonia is $1,000-$1,100/mt, allowing producers to run their plants without losing money.
One trader added that the slight dip in natural gas prices experienced this week, along with the subsidies the E.U. is offering to energy intensive industries such as ammonia producers, gives producers an incentive to keep operating. The latest major plant reported ready to go back online is the Yara facility at Havre.
Even with more European plants restarting or stepping up production, the tonnage produced will not make up for the tons lost from the closure of the Black Sea ports and the elimination of exports out of the Baltic Sea.
Reports are circulating that the Baltic states are contemplating banning the transit through their countries of Russian ammonia to the export ports. Without ports such as Ventspils, and with the Black Sea ports closed, Russian producers will be hard pressed to ship product. Sources said none of the Russian ports with access to the Baltic Sea have the necessary terminal facilities to move out ammonia.
Even if material could be moved, sources said the complicated nature of the various sanctions against purchasing material from Russia has most buyers hesitant to step forward. The Russian material on the Gas Cobia is still looking for a home. Sources said the ship is now waiting near Malta for a final destination.
Earlier reports that a Turkish buyer has accepted the much-discounted price for the product turned out to be only a rumor. The holder of the ammonia is said to be offering the material at $1,100/mt CFR, a significant discount given the Northwest European price of more than $1,600/mt C&F. The price is close to the break-even cost of manufacturers in Europe to make 1 mt of ammonia.
Currently, some Russian ammonia is trucked and railed into Finland for the Finnish fertilizer companies. Sources now report that the Finnish railroad authority is considering canceling the contract to move the Russian ammonia by the end of the year. A source said this decision will most likely be taken if the war in Ukraine continues through the year.
Last year Russia sent 305,000 mt of ammonia to Finland, according to Trade Data Monitor, representing about 6.5 percent of all Russian ammonia exports.
Sources said the recent appearance of ammonia offered by Acron raised some eyebrows. Generally, said one source, Acron has not had much ammonia available for export. Now it is offering several cargoes on the open market, with buyers considering how to handle the transactions.
While Acron was not on any of the sanction lists, its main stockholder – Moshe Kantor – just had sanctions slapped on him by the U.K. In addition, even if Acron was not sanctioned by the U.S. or the E.U., the Russian banks Acron used are on the sanctions list, making the transfer of funds difficult.
Indonesia:
January-February 2022 ammonia exports were reported at 315,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, a 16.5 percent drop from the 377,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyers this year were South Korea at 84,000 mt, Japan at 51,000 mt, and India at 45,500 mt.
February 2022 exports were reported at 131,000 mt, down 29 percent from February 2021 exports of 185,000 mt.
Thailand:
January-February 2022 ammonia imports were reported at 26,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 53 percent from the 56,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. February 2022 imports were reported at 18,000 mt, down marginally from the 21,000 mt imported in February 2021.
Total ammonia imports in 2021 were reported at 438,000 mt, with average monthly deliveries at 36,000 mt.