U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa for May stands at $1,425/mt CFR. Sources point to new international trades a few hundred dollars lower, however, which could pull Tampa down again in June.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing remained at $1,450-$1,550/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on supplier and location, with the low reflecting referencing pricing from Koch and the high reported for CF pricing in Illinois and Indiana. The market FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at the $1,475/st level in late April.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $1,425-$1,450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at Beatrice, Neb., and the high at Palmyra, Mo., and out of most Iowa terminals. “We’re just in weather-waiting time,” commented one source at midweek. “All across the Cornbelt, we’re running into some pretty big weather issues.”
Southern Plains:
The ammonia market continued to range from $1,250-$1,275/st FOB Enid and Woodward, Okla., up to $1,325/st FOB Pryor and Verdigris, Okla. The last truck business FOB Beaumont, Texas, was reported at the $1,475/st level, down $25/st from last report.
South Central:
Sources continued to quote truck offers for anhydrous ammonia at $1,300/st FOB Donaldsonville, La., and $1,400/st FOB Cherokee, Ala. No prices were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., or Midway, Tenn. Despite the return to production at Waggaman, La., no current truck pricing was being offered at that location in late April.
Black Sea:
The war in Ukraine is keeping the main ports in the northern part of the Black Sea closed to all traffic. The absence of any ammonia from the area makes price discovery impossible, sources said.
Southern ports of the Black Sea are showing some activity. Sources said the Gas Cobia was slated to unload part of its cargo in Bulgaria this week, but some issues reportedly came up about whether the product was or was not under sanctions. As the week ended, sources said the vessel was at anchorage outside a Bulgarian port.
Small lots of Iranian ammonia are being bought and delivered to a variety of unnamed Turkish buyers, sources said. The deals are not unusual. Turkey is a regular buyer of limited quantities of Iranian product. Of the 116,000 mt Iran exported in the first quarter of this year, Trade Data Monitor reported that Turkey bought about 5,000 mt.
India:
Large ammonia buyers are not venturing into the spot market, sources reported. It seems the main buyers – the DAP producers – are finding it difficult to produce DAP and make a profit, even after the government raised the allowable price and subsidy for DAP. Importing DAP still seems to be the more economical action.
The spot tons that are purchased are by small buyers, said one trader, and most of the cargoes seem to be from Iran. So far this year, India is the single largest buyer of Iranian ammonia. Trade Data Monitor reported that of the total 116,000 mt that Iran exported, India bought 88,000 mt in the first quarter of the year.
Northwest Europe:
The lack of a strong reaction to the Russian move to stop sending natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, along with a steady flow from North Africa and the Western Hemisphere, has pushed down prices. Sources report the price is now at $1,490-$1,500/mt C&F, with more downward pressure.
Natural gas prices in Europe took a momentary leap, sources said, after the Russian announcement about Poland and Bulgaria. Within a day or so, however, industry watchers said they saw little impact on the overall market, and prices quickly corrected downward. The stability that appears to be found in the gas market is apparently making it easier for ammonia producers to decide to keep running their plants in Europe.
Sources said pressure to lower the Northwest European price even more is coming from the lower Tampa price for May and a stable European market.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers continue to cover contracts with little to spare for the spot market. Producers are looking at $1,400/mt FOB, citing the tight balance between supply and demand in the area. Buyers, however, note that they can look from Indonesia to Trinidad for material to back up their bids at $1,000/mt FOB.
Sources said there may be a few extra tons coming out of Ma’aden in May. However, the extra tonnage is not expected to be a major factor in lowering prices. If production ramps up in the third quarter, as expected, prices could soften even as the market looks to replace the tons that can no longer be supplied out of the Black Sea.
North Africa:
Sources said OCP picked up 25,000 mt from Trinidad at $1,125/mt CFR, for an estimated netback of $1,060/mt FOB.