U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa for May continues to stand at $1,425/mt CFR, though some players expect June prices to be lower based on recent trades to other large buyers such as OCP.
U.S. Imports:
March ammonia imports were reported at 263,468 st in the Dept. of Commerce’s most recent trade report, up 5.9% from 248,826 st in the prior year. July-March import totals stood at 1.98 million st, rising 7.0% from the year-ago 1.85 million st.
U.S. Exports:
Ammonia exports from the US in March softened 22.9%, to 26,804 st from the prior-year 34,755 st. Exports totaled 277,419 st for July-March, off 38.8% from the year-ago 452,980 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources said ammonia movement was accelerating with the nice weather, although some growers were reportedly foregoing preplant applications and moving quickly to plant corn.
The ammonia terminal market was quoted at $1,400-$1,475/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at East Dubuque, Ill., and the high at Lima, Ohio. Most Koch and CF terminals were pegged at the $1,450/st FOB level in Illinois and Indiana.
Western Cornbelt:
Preplant ammonia movement picked up steam in the Western Cornbelt during the week, although wet field conditions continued to delay activity in some areas. Prompt truck pricing dropped to $1,355/st FOB Port Neal, Iowa, sources reported, while the regional high remained unchanged at $1,450/st FOB Palmyra, Mo.
Delivered ammonia pricing was reported at $1,400-$1,420/st in Missouri for tons from Enid, Okla., where the FOB price was quoted at the $1,225-$1,250/st level after netbacks.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia pricing remained at $1,500-$1,525/st FOB regional terminals in the Northern Plains, with the low confirmed at Velva, N.D. Delivered ammonia had reportedly increased to $1,650-$1,675/st in North Dakota for very limited offers, however, up from the last reported range of $1,575-$1,600/st DEL.
Great Lakes:
The ammonia market in the Great Lakes region was quoted at $1,400-$1,475/st FOB, depending on location. The Huntington, Ind., market remained at the $1,450/st FOB level. No current offers were confirmed at Courtright, Ont.
Black Sea:
Exports from the area remain shut down. The Russian closures of Ukrainian ports are not allowing any ammonia to be loaded or shipped. Buyers in Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey are able to get their ammonia delivered to ports in the southern portion of the Black Sea.
India:
The bulk of imported ammonia is entering the country under large quantity, formula-based deals. The pricing for these contract tons, mostly from the Arab Gulf, are pegged at $1,000-$1,050/mt CFR, for a netback to the Arab Gulf of $950-$1,000/mt CFR.
The few spot tons that are coming into India, however, seem to be mostly from Iran and in small lots. Sources called the price for these orders at $1,100-$1,150/mt CFR.
Reportedly, the Arab Gulf suppliers are arguing for higher prices, with offers at $1,200-$1,300/mt FOB. The Indian buyers, however, keep pushing back by claiming the price of their orders should be calculated under the terms of their contracts, which is much lower.
The producers seem to be willing to accede to the buyers, said one trader, because any delay in shipping material could lead to a buildup of reserves, which could then lead to a softer market for even spot tons.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers keep pushing for higher prices, especially with Indian buyers, but often settle for less just to keep product flowing. The reported netback for contract tons into India is put at $950-$1,000/mt FOB.
Deals from Arab producers under long-term contracts are denying any buildup of product. While producers want a higher price – sources said they are asking $1,200-$1,300/mt FOB – they seem to be willing to accept a lower price for large shipments to prevent increasing reserves at their facilities.
Sources said if the stockpiles begin to build up too much in the Arab Gulf, buyers could push harder for lower prices. As it is now, sources said only long-term clients are getting any discount. Smaller spot buyers are left scrambling for tons, with many looking to Iran for their ammonia.
Northwest Europe:
Sources said for all practical purposes there is no real market in Northwest Europe. The price for ammonia in the area has fluctuated with the gyrations of natural gas prices. Even at its lower levels, the price for ammonia is still at near record levels.
Sources said if a buyer offered $1,200/mt C&F for ammonia, he could find a seller. However, that price is now seen as too expensive for the buyers, who are facing a backlash against passing on their higher costs to end users.
The last open trade around $1,500/mt C&F was several weeks ago, and seems to have been the acme of the market. Even with lower prices being discussed, sources said buyers are holding back until they really need the product. Traders said this hand-to-mouth market is expected to last as long as there is uncertainty in the natural gas market and as long as prices remain high.
North Africa:
The closure of the Black Sea to exports has denied OCP/Morocco access to about 70,000 mt/month of ammonia. Sources said OCP is so far being successful in replacing those lost shipments.
Last week OCP loaded vessels in Argentina and Oman. This week a vessel is loading in Donaldsonville, La. Agents for OCP are reaching as far as Indonesia for product and are willing to pay premiums to secure what they need.